4684 S One Rd · Slagle, MI 49638

$12,116

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · SingleFamily · 22 Days on market

Built 1970 0.50 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +9.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +0.5/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This property is live on the auction site, and all offers must be submitted through the following link: https://mynextbid.com/property/2895/4684-S-One-Road-Harrietta-MI-49638 Auction Ends: Tuesday, June 9th * * * Unique 2 bedroom hideaway bungalow located on a half acre wooded lot in Harrietta, near the Manistee River, state land and trailheads. Just minutes to Caberfae This cabin has great potential for a vacation space once it's taken to the next level. Will be available on mynextbid.com auction site soon.

Key facts

• Half acre wooded lot
• Trailheads
• State land

Tags

• HALF ACRE WOODED LOT
• NEAR THE MANISTEE RIVER
• STATE LAND
• TRAILHEADS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 1 parking space
• Utilities: No public water listed; No sewer/septic listed; No listed power/utility details
• Home design: 1 1/2-story residential home; Built in 1970
• Construction: Wood exterior; Crawl foundation
• Exterior features: Wooded lot; Shed on property; No water features

Interior

• Kitchen: Small kitchen (approx. 6 x 5)
• Bedrooms: Main-level bedroom (approx. 8 x 10)
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: No listed heating system
• Interior features: Living room approximately 10 x 10; Kitchen approximately 6 x 5; First-floor bedroom

🔨 Auction listing. The $12,116 list price is a nominal opening bid, not a real ask — every metric below is computed on the estimated value $320,256 (ARV from comps), not the list price.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $12k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-17k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $12k).
• Recommended offer: $12k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Mesick Consolidated Schools (rural): math 25% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #286 of 540 in MI (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 4 active listings in the ZIP; 130 units permitted in Wexford County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $28k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (7.9% local appreciation)).
• Wexford County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$44k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($12k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 39.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $11,934 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.32% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -18.73%
• DSCR: 0.17
• GRM: 25.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $320,256
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7864 S 1 ½ Rd	0.18mi	2/1.0	1,014 (-12%)	19mo	$282,000	$278	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.91% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.46×
• Total profit: $40,928
• Equity at exit: $241,327

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.06×
• Total profit: $184,951
• Equity at exit: $477,156

Cash invested: $89,672 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49638

• Home prices YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 4
• Price-to-rent: 1.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,030 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,679
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$400 /mo · $4,804/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$216
• Net cashflow: $-1,400

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,802

Max offer price $117,703

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,178	-5% $-1,289	+0% $-1,400	+5% $-1,510	+10% $-1,621
Rent	-10% $-1,481	-5% $-1,440	+0% $-1,400	+5% $-1,359	+10% $-1,318
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,239	-0.5pp $-1,318	base $-1,400	+0.5pp $-1,483	+1.0pp $-1,567

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $80,064
• Closing costs: $9,608
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $12,116 Active 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $12,116 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $12,116 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $12,116 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $12,116 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $12,116 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $12,116 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $12,116 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $12,116 Active 10 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $12,116 Active 9 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $12,116 Active 8 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $12,116 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on marketlisting id $12,116 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    remarks 516-char remark
15. 2026-06-01
    listed $12,116 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,356
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,939
• − Property taxes: −$4,804
• − Insurance: −$1,601
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$988
• − Management: −$988
• − Depreciation: −$9,317
• Taxable loss: −$23,282
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,588
• After-tax cash flow: $-11,210/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mesick Consolidated Schools
• NCES district ID: 2623670
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $38,415
• Composite: 29.98/100
• National rank: #6367
• State rank: #286 of 540 in MI

Livability — Slagle

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 817

Population outlook (Wexford County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 32,399 people
• By 2030: 31,692 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 29,789 · -8.1%
• By 2050: 27,473 · -15.2%
• By 2075: 21,822 · -32.6%
• By 2100: 15,237 · -53.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Two or more races 12% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Iranian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Wexford

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+34.6) · D 32.0% · R 66.6% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.4pp toward R · 2008: -4.2pp · 2024: -34.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+34.6 2020: R+34.3 2016: R+36.4 2012: R+16.3 2008: R+4.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.91%
• Current HPI: 420.8577
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $12,116 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-29 Listed $12,116 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $619 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.