25 Rio Grande Cir #7 · Florence, KY 41042

$174,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 956 sqft · Condo public records · 41 Days on market

Built 1991 $319/mo HOA · 19% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautifully updated, move-in ready condo tucked away in a quiet, private community in Florence--just minutes from Union, KY, and located in the highly desirable Ryle High School district. Conveniently positioned behind the new Publix, you'll enjoy easy access to shopping, dining, medical facilities, churches, and everything Northern Kentucky has to offer, with quick access across the river as well. Inside, this condo features a stylish industrial design with a modern edge. You'll find all new stainless steel appliances, fresh paint throughout, and striking custom panel accent walls in the entry, living room, dining room, and bathrooms. Each bedroom showcases its own unique c

Key facts

• Tiled backsplash
• Private community
• Parking

Tags

• PRIVATE COMMUNITY
• RYLE HIGH SCHOOL DISTRICT
• EASY ACCESS TO SHOPPING
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• CUSTOM PANEL ACCENT WALLS
• TILED BACKSPLASH

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Directions: From I71, go west on Hwy 42 for 4.5 miles, right onto old US 42, right on Rio Grande Cir.
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $299; Community has an association

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking (no garage)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level
• Construction: Built in 1991; Aluminum siding and brick exterior; Shingle roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Balcony

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven and range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (16 x 11); Second bedroom (11 x 11)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Primary bathroom (8 x 5); Second bathroom (8 x 5)
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Stainless steel appliances; Disposal; Microwave
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-74 ($-888/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $162k (7.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $169k (3.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $162k (7.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.4% in Florence — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#82 in KY, #2,763 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-.
• Boone County (suburban): math 43% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #12 of 165 in KY (top 7%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Erpenbeck Elementary School (math 65% / reading 68%, grade B+, #17 of 676 statewide, top 2%, 702 students, 28% FRL); Ockerman Middle School (math 35% / reading 50%, grade D-, #47 of 217 statewide, top 22%, 653 students, 47% FRL); Larry A. Ryle High School (math 50% / reading 48%, grade D, #15 of 254 statewide, top 6%, 2,013 students, 32% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 271 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,430 units permitted in Boone County in 2024 (928 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Boone County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($170k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 28y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $69k; list at $175k implies a 152% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $161,825 (7.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.81%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-32,187
• Equity at exit: $26,078

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-30,515
• Equity at exit: $15,122

Cash invested: $48,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41042

• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 271
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,693 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$917
• Tax from tax record: −$102 /mo · $1,228/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$319
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$356
• Net cashflow: $-74

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,787

Max offer price $161,825

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $25	-5% $-25	+0% $-74	+5% $-124	+10% $-173
Rent	-10% $-208	-5% $-141	+0% $-74	+5% $-7	+10% $60
Rate	-1.0pp $14	-0.5pp $-30	base $-74	+0.5pp $-119	+1.0pp $-165

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,725
• Closing costs: $5,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1620 Corinthian Dr Florence, KY	2.0–3.0	2.0	1165	$1,432	$1.23	0d	18	0.95mi
1000 Tamarack Cir Florence, KY	2.0	1.0	825	$1,367	$1.66	0d	6	1.07mi
239 Landon Ct Florence, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1228	$2,244	$1.83	0d	11	1.08mi
1919 Promenade CIR Union, KY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1071	$2,020	$1.89	5d	38	1.34mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $319 · $3,828/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $174,900 Active 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $174,900 Active 40 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $174,900 Active 37 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $174,900 Active 36 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $174,900 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $174,900 Active 34 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $174,900 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $174,900 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $174,900 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $174,900 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $174,900 Active 23 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $174,900 Active 22 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $174,900 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $174,900 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    price $174,900 Active 19 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,900 Active 19 DOM
17. 2026-05-12
    listed $189,900 Active
18. 2025-10-29
    historical
19. 2025-10-19
    price $159,900
20. 2025-09-22
    price $164,800
21. 2025-08-12
    price $164,900
22. 2025-08-09
    price $169,900
23. 2025-07-24
    listed $170,000 Active
24. 2023-01-20
    historical
25. 2023-01-16
    listed $155,000 Active
26. 2011-11-04
    historical
27. 2011-05-04
    listed $79,900
28. 2005-09-26
    soldstatus $69,300
29. 2005-05-14
    historical
30. 2004-11-14
    listed $76,500
31. 2001-04-06
    soldstatus $68,600
32. 2001-03-31
    soldstatus $68,600
33. 2000-10-07
    listed $69,400
34. 2000-10-03
    historical
35. 2000-10-03
    historical
36. 2000-06-29
    listed $72,900
37. 2000-06-29
    listed $72,900
38. 1998-07-29
    soldstatus $63,000
39. 1998-07-28
    soldstatus $63,000
40. 1998-06-03
    listed $63,900
41. 1998-05-18
    soldstatus $60,000
42. 1995-09-05
    soldstatus $60,400
43. 1994-09-14
    soldstatus $54,000
44. 1994-04-01
    soldstatus $60,500
45. 1992-09-16
    soldstatus $54,900
46. 1992-07-06
    soldstatus $56,225
47. 1991-12-18
    soldstatus $56,900
48. 1991-05-23
    soldstatus $49,449
49. 1991-04-22
    soldstatus $59,945
50. 1991-02-13
    soldstatus $51,135

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,228 · $102/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,504 · $125/mo
• Expected delta: +$276/yr (+$23/mo · 22.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,315
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,797
• − Property taxes: −$1,228
• − Insurance: −$874
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,625
• − Management: −$1,625
• − HOA: −$3,828
• − Depreciation: −$5,088
• Taxable loss: −$3,751
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$900
• After-tax cash flow: $12/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Boone County
• NCES district ID: 2100510
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $68,096
• Composite: 41.18/100
• National rank: #3550
• State rank: #12 of 165 in KY

Livability — Florence

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #82
• US rank: #2763

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Florence, KY
• County: Boone County · 99,563 people
• City population: 57,634
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 57,634
• Household income: $79,712
• Rent vs Own: 33.2% rent · 66.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1397.0

Population outlook (Boone County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 144,066 people
• By 2030: 152,005 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 166,776 · +15.8%
• By 2050: 178,974 · +24.2%
• By 2075: 204,515 · +42.0%
• By 2100: 215,306 · +49.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 8% Black 7% Two or more races 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Boone

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.2) · D 30.6% · R 67.8% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.7pp toward R · 2008: -34.5pp · 2024: -37.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.2 2020: R+35.7 2016: R+41.8 2012: R+38.7 2008: R+34.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -195.07%
• Current HPI: 206.3259
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.42%
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+234.9% since first listed

40 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $189,900 NKMLS
• 2025-10-29 Listing Removed — NKMLS
• 2025-10-19 Price Changed $159,900 NKMLS
• 2025-09-22 Price Changed $164,800 NKMLS
• 2025-08-12 Price Changed $164,900 NKMLS
• 2025-08-09 Price Changed $169,900 NKMLS
• 2025-07-24 Listed $170,000 NKMLS
• 2023-01-20 Listing Removed — NKMLS
• 2023-01-16 Listed $155,000 NKMLS
• 2011-11-04 Listing Removed — NKMLS
• 2011-05-04 Listed $79,900 NKMLS
• 2005-09-26 Sold (Public Records) $69,300 Public Records
• 2005-05-14 Listing Removed — NKMLS
• 2004-11-14 Listed $76,500 NKMLS
• 2001-04-06 Sold (Public Records) $68,600 Public Records
• 2001-03-31 Sold (MLS) $68,600 NKMLS
• 2000-10-07 Listed $69,400 NKMLS
• 2000-10-03 Listing Removed — NKMLS
• 2000-10-03 Listing Removed — NKMLS
• 2000-06-29 Listed $72,900 NKMLS
• 2000-06-29 Listed $72,900 NKMLS
• 1998-07-29 Sold (Public Records) $63,000 Public Records
• 1998-07-28 Sold (MLS) $63,000 NKMLS
• 1998-06-03 Listed $63,900 NKMLS
• 1998-05-18 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 1995-09-05 Sold (Public Records) $60,400 Public Records
• 1994-09-14 Sold (Public Records) $54,000 Public Records
• 1994-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $60,500 Public Records
• 1992-09-16 Sold (Public Records) $54,900 Public Records
• 1992-07-06 Sold (Public Records) $56,225 Public Records
• 1991-12-18 Sold (Public Records) $56,900 Public Records
• 1991-05-23 Sold (Public Records) $49,449 Public Records
• 1991-04-22 Sold (Public Records) $59,945 Public Records
• 1991-02-13 Sold (Public Records) $51,135 Public Records
• 1991-01-24 Sold (Public Records) $64,390 Public Records
• 1990-12-07 Sold (Public Records) $63,225 Public Records
• 1990-11-26 Sold (Public Records) $55,420 Public Records
• 1990-11-21 Sold (Public Records) $53,960 Public Records
• 1990-11-13 Sold (Public Records) $59,070 Public Records
• 1990-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $56,700 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,228 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.