521 Old Western Pass · Sonterra, TX 76537

$209,524

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,522 sqft · SingleFamily · 9 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $138/sqft · 9% below area Est $231k · 9% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.7/30.0
• ARV discount +11.6/15.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Enter through the front porch into a foyer with two bedrooms and a full bath located near the front of the home. The laundry room and coat closet are also accessible from this hallway. At the center of the home, the kitchen opens to the dining area and great room, creating a spacious main living space. Toward the back, the primary bedroom features a walk-in closet and a primary bath. A patio is accessible through the great room, and the two-car garage connects to the home through a hallway near the foyer.

Key facts

• Laundry room
• Kitchen
• Front porch

Tags

• FRONT PORCH
• LAUNDRY ROOM
• COAT CLOSET
• KITCHEN
• DINING AREA
• GREAT ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $210k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $167 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $187k (11.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $187k (11.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 4.4% in Sonterra — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Jarrell ISD (rural): math 19% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #713 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Jarrell El (math 19% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,277 of 4,322 statewide, top 77%, 785 students, 62% FRL); Jarrell Middle (math 21% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,258 of 1,662 statewide, top 77%, 741 students, 64% FRL); Jarrell H S (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,112 of 1,632 statewide, top 70%, 868 students, 58% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 1040 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 55% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 7,543 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (1,425 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Williamson County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $186,554 (11.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.42%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $230,590
• List price: $209,524
• Delta: -9.14%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
512 Old Western Pass	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,522 (0%)	2mo	$230,990	$152	97
525 Old Western Pass	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,412 (-7%)	2mo	$230,190	$163	86
516 Old Western Pass	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,412 (-7%)	1mo	$228,490	$162	86
136 Star Packer Ln	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,418 (-7%)	1mo	$229,999	$162	81
229 Brannigan Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,402 (-8%)	2mo	$236,990	$169	81
165 Star Packer Ln	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,409 (-7%)	0mo	$213,999	$152	80
132 Star Packer Ln	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,409 (-7%)	2mo	$211,499	$150	79
148 Star Packer Ln	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,409 (-7%)	2mo	$212,999	$151	79
125 Hatari Trl	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,501 (-1%)	2mo	$254,990	$170	66
125 Paradise Canyon Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,305 (-14%)	0mo	$269,900	$207	57
101 Captain Dooley Ln	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,305 (-14%)	1mo	$269,900	$207	56
149 Hatari Trl	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,408 (-8%)	1mo	$249,990	$178	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-28,833
• Equity at exit: $31,241

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-32,767
• Equity at exit: $18,116

Cash invested: $58,667 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 87 active · 42 under contract
• Months of supply: 13.4 mo (7%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $240,990 ($156/sqft)
• Median days on market: 61 d
• This list price: 17% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -2.9% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76537

• Home prices YoY: -14.4%
• Rents YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 1040
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,866 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,099
• Tax from tax record: −$121 /mo · $1,447/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$392
• Net cashflow: $167

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,654

Max offer price $209,524

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $286	-5% $226	+0% $167	+5% $108	+10% $49
Rent	-10% $20	-5% $93	+0% $167	+5% $241	+10% $315
Rate	-1.0pp $273	-0.5pp $220	base $167	+0.5pp $113	+1.0pp $58

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,381
• Closing costs: $6,286
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
113 Star Pass Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1417	$1,500	$1.06	79d	1	0.08mi
137 Star Pass Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1418	$1,700	$1.20	43d	1	0.10mi
149 Star Pass Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1418	$1,700	$1.20	24d	1	0.11mi
360 Brannigan Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1409	$1,700	$1.21	93d	1	0.11mi
153 Star Pass Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1418	$1,700	$1.20	63d	1	0.11mi
332 McLintock Rd Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1877	$1,875	$1.00	0d	1	0.23mi
201 Fighting Seabees Run Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,900	$1.14	103d	1	0.25mi
313 McLintock Rd Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1855	$2,000	$1.08	98d	1	0.29mi
313 McLintock Rd Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1855	$1,830	$0.99	60d	1	0.29mi
221 Barbary Coast Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,650	$1.14	56d	1	0.30mi
120 Morrison Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1580	$2,210	$1.40	112d	1	0.31mi
229 Night Riders Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1638	$1,600	$0.98	24d	1	0.31mi
229 Barbary Coast Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1935	$1,800	$0.93	83d	1	0.31mi
112 Old Stagecoach Rd Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1592	$1,800	$1.13	0d	1	0.35mi
105 McLintock Rd Jarrell, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1773	$2,055	$1.16	0d	1	0.35mi
121 Old Stagecoach Rd Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1531	$1,800	$1.18	4d	1	0.38mi
125 Paradise Canyon Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1305	$2,095	$1.61	78d	1	0.38mi
216 The Duke Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1413	$1,700	$1.20	77d	1	0.54mi
204 Robert Hightower Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1676	$1,750	$1.04	0d	1	0.55mi
1109 Paradise Canyon Cv Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1851	$1,950	$1.05	0d	1	0.68mi
130 Wild Wind Cv Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,835	$1.15	43d	1	0.84mi
252 Wild Wind Trl Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1243	$1,650	$1.33	113d	1	0.90mi
107 Wild Wind Cv Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1214	$1,700	$1.40	139d	1	0.91mi
261 Wild Wind Trl Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1845	$1,975	$1.07	0d	1	0.91mi
154 Hammond Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,799	$1.20	88d	1	1.01mi
112 Ragnar Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1251	$1,495	$1.20	112d	1	1.04mi
112 Ragnar Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1251	$1,495	$1.20	115d	1	1.04mi
516 Taggart Trl Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1761	$1,750	$0.99	10d	1	1.07mi
504 Rusty DR Lot Rusty Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1900	$1,795	$0.94	42d	1	1.09mi
504 Rusty DR Lot Rusty Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1900	$1,795	$0.94	24d	1	1.09mi
712 Taggart Trl Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1613	$2,000	$1.24	24d	1	1.09mi
701 Taggart Trl Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1251	$1,650	$1.32	0d	1	1.13mi
604 Rusty DR Lot Rusty Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1737	$1,795	$1.03	24d	1	1.13mi
104 Hellfighters Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1619	$2,000	$1.24	139d	1	1.17mi
583 Taggart Trl Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1613	$1,850	$1.15	10d	1	1.18mi
603 Taggart Trl Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1251	$1,700	$1.36	5d	1	1.20mi
449 Stone Water Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1674	$1,900	$1.14	139d	1	1.22mi
409 Stone Water Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1510	$1,800	$1.19	24d	1	1.29mi
316 Stone Water Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1909	$1,800	$0.94	88d	1	1.30mi
521 Anconia Ct Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1251	$1,650	$1.32	4d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $209,524 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $209,524 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $237,690 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $237,690 Active 2 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   remarks 510-char remark
6. 2026-06-07
   listed $237,690 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,447 · $121/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,834 · $320/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,387/yr (+$199/mo · 165.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,386
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,737
• − Property taxes: −$1,447
• − Insurance: −$1,048
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,791
• − Management: −$1,791
• − Depreciation: −$6,095
• Taxable loss: −$1,522
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$365
• After-tax cash flow: $2,371/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,610–$22,830 screening

This home is in good condition with a modern interior and well-maintained exterior. It is ready for immediate occupancy and minor cosmetic updates could further enhance its appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and can add value. ↑
• Rental Clean gutters — Keeps property in good condition and prevents water damage. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 26/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Jarrell El F TX #3,277/4,322 Nat'l #31,702/41,679 Middle Jarrell Middle F TX #1,258/1,662 Nat'l #10,338/14,009 High Jarrell H S F TX #1,112/1,632 Nat'l #11,215/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jarrell ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824600
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $57,132
• Composite: 21.47/100
• National rank: #8335
• State rank: #713 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sonterra

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Williamson County · 699,027 people
• City population: 16,272
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,272
• Household income: $98,199
• Rent vs Own: 20.5% rent · 79.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

---

Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 699,027 people
• By 2030: 795,537 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 990,683 · +41.7%
• By 2050: 1,184,292 · +69.4%
• By 2075: 1,623,825 · +132.3%
• By 2100: 1,924,153 · +175.3%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 14% Black 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 26% Chinese 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 50.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.6pp toward D · 2008: -13.0pp · 2024: -2.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.5 2020: D+1.4 2016: R+9.9 2012: R+21.5 2008: R+13.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.03%
• Current HPI: 184.8935
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.73%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property tax history

-15.4%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,447 · -15.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.