4389 Hodgson Rd · Shoreview, MN 55126

$339,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,522 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 21 Days on market

Built 1958 10,846 sqft lot $223/sqft · 13% below area Est $393k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.5/15.0
• Cash flow +8.7/30.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Midcentury Rambler in the award winning Mounds View Schools. Close to Sitzer Park and the Snail Lake Park Preserve. 3 bedrooms on the main level all with hardwood floors. Huge basement recreation room, office, plenty of storage ta boot! The kitchen is large. There is a whole wall that could be more counter space, island or a wall of pantries. Roofing with window pane wraps and gutters, 2014. New Carrier Furnace October 2022. New vinyl flooring in the kitchen and bathroom. All windows except living room bay window replace on main floor by Builders & Remodelers, 2006. New bike path/sidewalk will be installed Spring 2023. See agent remarks. The path will be 8 feet wide and a 5 foot wide boulevard in between path and the road. This will be sodded. Kids can be on the trail to the parks vs the road.

Key facts

• 0.25 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1958

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (approx. 20x22)
• Utilities: City water connected; City sewer connected; Electric with circuit breakers; Natural gas
• Home design: Residential property; One level; Main entry on one level
• Construction: Block construction; Asphalt roof (over 8 years old); Block foundation
• Exterior features: Wood exterior; Corner lot; Medium tree coverage; Public transit within six blocks; City street frontage; public maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen / kitchen-dining area; Range; Refrigerator; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (3 bedrooms on one level; one main-floor bedroom; one lower-level bedroom)
• Flooring: Hardwood floors
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main floor; One three-quarter bathroom in the basement with a walk-in shower
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Hardwood floors; Kitchen window; Natural woodwork; Finished basement with block construction
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room in the basement / lower level; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $340k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-284 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $290k (14.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $245k (27.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $245k (27.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.7% in Shoreview — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#89 in MN, #2,019 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, health & safety F.
• Mounds View Public School District (suburban): math 58% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #30 of 301 in MN (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Island Lake Elementary (math 72% / reading 68%, grade A-, #71 of 857 statewide, top 8%, 743 students, 20% FRL); Chippewa Middle School (math 62% / reading 74%, grade A-, #8 of 258 statewide, top 3%, 1,089 students, 17% FRL); Mounds View Senior High (math 77% / reading 74%, grade A-, #5 of 471 statewide, top 1%, 1,901 students, 18% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 148 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,202 units permitted in Ramsey County in 2024 (880 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ramsey County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($335k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $245,277 (27.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.58%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $392,654
• List price: $339,900
• Delta: -13.44%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.67% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-71,538
• Equity at exit: $50,680

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-78,821
• Equity at exit: $29,388

Cash invested: $95,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55126

• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 148
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,453 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,782
• Tax from tax record: −$298 /mo · $3,570/yr
• Insurance: −$142
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$515
• Net cashflow: $-284

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,812

Max offer price $289,746

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-91	-5% $-188	+0% $-284	+5% $-380	+10% $-476
Rent	-10% $-478	-5% $-381	+0% $-284	+5% $-187	+10% $-90
Rate	-1.0pp $-113	-0.5pp $-197	base $-284	+0.5pp $-372	+1.0pp $-462

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $84,975
• Closing costs: $10,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4204 Victoria St N Saint Paul, MN	4.0	2.5	2200	$2,790	$1.27	18d	1	0.97mi
4106 Sylvia Ln S Saint Paul, MN	2.0	2.0	1322	$2,400	$1.82	45d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-15
   historical Contingent - Inspection 1801-char remark
2. 2026-05-05
   status Active 1801-char remark
3. 2026-05-01
   historical Contingent - Inspection 1801-char remark
4. 2026-04-30
   listed $339,900 Active 1801-char remark
5. 2026-04-28
   historical $339,900 1801-char remark
6. 2022-12-22
   soldstatus $270,000
7. 2022-12-21
   soldstatus $270,000 Sold 818-char remark

   Show marketing remark (818 chars)

   Midcentury Rambler in the award winning Mounds View Schools. Close to Sitzer Park and the Snail Lake Park Preserve. 3 bedrooms on the main level all with hardwood floors. Huge basement recreation room, office, plenty of storage ta boot! The kitchen is large. There is a whole wall that could be more counter space, island or a wall of pantries. Roofing with window pane wraps and gutters, 2014. New Carrier Furnace October 2022. New vinyl flooring in the kitchen and bathroom. All windows except living room bay window replace on main floor by Builders & Remodelers, 2006. New bike path/sidewalk will be installed Spring 2023. See agent remarks. The path will be 8 feet wide and a 5 foot wide boulevard in between path and the road. This will be sodded. Kids can be on the trail to the parks vs the road.

8. 2022-12-05
   status Pending 818-char remark

   Show marketing remark (818 chars)

   Midcentury Rambler in the award winning Mounds View Schools. Close to Sitzer Park and the Snail Lake Park Preserve. 3 bedrooms on the main level all with hardwood floors. Huge basement recreation room, office, plenty of storage ta boot! The kitchen is large. There is a whole wall that could be more counter space, island or a wall of pantries. Roofing with window pane wraps and gutters, 2014. New Carrier Furnace October 2022. New vinyl flooring in the kitchen and bathroom. All windows except living room bay window replace on main floor by Builders & Remodelers, 2006. New bike path/sidewalk will be installed Spring 2023. See agent remarks. The path will be 8 feet wide and a 5 foot wide boulevard in between path and the road. This will be sodded. Kids can be on the trail to the parks vs the road.

9. 2022-11-21
   price $275,000 818-char remark

   Show marketing remark (818 chars)

   Midcentury Rambler in the award winning Mounds View Schools. Close to Sitzer Park and the Snail Lake Park Preserve. 3 bedrooms on the main level all with hardwood floors. Huge basement recreation room, office, plenty of storage ta boot! The kitchen is large. There is a whole wall that could be more counter space, island or a wall of pantries. Roofing with window pane wraps and gutters, 2014. New Carrier Furnace October 2022. New vinyl flooring in the kitchen and bathroom. All windows except living room bay window replace on main floor by Builders & Remodelers, 2006. New bike path/sidewalk will be installed Spring 2023. See agent remarks. The path will be 8 feet wide and a 5 foot wide boulevard in between path and the road. This will be sodded. Kids can be on the trail to the parks vs the road.

10. 2022-11-10
    listed $300,000 Active 818-char remark

    Show marketing remark (818 chars)

    Midcentury Rambler in the award winning Mounds View Schools. Close to Sitzer Park and the Snail Lake Park Preserve. 3 bedrooms on the main level all with hardwood floors. Huge basement recreation room, office, plenty of storage ta boot! The kitchen is large. There is a whole wall that could be more counter space, island or a wall of pantries. Roofing with window pane wraps and gutters, 2014. New Carrier Furnace October 2022. New vinyl flooring in the kitchen and bathroom. All windows except living room bay window replace on main floor by Builders & Remodelers, 2006. New bike path/sidewalk will be installed Spring 2023. See agent remarks. The path will be 8 feet wide and a 5 foot wide boulevard in between path and the road. This will be sodded. Kids can be on the trail to the parks vs the road.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,570 · $298/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,688 · $307/mo
• Expected delta: +$118/yr (+$10/mo · 3.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,433
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,040
• − Property taxes: −$3,570
• − Insurance: −$1,700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,355
• − Management: −$2,355
• − Depreciation: −$9,888
• Taxable loss: −$9,473
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,274
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,133/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mounds View Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2722950
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $72,492
• Composite: 54.04/100
• National rank: #1390
• State rank: #30 of 301 in MN

Livability — Shoreview

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #89
• US rank: #2019

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living C- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shoreview, MN
• County: Ramsey County · 542,837 people
• City population: 27,456
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 27,456
• Household income: $108,217
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 468.0

Population outlook (Ramsey County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 603,431 people
• By 2030: 636,459 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 700,596 · +16.1%
• By 2050: 765,819 · +26.9%
• By 2075: 929,297 · +54.0%
• By 2100: 1,053,924 · +74.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Asian 10% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 11% Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · China, Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 3% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ramsey

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+43.3) · D 70.5% · R 27.2% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.4pp toward D · 2008: 33.9pp · 2024: 43.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+43.3 2020: D+45.4 2016: D+39.4 2012: D+35.3 2008: D+33.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -268.72%
• Current HPI: 245.484
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.67%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+15.0% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Sold (MLS) $344,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-20 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-15 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-05 Relisted — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-01 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-30 Listed $339,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-28 Coming Soon $339,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-12-22 Sold (Public Records) $270,000 Public Records
• 2022-12-21 Sold (MLS) $270,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-12-05 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-11-21 Price Changed $275,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-11-10 Listed $300,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,570 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.