1606 Blue Heather Ln · Fresno, TX 77545

$222,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,319 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 58 Days on market

Built 1985 6,272 sqft lot Est $222k · at est. $60/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.4/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Appreciation +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 1606 Blue Heather Ln, a home that exudes charm and sophistication. The kitchen is a chef's dream, boasting all stainless steel appliances that gleam against the backdrop of fresh interior paint. The living room is made cozy with a beautiful fireplace, perfect for those chilly evenings. The primary bathroom is a haven of relaxation, featuring double sinks for added convenience. Step outside to a lovely patio, ideal for entertaining or simply enjoying a quiet morning coffee. The fenced-in backyard provides privacy and a safe space for outdoor activities. The home also benefits from a partial flooring replacement, enhancing its modern appeal. This property is a perfect blend of comf

Key facts

• Double sinks
• Beautiful fireplace
• Lovely patio

Tags

• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• BEAUTIFUL FIREPLACE
• DOUBLE SINKS
• LOVELY PATIO
• FENCED-IN BACKYARD
• PARTIAL FLOORING REPLACEMENT

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association: RealManage; Annual association fee of $715

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces
• Security: Owned security system
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1985; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Wood siding construction; Built in 1985; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Security system (owned); Lot described as 'Other'

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 12 x 14); Bedroom on the first floor (approx. 11 x 12); Bedroom on the first floor (approx. 11 x 9)
• Flooring: Tile floors
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Gas fireplace (one); Microwave

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $222k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $261 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $222k).
• Recommended offer: $215k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 5.4% in Fresno — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#943 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lake Olympia Middle (math 18% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,279 of 1,662 statewide, top 78%, 1,170 students, 71% FRL); Hightower H S (math 23% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,002 of 1,632 statewide, top 62%, 2,535 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 35% district-wide (34 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 29% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-19 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Fort Bend ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 175 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($94k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($215k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $215,340 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.03%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $221,592
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1606 Blue Heather Ln	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,319 (0%)	1mo	$222,000	$168	99
4914 Oakwood Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,409 (+7%)	10mo	$312,990	$222	55
4918 Natchez Trce	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+9%)	4mo	$245,000	$170	54
1807 Oxford Green Ct	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,515 (+15%)	8mo	$239,900	$158	42
4934 Pine Haven Ln	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,409 (+7%)	23mo	$306,990	$218	41
4710 Brazos Point Ln	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,455 (+10%)	13mo	$239,000	$164	38
1031 Andover Glen Dr	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,506 (+14%)	16mo	$249,000	$165	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.98% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-16,737
• Equity at exit: $43,314

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-11,508
• Equity at exit: $37,204

Cash invested: $62,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77545

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 175
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,410 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,164
• Tax from tax record: −$326 /mo · $3,917/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$60
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$506
• Net cashflow: $261

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,080

Max offer price $222,000

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,500
• Closing costs: $6,660
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11727 Highway 6 Fresno, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	962	$2,929	$3.04	5d	15	0.63mi
4931 Natchez Trce Fresno, TX	4.0	2.0	1835	$2,350	$1.28	43d	1	0.64mi
1402 Windom Court Way Fresno, TX	4.0	2.5	1831	$2,300	$1.26	43d	1	0.76mi
919 Yorkshire Holw Fresno, TX	3.0	2.0	1506	$2,100	$1.39	43d	1	0.85mi
3623 Elmwood Dale Dr Fresno, TX	3.0	2.0	1545	$1,765	$1.14	43d	1	0.89mi
1740 Trammel-Fresno Rd Fresno, TX	2.0	2.0	949	$2,000	$2.11	24d	1	0.91mi
2403 Orchard Run Fresno, TX	3.0	2.0	1459	$2,800	$1.92	3d	1	1.01mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $60 · $720/yr

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-30
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-23
   price $222,000
3. 2026-04-10
   status Active
4. 2026-03-27
   status Pending
5. 2026-03-05
   price $232,000
6. 2026-02-17
   listed $237,000 Active
7. 2026-01-05
   soldstatus
8. 2007-04-10
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,917 · $326/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,063 · $339/mo
• Expected delta: +$145/yr (+$12/mo · 3.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,917
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,435
• − Property taxes: −$3,917
• − Insurance: −$1,110
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,313
• − Management: −$2,313
• − HOA: −$720
• − Depreciation: −$6,458
• Taxable loss: −$351
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$84
• After-tax cash flow: $3,211/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Fresno

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #943
• US rank: #16815

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fresno, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 26,236
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 26,236
• Household income: $94,474
• Rent vs Own: 20.7% rent · 79.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 360.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 51% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 12% White 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 29% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.98%
• Current HPI: 231.3921
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $222,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-10 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-03-27 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $232,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-17 Listed $237,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-04-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,917 · +6.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.