237 Orangevale · Pittsburg, CA 94565

$185,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · Manufactured · 21 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.6/30.0
• DSCR +8.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 237 Orangevale Ave, Pittsburg, CA 94565, a beautifully remodeled and modernized home offering comfort, style, and move-in-ready convenience. This charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath home has been completely updated from top to bottom with quality finishes throughout. Features include a brand-new modern kitchen, updated bathroom, new flooring, dual-pane windows, new siding, and fresh interior and exterior paint. Every detail has been thoughtfully renovated to create a clean, contemporary feel while maintaining the home’s charm. LOT FEE $890.00 Perfect for first-time buyers, downsizers, or investors looking for a turnkey property conveniently located near shopping, dining, schools, a

Key facts

• New siding
• Dual-pane windows
• New flooring

Tags

• MODERN KITCHEN
• UPDATED BATHROOM
• NEW FLOORING
• DUAL-PANE WINDOWS
• NEW SIDING
• FRESH INTERIOR PAINT

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Pets allowed; Community clubhouse; Community playground; Park name: THE MEADOWS

Exterior

• Parking: Carport
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured in park (mobile home); Single-wide
• Construction: Wood siding
• Exterior features: Side yard; Community pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom (street level)
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: No additional rooms; Eat-in kitchen

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $437 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $185k).
• Recommended offer: $182k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 3.4% in Pittsburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#687 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Pittsburg Unified (suburban): math 21% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #1,069 of 1,400 in CA (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 265 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,169 units permitted in Contra Costa County in 2024 (896 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Contra Costa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $182,225 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.13%
• DSCR: 1.45
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $116,928
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
153 Shannon	0.21mi	2/1.0	720 (+7%)	10mo	$125,000	$174	70

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.11% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-6,153
• Equity at exit: $27,584

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $14,616
• Equity at exit: $15,995

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94565

• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 265
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,172 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$231 /mo · $2,775/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$456
• Net cashflow: $437

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,618

Max offer price $185,000

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1010 Power Ave Pittsburg, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	818	$2,169	$2.65	2d	12	0.32mi
4 Covington Dr Unit A Pittsburg, CA	1.0	1.0	600	$2,000	$3.33	11d	1	0.37mi
505 W 10th St Pittsburg, CA	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	416	$2,141	$5.14	5d	8	1.01mi
310 Snow Flake Way Pittsburg, CA	1.0	1.0	400	$1,700	$4.25	18d	1	1.29mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $185,000 Active 21 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $185,000 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $185,000 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $185,000 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $185,000 Active 16 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $185,000 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $185,000 Active 12 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $185,000 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $185,000 Active 10 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $185,000 Active 7 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $185,000 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $185,000 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $185,000 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $185,000 Active 3 DOM
15. 2026-05-28
    listed $185,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 14 unhealthy d/yr today · 14 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,061
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$2,775
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,085
• − Management: −$2,085
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable income: $2,447
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$587
• After-tax cash flow: $4,659/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pittsburg Unified
• NCES district ID: 0630600
• Math proficiency: 21% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $55,872
• Composite: 27.99/100
• National rank: #12238
• State rank: #1069 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Pittsburg

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #687
• US rank: #20922

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pittsburg, CA
• County: Contra Costa County · 1,059,880 people
• City population: 100,488
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 100,488
• Household income: $95,556
• Rent vs Own: 39.1% rent · 60.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 3942.0

Population outlook (Contra Costa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,287,720 people
• By 2030: 1,364,937 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 1,506,209 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 1,624,373 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,853,193 · +43.9%
• By 2100: 1,901,231 · +47.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% Two or more races 19% Asian 17% White 16% Black 13% Pacific Islander 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Russian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 34% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 47% English-only · Spanish 37% Tagalog/Filipino 6% Other Indo-European 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Contra Costa

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+38.0) · D 67.3% · R 29.4% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: 37.8pp · 2024: 38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+38.0 2020: D+45.3 2016: D+43.5 2012: D+33.7 2008: D+37.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -478.40%
• Current HPI: 376.2576
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.11%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $185,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $112 · +6.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.