807 Swan St · Rochester Hills, MI 48309

$35,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · SingleFamily · 90 Days on market

Built 2017 $36/sqft · 86% below area $835/mo HOA · 43% of rent ↓ 24% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this charming ranch home in Avon on the Lake's 55+ active adult community in Rochester Hills, conveniently located just minutes from M-59 and I-75. Enjoy easy access to downtown Rochester's restaurants, shopping, entertainment, golf courses, and more! Residents love the community's exceptional amenities, including an on-site library, fitness center, billiards area, and a variety of planned social events. Step inside to a spacious living room that flows seamlessly into the dining area and kitchen, creating an inviting open layout. The kitchen features sleek, modern cabinetry with ample storage and includes all appliances. The primary suite offers a private ensuite bathroom, while an additional bedroom, full bathroom, and convenient laundry room complete the home. A storage shed adds extra functionality. Don't miss your opportunity to enjoy low-maintenance living in this vibrant community! Schedule your private tour today!

Key facts

• Fitness center
• Billiards area
• Open layout

Tags

• ACTIVE ADULT COMMUNITY
• ON-SITE LIBRARY
• FITNESS CENTER
• BILLIARDS AREA
• PLANNED SOCIAL EVENTS
• OPEN LAYOUT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $35k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $460 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $35k).
• Recommended offer: $33k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 22.1% vs local median 3.2% in Rochester Hills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#127 in MI, #3,163 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Avondale School District (suburban): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #162 of 540 in MI (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 149 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,614 units permitted in Oakland County in 2024 (721 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $242 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Oakland County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($33k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (24%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 43% of rent.

Recommended offer $32,900 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.56% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 56.30%
• DSCR: 3.50
• GRM: 1.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $253,600
• List price: $35,000
• Delta: -86.20%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 19 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
113 Whippoorwill Ln	0.19mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,100 (+15%)	9mo	$100,000	$91	54
200 Flicker St	0.18mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,056 (+10%)	20mo	$43,000	$41	54
3075 Willet Ave	0.73mi	2/1.0	942 (-2%)	10mo	$257,580	$273	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 55.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.46×
• Total profit: $24,154
• Equity at exit: $5,219

10-year hold

• IRR: 60.6%
• Equity multiple: 7.22×
• Total profit: $60,943
• Equity at exit: $3,026

Cash invested: $9,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48309

• Active inventory: 149
• Price-to-rent: 1.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,945 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$184
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$44 /mo · $525/yr
• Insurance: −$15
• HOA: −$835
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$408
• Net cashflow: $460

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,363

Max offer price $35,000

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $484	-5% $472	+0% $460	+5% $448	+10% $436
Rent	-10% $306	-5% $383	+0% $460	+5% $537	+10% $613
Rate	-1.0pp $477	-0.5pp $469	base $460	+0.5pp $451	+1.0pp $441

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,750
• Closing costs: $1,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2600 W Auburn Rd Rochester Hills, MI	2.0–3.0	2.0	1264	$1,309	$1.04	5d	1	0.38mi
2900 W Hamlin Rd Rochester Hills, MI	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1248	$2,710	$2.17	0d	39	0.55mi
2450 Norfolk Unit 4104 Rochester Hills, MI	1.0	1.0	1000	$1,590	$1.59	22d	1	0.61mi
3190 Fallen Oaks Ct Rochester Hills, MI	1.0	1.0	950	$3,180	$3.35	44d	1	1.19mi
3280 S Adams Rd Auburn Hills, MI	2.0	1.0	780	$1,426	$1.83	3d	2	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $835 · $10,020/yr
• Likely covers: gym

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $35,000 Active 90 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $35,000 Active 89 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $35,000 Active 88 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $35,000 Active 87 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $35,000 Active 85 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $35,000 Active 84 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $35,000 Active 81 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $35,000 Active 80 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $35,000 Active 79 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $35,000 Active 76 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $35,000 Active 75 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $35,000 Active 74 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $35,000 Active 73 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $35,000 Active 72 DOM
15. 2026-04-09
    price $35,000 945-char remark

    Show marketing remark (945 chars)

    Welcome to this charming ranch home in Avon on the Lake's 55+ active adult community in Rochester Hills, conveniently located just minutes from M-59 and I-75. Enjoy easy access to downtown Rochester's restaurants, shopping, entertainment, golf courses, and more! Residents love the community's exceptional amenities, including an on-site library, fitness center, billiards area, and a variety of planned social events. Step inside to a spacious living room that flows seamlessly into the dining area and kitchen, creating an inviting open layout. The kitchen features sleek, modern cabinetry with ample storage and includes all appliances. The primary suite offers a private ensuite bathroom, while an additional bedroom, full bathroom, and convenient laundry room complete the home. A storage shed adds extra functionality. Don't miss your opportunity to enjoy low-maintenance living in this vibrant community! Schedule your private tour today!

16. 2026-04-08
    price $35,000 969-char remark

    Show marketing remark (969 chars)

    Welcome to this charming ranch home in Avon on the Lake’s 55+ active adult community in Rochester Hills, conveniently located just minutes from M-59 and I-75. Enjoy easy access to downtown Rochester’s restaurants, shopping, entertainment, golf courses, and more! Residents love the community’s exceptional amenities, including an on-site library, fitness center, billiards area, and a variety of planned social events. Step inside to a spacious living room that flows seamlessly into the dining area and kitchen, creating an inviting open layout. The kitchen features sleek, modern cabinetry with ample storage and includes all appliances. The primary suite offers a private ensuite bathroom, while an additional bedroom, full bathroom, and convenient laundry room complete the home. A storage shed adds extra functionality. Don’t miss your opportunity to enjoy low-maintenance living in this vibrant community! Schedule your private tour today!

17. 2026-03-25
    price $44,999 945-char remark

    Show marketing remark (945 chars)

    Welcome to this charming ranch home in Avon on the Lake's 55+ active adult community in Rochester Hills, conveniently located just minutes from M-59 and I-75. Enjoy easy access to downtown Rochester's restaurants, shopping, entertainment, golf courses, and more! Residents love the community's exceptional amenities, including an on-site library, fitness center, billiards area, and a variety of planned social events. Step inside to a spacious living room that flows seamlessly into the dining area and kitchen, creating an inviting open layout. The kitchen features sleek, modern cabinetry with ample storage and includes all appliances. The primary suite offers a private ensuite bathroom, while an additional bedroom, full bathroom, and convenient laundry room complete the home. A storage shed adds extra functionality. Don't miss your opportunity to enjoy low-maintenance living in this vibrant community! Schedule your private tour today!

18. 2026-03-24
    price $44,999 969-char remark

    Show marketing remark (969 chars)

    Welcome to this charming ranch home in Avon on the Lake’s 55+ active adult community in Rochester Hills, conveniently located just minutes from M-59 and I-75. Enjoy easy access to downtown Rochester’s restaurants, shopping, entertainment, golf courses, and more! Residents love the community’s exceptional amenities, including an on-site library, fitness center, billiards area, and a variety of planned social events. Step inside to a spacious living room that flows seamlessly into the dining area and kitchen, creating an inviting open layout. The kitchen features sleek, modern cabinetry with ample storage and includes all appliances. The primary suite offers a private ensuite bathroom, while an additional bedroom, full bathroom, and convenient laundry room complete the home. A storage shed adds extra functionality. Don’t miss your opportunity to enjoy low-maintenance living in this vibrant community! Schedule your private tour today!

19. 2026-03-20
    listed $45,900 Active 945-char remark

    Show marketing remark (969 chars)

    Welcome to this charming ranch home in Avon on the Lake’s 55+ active adult community in Rochester Hills, conveniently located just minutes from M-59 and I-75. Enjoy easy access to downtown Rochester’s restaurants, shopping, entertainment, golf courses, and more! Residents love the community’s exceptional amenities, including an on-site library, fitness center, billiards area, and a variety of planned social events. Step inside to a spacious living room that flows seamlessly into the dining area and kitchen, creating an inviting open layout. The kitchen features sleek, modern cabinetry with ample storage and includes all appliances. The primary suite offers a private ensuite bathroom, while an additional bedroom, full bathroom, and convenient laundry room complete the home. A storage shed adds extra functionality. Don’t miss your opportunity to enjoy low-maintenance living in this vibrant community! Schedule your private tour today!

20. 2026-03-20
    listed $45,900 Active 969-char remark

    Show marketing remark (969 chars)

    Welcome to this charming ranch home in Avon on the Lake’s 55+ active adult community in Rochester Hills, conveniently located just minutes from M-59 and I-75. Enjoy easy access to downtown Rochester’s restaurants, shopping, entertainment, golf courses, and more! Residents love the community’s exceptional amenities, including an on-site library, fitness center, billiards area, and a variety of planned social events. Step inside to a spacious living room that flows seamlessly into the dining area and kitchen, creating an inviting open layout. The kitchen features sleek, modern cabinetry with ample storage and includes all appliances. The primary suite offers a private ensuite bathroom, while an additional bedroom, full bathroom, and convenient laundry room complete the home. A storage shed adds extra functionality. Don’t miss your opportunity to enjoy low-maintenance living in this vibrant community! Schedule your private tour today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,341
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,961
• − Property taxes: −$525
• − Insurance: −$175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,867
• − Management: −$1,867
• − HOA: −$10,020
• − Depreciation: −$1,018
• Taxable income: $5,908
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,418
• After-tax cash flow: $4,099/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Avondale School District
• NCES district ID: 2603690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,549
• Composite: 37.33/100
• National rank: #4442
• State rank: #162 of 540 in MI

Livability — Rochester Hills

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #127
• US rank: #3163

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rochester Hills, MI
• City population: 44,714
• Population (ZIP): 30,254

Population outlook (Oakland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,335,747 people
• By 2030: 1,375,100 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 1,435,385 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 1,469,250 · +10.0%
• By 2075: 1,531,946 · +14.7%
• By 2100: 1,450,485 · +8.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Asian 12% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Other Indo-European 6% Chinese 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Oakland

• 2024 margin: D (+10.6) · D 54.4% · R 43.8% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: 14.5pp · 2024: 10.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.6 2020: D+14.1 2016: D+8.1 2012: D+8.1 2008: D+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -136.99%
• Current HPI: 201.9197
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-23.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $35,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $35,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $44,999 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $44,999 REALCOMP
• 2026-03-20 Listed $45,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-03-20 Listed $45,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS