10954 Lauren Oak Ln S · Jacksonville, FL 32221

$265,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,449 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 2005 9,583 sqft lot Est $259k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.1/30.0
• ARV discount +6.5/15.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Gorgeous, newly remodeled 4 BR,2 BA home. Brand new Carrier HVAC unit, interior/exterior paint, porcelain tile, carpet, wood laminate, stainless steel appliances, custom designed counter tops in kitchen and bathrooms,ceiling fans and fixtures, bathroom items, and blinds. Home has inside laundry closet, double sink in Master bathroom, backs up to woods for privacy. Close to I-10, Cecil Field, and stores and restaurants on Normandy Blvd. No HOA fees! Must see!

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Above ground pool
• New water heater

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• NEW ROOF
• NEW WATER HEATER
• NEW DISHWASHER
• ABOVE GROUND POOL
• PRIVACY FENCE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level; North-facing
• Construction: Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Privacy fencing; Above-ground private pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Microwave; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen / breakfast nook
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast nook; Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Entrance foyer; Open floorplan; Primary bath with tub and shower; Split-bedroom layout; Vaulted ceilings
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-105 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $246k (7.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $221k (16.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $221k (16.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.0% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Normandy Village Elementary School (math 37% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,709 of 2,144 statewide, top 81%, 495 students, 78% FRL) — zoned schools average 78% FRL vs 49% district-wide (29 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 217 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($83k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 8 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $170k; list at $265k implies a 56% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $221,409 (16.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.70%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $259,371
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10994 Lauren Oak Ln S	0.07mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,519 (+5%)	9mo	$260,000	$171	76
2245 Kistlers Rdg Way	0.46mi	4/2.0	1,456 (+0%)	7mo	$279,999	$192	72
2602 Carson Oaks Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,471 (+2%)	9mo	$250,000	$170	57
2461 Tanner Lake Ct	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,631 (+13%)	11mo	$292,000	$179	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-51,536
• Equity at exit: $39,512

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-61,144
• Equity at exit: $22,912

Cash invested: $74,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32221

• Home prices YoY: -19.2%
• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 217
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,214 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax from tax record: −$354 /mo · $4,250/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$465
• Net cashflow: $-105

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,347

Max offer price $246,421

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $45	-5% $-30	+0% $-105	+5% $-180	+10% $-255
Rent	-10% $-280	-5% $-193	+0% $-105	+5% $-18	+10% $70
Rate	-1.0pp $28	-0.5pp $-38	base $-105	+0.5pp $-174	+1.0pp $-244

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,250
• Closing costs: $7,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2210 Kistlers Ridge Way Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1456	$1,846	$1.27	24d	1	0.50mi
2167 Kistlers Ridge Way Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1456	$1,900	$1.30	15d	1	0.57mi
2274 Tyson Lake Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1710	$1,975	$1.15	3d	1	1.13mi
10281 Magnolia Hills Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1564	$1,900	$1.21	24d	1	1.18mi
10628 Waterfield Rd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1429	$1,900	$1.33	24d	1	1.19mi
2081 Chaffee Rd S #19 Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1152	$1,619	$1.41	24d	1	1.19mi
2120 Blair Rd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1272	$1,675	$1.32	24d	1	1.30mi
2067 Tyson Lake Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1564	$1,935	$1.24	2d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-18
   remarks 344-char remark
2. 2026-06-18
   listed $265,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,250 · $354/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,250 · $354/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,569
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,844
• − Property taxes: −$4,250
• − Insurance: −$1,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,126
• − Management: −$2,126
• − Depreciation: −$7,709
• Taxable loss: −$5,811
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,395
• After-tax cash flow: $132/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Duval
• NCES district ID: 1200480
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,987
• Composite: 38.97/100
• National rank: #4076
• State rank: #48 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #911

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jacksonville, FL
• County: Duval County · 1,015,274 people
• City population: 979,034
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 32,833
• Household income: $82,969
• Rent vs Own: 21.4% rent · 78.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 516.0

Population outlook (Duval County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,013,010 people
• By 2030: 1,059,228 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,141,439 · +12.7%
• By 2050: 1,205,258 · +19.0%
• By 2075: 1,324,282 · +30.7%
• By 2100: 1,319,620 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Black 33% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Vietnamese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Duval

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.4pp no change · 2008: -1.9pp · 2024: -1.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.5 2020: D+3.8 2016: R+1.5 2012: R+3.6 2008: R+1.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -62.74%
• Current HPI: 263.7591
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.12%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-81.8% since first listed

24 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Listed $265,000 realMLS
• 2018-09-18 Sold (Public Records) $169,900 Public Records
• 2018-09-14 Sold (MLS) $169,900 realMLS
• 2018-08-08 Pending — realMLS
• 2018-08-04 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2018-07-31 Listed $169,900 realMLS
• 2018-05-04 Sold (MLS) $125,000 realMLS
• 2018-04-15 Pending — realMLS
• 2018-04-15 Relisted — realMLS
• 2018-04-14 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2018-04-13 Relisted — realMLS
• 2018-04-12 Pending — realMLS
• 2018-04-02 Relisted — realMLS
• 2018-03-29 Pending — realMLS
• 2018-03-16 Price Changed $124,900 realMLS
• 2018-03-13 Relisted — realMLS
• 2018-03-10 Pending — realMLS
• 2018-03-02 Price Changed $134,900 realMLS
• 2018-02-15 Relisted — realMLS
• 2018-02-10 Pending — realMLS
• 2018-02-02 Price Changed $145,600 realMLS
• 2018-02-02 Price Changed $134,900 realMLS
• 2017-12-14 Price Changed $145,600 realMLS
• 2017-12-14 Listed $1,456,000 realMLS

Property tax history

+6.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,250 · +10.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.