1512 Vega Dr · Dallas, TX 75126

$249,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,517 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 2021 4,617 sqft lot Est $243k · at est. $37/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• ARV discount +6.2/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover this stunning home in the heart of Travis Ranch, just a short drive from Dallas and the picturesque shoreline of Lake Ray Hubbard. Designed with both comfort and functionality in mind, this single-story residence boasts an open-concept layout ideal for entertaining guests or enjoying quiet everyday moments. Step inside to a bright, airy living space with ample wall space for your furniture and décor. Oversized windows flood the home with natural light, while stylish blinds offer privacy when needed. At the heart of the home, the chef-inspired kitchen impresses with granite countertops, an expansive center island, and a comfortable dining nook — perfect for family meals

Key facts

• Dual vanities
• Granite countertops
• Open-concept layout

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• CHEF-INSPIRED KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• EXPANSIVE CENTER ISLAND
• SPA-LIKE ENSUITE BATHROOM
• DUAL VANITIES

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Listing accepts Cash, Conventional, FHA, and VA financing
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA with annual fee; HOA provides full use of facilities; HOA fee paid annually; HOA managed by Action Property Management; Community pool, jogging/bike path, and sidewalks

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; 2 covered parking spaces
• Utilities: MUD water; MUD sewer; Municipal Utility District service
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; One story; Preowned (built in 2021)
• Construction: Built in 2021; Brick, siding, and wood construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Subdivision: Travis Ranch Ph 2i; Less than 0.5 acre lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Electric range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level); Primary bedroom on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Electric cooling; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Decorative lighting; High-speed internet available; Window coverings; One living area; One dining area; Total of 9 rooms; Single-level (one story)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup on site

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-277 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $201k (19.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $218k (12.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $201k (19.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 2.3% in Dallas — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#24 in TX, #1,380 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Forney ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #234 of 826 in TX (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lewis El (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 763 students, 50% FRL); Brown Middle (math 29% / reading 39%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 673 students, 56% FRL); North Forney H S (math 32% / reading 45%, grade F, #866 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 2,502 students, 49% FRL) — zoned schools average 52% FRL vs 26% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 2200 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $201,037 (19.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.75%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $242,720
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1719 Ackerly Dr	0.16mi	3/2.5	1,540 (+2%)	3mo	$260,000	$169	85
2041 Henrietta Dr	0.27mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (+3%)	2mo	$240,900	$154	76
2124 Hobby Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,530 (+1%)	3mo	$220,000	$144	74
1610 Kalamath St	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,418 (-6%)	1mo	$225,000	$159	74
2340 Neff Ln	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,418 (-6%)	4mo	$269,900	$190	71
2804 Lenham Ln	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,440 (-5%)	2mo	$243,000	$169	63
5520 Yarborough Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,596 (+5%)	0mo	$250,000	$157	61
1685 Timpson Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,684 (+11%)	2mo	$270,000	$160	60
2311 Mount Olive Ln	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,662 (+10%)	4mo	$259,990	$156	54
4407 Stockdale Ln	0.52mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,703 (+12%)	1mo	$285,000	$167	49
1028 Ingram Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,376 (-9%)	4mo	$229,000	$166	47
1123 Johnson City Ave	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,705 (+12%)	3mo	$249,900	$147	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-61,375
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: -30.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.27×
• Total profit: $-88,923
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75126

• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 2200
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,179 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$547 /mo · $6,559/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$37
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$458
• Net cashflow: $-277

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,530

Max offer price $201,037

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-136	-5% $-206	+0% $-277	+5% $-348	+10% $-419
Rent	-10% $-449	-5% $-363	+0% $-277	+5% $-191	+10% $-105
Rate	-1.0pp $-151	-0.5pp $-214	base $-277	+0.5pp $-342	+1.0pp $-408

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 34 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1804 Arcola Ct Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	1619	$1,895	$1.17	17d	1	0.06mi
1804 Arcola Ct Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	1619	$1,895	$1.17	14d	1	0.06mi
1329 Rosenberg Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2000	$2,100	$1.05	45d	1	0.09mi
1427 Ganado Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1512	$2,095	$1.39	24d	1	0.09mi
1427 Ganado Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1520	$1,995	$1.31	9d	1	0.09mi
2907 Doggett Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2139	$2,950	$1.38	0d	1	0.23mi
1004 Trickham Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1825	$2,250	$1.23	0d	1	0.52mi
2047 Enchanted Rock Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1636	$2,000	$1.22	5d	1	0.63mi
2143 Erika Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1680	$2,200	$1.31	18d	1	0.64mi
2258 Templin Ave Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1988	$2,300	$1.16	20d	1	0.67mi
2302 Tombstone Rd Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1905	$2,100	$1.10	45d	1	0.76mi
3935 Sidney Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2003	$2,675	$1.34	45d	1	0.77mi
1037 Johnson City Ave Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1660	$1,895	$1.14	21d	1	0.79mi
1037 Johnson City Ave Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1660	$1,895	$1.14	26d	1	0.79mi
1031 Johnson City Ave Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1609	$1,950	$1.21	6d	1	0.81mi
3127 Maverick Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2129	$2,750	$1.29	24d	1	0.81mi
2010 Diamondback Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1750	$2,099	$1.20	26d	1	0.83mi
1606 Governors Blvd Heath, TX	3.0	2.5	1791	$3,000	$1.68	26d	1	0.83mi
1622 Governors Blvd Heath, TX	3.0	2.5	1800	$3,000	$1.67	45d	1	0.83mi
2117 Silsbee Ct Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1663	$1,995	$1.20	18d	1	0.87mi
5672 McClelland St Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	1950	$1,999	$1.03	9d	1	0.89mi
5681 McClelland St Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	1950	$2,070	$1.06	22d	1	0.92mi
5693 McClelland St Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	1685	$1,839	$1.09	9d	1	0.92mi
5661 McClelland St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1590	$1,995	$1.25	6d	1	0.92mi
2014 Zavala Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1616	$2,100	$1.30	6d	1	0.95mi
5529 McClelland St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,750	$1.21	8d	1	0.99mi
5529 McClelland St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,750	$1.21	14d	1	0.99mi
5537 Berea St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1239	$1,780	$1.44	0d	1	1.00mi
2415 Anton Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1891	$2,200	$1.16	19d	1	1.02mi
5516 Berea St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,875	$1.48	45d	1	1.02mi
2401 Lalun Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1854	$2,089	$1.13	9d	1	1.29mi
2402 Buchanan Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1858	$2,399	$1.29	26d	1	1.32mi
2402 Buchanan Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1858	$2,299	$1.24	3d	1	1.32mi
2157 Clarion Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1608	$1,975	$1.23	45d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $37 · $444/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-21
   remarks 686-char remark
2. 2026-06-21
   listed $249,999 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,559 · $547/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,559 · $547/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,152
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$6,559
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,092
• − Management: −$2,092
• − HOA: −$444
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$7,563
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,815
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,511/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Forney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819560
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $86,679
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3812
• State rank: #234 of 826 in TX

Livability — Dallas

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #24
• US rank: #1380

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Kaufman County · 122,338 people
• City population: 1,168,437
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,799
• Household income: $103,673
• Rent vs Own: 19.5% rent · 80.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1306.0

Population outlook (Kaufman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,716 people
• By 2030: 150,815 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 174,877 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 198,020 · +42.8%
• By 2075: 251,908 · +81.6%
• By 2100: 285,325 · +105.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Black 25% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 14% Arabic 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kaufman

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.6% · R 63.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.93%
• Current HPI: 148.5749
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.42%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-21 Listed $249,999 NTREIS

Property tax history

+64.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,559 · -6.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.