2121 Meadowlark Ln · Sun City Center, FL 33573

$169,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,516 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 76 Days on market

Built 1983 9,840 sqft lot $99/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Appreciation +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Needs TLC. House was cleaned out. Property is being sold as is. Age of big ticket items unknown. Community is 55+. * * * This is a limited-service listing - Please see realtor remarks for showing instructions. * * *

Key facts

• 9,840 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1983

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: No lease restrictions indicated
• Financial info: Total annual fees $1,198; Total monthly fees $99.83
• HOA & community: Has HOA (Sun City Center Community Association, Inc.; Sun City Center Unit 46 POA); HOA required; Annual association fee $346; Monthly association fee $71; Monthly HOA amount $28.83; Senior community; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (2 spaces)
• Utilities: Public water; Other sewer; Other utilities
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; Fixer condition; One story; Faces southwest
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Other foundation
• Exterior features: Other exterior features; Asphalt road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: Other appliances
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Other flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Other heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: Other laundry features

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $169k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $96 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $169k).
• Recommended offer: $159k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#178 in FL, #2,736 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Cypress Creek Elementary School (math 40% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,491 of 2,144 statewide, top 70%, 957 students, 63% FRL); Shields Middle School (math 29% / reading 27%, grade F, #486 of 571 statewide, top 86%, 1,867 students, 68% FRL); Lennard High School (math 30% / reading 46%, grade F, #328 of 667 statewide, top 50%, 2,404 students, 47% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 35% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Hillsborough average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 605 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($73k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($159k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $64k; list at $169k implies a 164% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $158,860 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.42%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.65% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-21,783
• Equity at exit: $25,198

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-13,098
• Equity at exit: $14,612

Cash invested: $47,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33573

• Home prices YoY: -1.2%
• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 605
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,972 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax from tax record: −$407 /mo · $4,885/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$99
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$414
• Net cashflow: $96

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,852

Max offer price $169,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $191	-5% $143	+0% $96	+5% $48	+10% $0
Rent	-10% $-60	-5% $18	+0% $96	+5% $173	+10% $251
Rate	-1.0pp $181	-0.5pp $139	base $96	+0.5pp $52	+1.0pp $7

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,250
• Closing costs: $5,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 29 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1904 N Pebble Beach Blvd Sun City Center, FL	3.0	2.0	1756	$1,600	$0.91	15d	1	0.30mi
1814 Columbine Pl Sun City Center, FL	2.0	2.0	1516	$2,100	$1.39	26d	1	0.32mi
1750 Atrium Dr Sun City Center, FL	2.0	2.0	1367	$1,750	$1.28	26d	1	0.34mi
9718 Mulberry Marsh Ln Sun City Center, FL	3.0	2.5	1663	$1,973	$1.19	17d	1	0.71mi
15503 Prestwick Rose Pl Unit 1 Sun City Center, FL	3.0	2.5	1666	$2,000	$1.20	26d	1	0.71mi
9637 Pembrooke Pines Dr Sun City Center, FL	2.0	2.5	1548	$2,100	$1.36	26d	1	0.72mi
1408 Nashua Cir Sun City Center, FL	3.0	2.0	2053	$1,900	$0.93	26d	1	0.75mi
9771 Pembrooke Pines Dr Sun City Center, FL	3.0	2.5	1634	$2,025	$1.24	5d	1	0.77mi
810 Oakmont Ave Sun City Center, FL	2.0	2.0	1266	$2,100	$1.66	26d	1	0.78mi
4408 Eternal Prince Dr Sun City Center, FL	3.0	2.0	1451	$1,800	$1.24	26d	1	0.80mi
15504 Florence Hollow Pl Sun City Center, FL	3.0	2.5	1787	$2,150	$1.20	6d	1	0.81mi
2421 E Del Webb Blvd Sun City Center, FL	3.0	2.0	1901	$2,300	$1.21	26d	1	0.90mi
15519 Telford Spring Dr Sun City Center, FL	3.0	2.0	1348	$2,090	$1.55	26d	1	1.05mi
8117 Alamosa Wood Ave Ruskin, FL	3.0	2.0	1346	$1,895	$1.41	26d	1	1.19mi
1104 Desert Hills Dr Sun City Center, FL	2.0	2.0	1383	$1,825	$1.32	19d	1	1.19mi
10324 Geese Trail Cir Sun City Center, FL	3.0	2.0	1672	$2,300	$1.38	0d	1	1.19mi
301 Bryce Ct Sun City Center, FL	2.0	2.0	1830	$1,850	$1.01	26d	1	1.20mi
717 Indian Wells Ave Sun City Center, FL	2.0	2.0	1264	$1,595	$1.26	26d	1	1.20mi
714 Indian Wells Ave Sun City Center, FL	2.0	2.0	1515	$1,695	$1.12	26d	1	1.23mi
1703 Amhurst Cir Sun City Center, FL	2.0	2.0	1550	$1,995	$1.29	6d	1	1.25mi
1528 Chevy Chase Dr Sun City Center, FL	2.0	2.0	1346	$2,000	$1.49	26d	1	1.26mi
701 Cypress Pl Sun City Center, FL	2.0	2.0	1425	$1,700	$1.19	26d	1	1.31mi
16260 Amethyst Key Dr Wimauma, FL	3.0	2.0	1889	$2,300	$1.22	26d	1	1.34mi
102 Wintersong Ln Sun City Center, FL	2.0	2.0	1508	$1,995	$1.32	21d	1	1.38mi
7338 Lumber Port Dr Ruskin, FL	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,975	$1.52	1d	1	1.41mi
1301 Warwick Ct Unit 1301 Sun City Center, FL	1.0	1.0	1102	$1,575	$1.43	26d	1	1.42mi
7329 Lumber Port Dr Ruskin, FL	3.0	2.0	1275	$2,000	$1.57	5d	1	1.45mi
1201 Fordham Dr Sun City Center, FL	2.0	2.0	1582	$1,950	$1.23	19d	1	1.45mi
1005 Rickenbacker Dr Sun City Center, FL	2.0	1.0	1224	$1,595	$1.30	4d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $99 · $1,188/yr

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-09
   price $169,000
3. 2026-03-10
   price $175,000
4. 2026-03-02
   soldstatus $64,000
5. 2026-02-24
   listed $189,000 Active
6. 2012-11-25
   historical
7. 2012-10-23
   listed $134,900
8. 1997-04-30
   soldstatus $76,000
9. 1993-03-01
   soldstatus $82,000
10. 1991-07-01
    soldstatus $82,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,885 · $407/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,885 · $407/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,670
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,467
• − Property taxes: −$4,885
• − Insurance: −$845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,894
• − Management: −$1,894
• − HOA: −$1,188
• − Depreciation: −$4,916
• Taxable loss: −$1,418
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$340
• After-tax cash flow: $1,487/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Sun City Center

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #178
• US rank: #2736

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living B+ Crime B+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sun City Center, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 35,362
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,362
• Household income: $72,834
• Rent vs Own: 17.3% rent · 82.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1382.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 11% Black 10% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 10% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -3.27%
• Current HPI: 272.9767
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.65%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+106.1% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $169,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $175,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-02 Sold (Public Records) $64,000 Public Records
• 2026-02-24 Listed $189,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-11-25 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-10-23 Listed $134,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1997-04-30 Sold (Public Records) $76,000 Public Records
• 1993-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $82,000 Public Records
• 1991-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $82,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+13.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,885 · +11.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.