840 SE Defender Dr · Watertown, FL 32025

$199,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,327 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 156 Days on market

Built 1970 0.27 ac lot Est $210k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.9/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.7/15.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Don't miss this charming 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom home offering 1,679 square feet of comfortable living space and a brand new roof installed in 2024. Step outside to a fully fenced backyard, perfect for pets, kids, entertaining, or simply enjoying your own private retreat. The included shed provides extra storage, a workshop, or hobby space. Whether you're a first time homebuyer looking for the perfect place to call home or an investor searching for your next opportunity, this property checks all the boxes. Conveniently located just minutes from restaurants, shopping, hospitals, schools, and everyday essentials, you'll love the accessibility and lifestyle this location provides. Homes with thi

Key facts

• Near schools
• Near hospitals
• Fenced in backyard

Tags

• BRAND-NEW ROOF
• FENCED IN BACKYARD
• IDEAL FOR STORAGE
• NEAR RESTAURANTS
• NEAR HOSPITALS
• NEAR SCHOOLS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage; On-street parking available
• Home design: Residential property; One-story
• Construction: Brick and frame construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on a 0.27-acre lot
• Exterior features: Chain link fencing; Shed(s); Workshop; Irregular lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Refrigerator; Microwave
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Refrigerator; Microwave

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $96 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $179k (10.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $176k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 5.5% in Watertown — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#798 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Columbia (town): math 53% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #25 of 73 in FL (top 34%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 143 active listings in the ZIP; 178 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($55k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Columbia County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 156 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $74k; list at $200k implies a 170% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,560 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 156 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.06%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $209,666
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
208 SE Elm Loop	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,230 (-7%)	7mo	$192,500	$157	74
465 SE Golf Club Ave	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,215 (-8%)	0mo	$175,000	$144	72
201 SE Rosewood Cir	0.09mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,220 (-8%)	7mo	$187,000	$153	72
173 SE Jenese Way	0.21mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,216 (-8%)	0mo	$180,000	$148	71
186 SE Rosewood Cir	0.11mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,448 (+9%)	6mo	$235,000	$162	68
741 SE Rosewood Cir	0.12mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,193 (-10%)	6mo	$189,000	$158	67
772 SE Defender Dr	0.07mi	3/1.5	1,509 (+14%)	8mo	$170,000	$113	66
176 SE Dekle Way	0.45mi	3/1.0	1,390 (+5%)	3mo	$145,000	$104	65
187 SE Elm Loop	0.20mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,189 (-10%)	6mo	$202,500	$170	63
240 SE Cameron Ter	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,225 (-8%)	5mo	$235,000	$192	56
465 SE Rosewood Cir	0.30mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,488 (+12%)	7mo	$255,000	$171	56
205 SE Tristin Ln	0.27mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,151 (-13%)	6mo	$210,000	$182	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.05×
• Total profit: $114,760
• Equity at exit: $179,725

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.96×
• Total profit: $333,122
• Equity at exit: $387,585

Cash invested: $55,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32025

• Home prices YoY: 6.8%
• Active inventory: 143
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,792 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,046
• Tax from tax record: −$191 /mo · $2,287/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$376
• Net cashflow: $96

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,671

Max offer price $199,500

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $209	-5% $152	+0% $96	+5% $40	+10% $-17
Rent	-10% $-46	-5% $25	+0% $96	+5% $167	+10% $238
Rate	-1.0pp $196	-0.5pp $147	base $96	+0.5pp $44	+1.0pp $-8

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,875
• Closing costs: $5,985
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 35 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $199,500 Active 156 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,500 Active 155 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,500 Active 154 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,500 Active 153 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,500 Active 152 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,500 Active 150 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $199,500 Active 149 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,500 Active 146 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,500 Active 145 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,500 Active 144 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $199,500 Active 141 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,500 Active 140 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,500 Active 139 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,500 Active 138 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    remarks 699-char remark
16. 2026-06-01
    price $199,500 Active 137 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $213,500 Active 137 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $213,500 Active 136 DOM
19. 2026-01-15
    listed $213,500 Active
20. 2025-06-09
    status Active
21. 2025-06-09
    price $219,900
22. 2025-01-14
    listed $220,400 Active
23. 2024-09-16
    price $226,900
24. 2024-07-22
    listed $237,400 Active
25. 2024-04-04
    listed $228,500 Active
26. 2023-06-26
    status Active
27. 2023-06-11
    historical Active Under Contract
28. 2023-05-31
    listed $210,000 Active
29. 2022-01-23
    historical
30. 2021-10-29
    listed $180,000
31. 2017-06-29
    soldstatus $74,000
32. 2008-11-07
    soldstatus $115,000
33. 2004-10-01
    soldstatus $78,000
34. 1989-08-01
    soldstatus $42,500
35. 1983-09-01
    soldstatus $35,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,287 · $191/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,287 · $191/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,508
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,175
• − Property taxes: −$2,287
• − Insurance: −$998
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,721
• − Management: −$1,721
• − Depreciation: −$5,804
• Taxable loss: −$2,197
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$527
• After-tax cash flow: $1,680/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Columbia
• NCES district ID: 1200360
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $40,053
• Composite: 44.74/100
• National rank: #2750
• State rank: #25 of 73 in FL

Livability — Watertown

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #798
• US rank: #18481

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Watertown, FL
• County: Columbia County · 40,507 people
• Metro: Lake City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 22,948
• Household income: $55,004
• Rent vs Own: 40.1% rent · 59.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 754.0

Population outlook (Columbia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,129 people
• By 2030: 67,501 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 65,465 · -3.9%
• By 2050: 63,058 · -7.4%
• By 2075: 56,291 · -17.4%
• By 2100: 45,243 · -33.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Black 20% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Columbia

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.2) · D 24.6% · R 74.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.4pp toward R · 2008: -33.8pp · 2024: -50.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.2 2020: R+45.2 2016: R+44.5 2012: R+36.7 2008: R+33.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 17.57%
• Current HPI: 276.7253
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lake City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+501.4% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-15 Listed $213,500 NFMLS
• 2025-06-09 Relisted — NFMLS
• 2025-06-09 Price Changed $219,900 NFMLS
• 2025-01-14 Listed $220,400 NFMLS
• 2024-09-16 Price Changed $226,900 NFMLS
• 2024-07-22 Listed $237,400 NFMLS
• 2024-04-04 Listed $228,500 NFMLS
• 2023-06-26 Relisted — NFMLS
• 2023-06-11 Contingent — NFMLS
• 2023-05-31 Listed $210,000 NFMLS
• 2022-01-23 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-10-29 Listed $180,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-06-29 Sold (MLS) $74,000 NFMLS
• 2008-11-07 Sold (Public Records) $115,000 Public Records
• 2004-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $78,000 Public Records
• 1989-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $42,500 Public Records
• 1983-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $35,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,287 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.