1207 Capstan Dr · Forked River, NJ 08731

$1,750,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,607 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 19 Days on market

Built 1988 0.28 ac lot Est $1255k · 39% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.4/30.0
• DSCR +8.4/10.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover waterfront living at 1207 Capstan Drive in Sunrise Beach--a boater's paradise where you can see and boat directly to Tices Shoal, and enjoy fishing and crabbing right from your own backyard dock. This 4-bedroom, 3-bath home offers stunning water views, an open layout filled with natural light, and a private 50-foot dock perfect for all your coastal adventures. The main level features soaring ceilings, a catwalk overlook, a bright living room, and a kitchen with a walk-in pantry and access to the Trex deck for easy indoor-outdoor entertaining. Upstairs, the primary suite offers a private deck, skylights, a spa-like bath, and a walk-in closet. Additional highlights include a main-lev

Key facts

• 0.28 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1988

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Basement: Other
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Bayfront/bayside/bayview waterfront with bulkhead

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Stove (gas cooking); Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms and 1 half bath
• Heating & cooling: 2-zone heating; 2-zone air conditioning
• Interior features: Outdoor lighting; Window treatments and blinds/shades; Light fixtures
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $1.75M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4k ($43k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($20k rent vs $1.75M).
• Recommended offer: $1.72M (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 3.2% in Forked River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#464 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-, employment A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Lacey Township School District (suburban): math 22% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #299 of 472 in NJ (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 190 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $12k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $52k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($1.72M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 99900% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $350k; list at $1.75M implies a 400% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,723,750 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.80%
• DSCR: 1.44
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $1,255,236
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1212 Ariel Dr	0.16mi	4/4.0	3,884 (+8%)	13mo	$1,250,000	$322	65
848 Ensign Dr	0.54mi	5/3.0 (+1)	3,700 (+3%)	8mo	$1,710,000	$462	59
835 Anchor Dr	0.67mi	5/4.5 (+1)	3,716 (+3%)	11mo	$1,295,000	$348	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-55,388
• Equity at exit: $260,931

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.50×
• Total profit: $246,655
• Equity at exit: $151,308

Cash invested: $490,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08731

• Active inventory: 190
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $20,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$9,177
• Tax from tax record: −$1,890 /mo · $22,684/yr
• Insurance: −$729
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,200
• Net cashflow: $3,577

Break-even live

Break-even rent $15,472

Max offer price $1,750,000

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $437,500
• Closing costs: $52,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
821 Bunnell St Lanoka Harbor, NJ	5.0	3.5	3012	$20,000	$6.64	15d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-04-29
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-10
   price $1,750,000
3. 2026-04-10
   listed $1,750 Active
4. 2026-02-06
   historical $4,500
5. 2025-12-01
   price $4,500
6. 2025-10-26
   listed $4,000
7. 2025-10-12
   historical $13,000
8. 2025-07-05
   price $13,000
9. 2025-05-22
   listed $15,000
10. 2025-05-21
    listed $15,000 Active
11. 1993-10-26
    soldstatus $350,000
12. 1984-10-01
    soldstatus $85,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $22,684 · $1,890/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $33,130 · $2,761/mo
• Expected delta: +$10,445/yr (+$870/mo · 46.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $240,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$98,027
• − Property taxes: −$22,684
• − Insurance: −$13,868
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$19,200
• − Management: −$19,200
• − Depreciation: −$50,909
• Taxable income: $16,111
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,867
• After-tax cash flow: $39,054/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lacey Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3408100
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $73,331
• Composite: 30.42/100
• National rank: #6242
• State rank: #299 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Forked River

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #464
• US rank: #17753

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 21,136

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 8%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 12% Slovak 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -328.91%
• Current HPI: 352.355
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+1958.8% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Pending — MOMLS
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $1,750,000 MOMLS
• 2026-04-10 Listed $1,750 MOMLS
• 2026-02-06 Rental Removed $4,500 MOMLS
• 2025-12-01 Price Changed $4,500 MOMLS
• 2025-10-26 Listed for Rent $4,000 MOMLS
• 2025-10-12 Rental Removed $13,000 MOMLS
• 2025-07-05 Price Changed $13,000 MOMLS
• 2025-05-22 Listed for Rent $15,000 MOMLS
• 2025-05-21 Listed $15,000 MOMLS
• 1993-10-26 Sold (Public Records) $350,000 Public Records
• 1984-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $22,684 · +7.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.