3031 Groton Dr · Houston, TX 77051

$175,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,259 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 36 Days on market

Built 1961 6,050 sqft lot $139/sqft · at area comps Est $173k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.0/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Location, location, location! This move-in ready home at 3031 Groton Drive is a great opportunity for investors or first-time buyers in a Houston area experiencing continued growth and revitalization. The property is turn-key with strong rental potential and features a new HVAC system and a new roof, offering added value and peace of mind. It is conveniently located near the Texas Medical Center, NRG Stadium, Downtown Houston, and Third Ward, with easy access to Highway 288, Beltway 8, and 610. It also offers close proximity to the University of Houston, Texas Southern University, and Hobby Airport, making it ideal for both homeowners and investors. This property is tenant-occupied. Please

Key facts

• New roof
• New hvac system
• 6,050 sq ft lot

Tags

• NEW HVAC SYSTEM
• NEW ROOF
• CLOSE PROXIMITY TO NRG STADIUM

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease considered

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Entry level: First floor
• Construction: Built in 1961; Slab foundation; Composition roof; Construction materials: Unknown
• Exterior features: Located in a subdivision

Interior

• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (13 x 11); Three additional first-floor bedrooms (each 11 x 11)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas); Central cooling (electric and gas)
• Interior features: 4 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $279 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $170k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Attucks Middle (math 15% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,478 of 1,662 statewide, top 90%, 439 students, 98% FRL); Worthing H S (math 22% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 827 students, 96% FRL) — zoned schools average 97% FRL vs 71% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.8%/yr); 312 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,879/mo this rent would consume 60% of the median local household income ($37k/yr) (locally 1446% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 4.8% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($170k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 12 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask is 9622% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $169,750 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.82%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $173,069
• List price: $175,000
• Delta: 1.12%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3018 Elpyco St	0.36mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,215 (-4%)	1mo	$187,000	$154	67
10209 Cathedral Dr	0.59mi	3/1.5	1,244 (-1%)	3mo	$180,000	$145	66
3034 Corksie St	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,225 (-3%)	0mo	$219,900	$180	65
10818 Carlton Dr	0.69mi	3/1.0	1,246 (-1%)	2mo	$175,999	$141	65
11018 Long Gate	0.74mi	3/1.5	1,242 (-1%)	2mo	$130,000	$105	60
10014 Sierra Dr	0.69mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,243 (-1%)	2mo	$185,000	$149	55
2614 Afton Heights Way	0.64mi	3/2.5	1,384 (+10%)	1mo	$279,990	$202	47
2818 Milton Lodge Ln	0.62mi	3/2.5	1,384 (+10%)	2mo	$279,990	$202	47
10204 Penryn Forest Trl	0.65mi	3/2.5	1,384 (+10%)	1mo	$284,990	$206	46
10108 Penryn Forest Trl	0.69mi	3/2.5	1,384 (+10%)	2mo	$279,990	$202	43
11416 Lucky Falls Dr	0.66mi	3/2.5	1,404 (+12%)	2mo	$291,388	$208	42
11418 Lucky Falls Dr	0.66mi	3/2.5	1,422 (+13%)	3mo	$294,262	$207	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 4.77% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.38×
• Total profit: $116,481
• Equity at exit: $157,654

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.5%
• Equity multiple: 7.87×
• Total profit: $336,544
• Equity at exit: $339,987

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77051

• Home prices YoY: 9.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.8%
• Active inventory: 312
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,879 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$215 /mo · $2,583/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$395
• Net cashflow: $279

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,526

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2937 Amherst Meadow Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1820	$2,450	$1.35	22d	1	0.35mi
2937 Amherst Meadow Ln Unit NA Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1820	$2,400	$1.32	5d	1	0.35mi
10510 Cathedral Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	887	$1,300	$1.47	43d	1	0.44mi
10514 Wellesley Terrace Trl Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1843	$2,300	$1.25	18d	1	0.45mi
10415 Lancaster Ln Houston, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5	1937	$2,525	$1.30	20d	1	0.54mi
9606 Ashville Dr Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1610	$1,570	$0.98	43d	1	0.92mi
9610 Buffum St Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1605	$1,799	$1.12	43d	1	0.96mi
11819 Leitrim Way Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1476	$1,150	$0.78	5d	1	1.11mi
11806 City Park Central Ln Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1107	$1,636	$1.48	43d	1	1.18mi
11806 City Park Central Ln Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1107	$1,636	$1.48	16d	1	1.18mi
11800 City Park Central Ln Unit 11857 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	885	$1,362	$1.54	43d	1	1.18mi
11800 City Park Central Ln Apt 422 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	885	$1,290	$1.46	7d	1	1.18mi
11800 City Park Central Ln Unit 2174 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	885	$1,314	$1.48	11d	1	1.18mi
11800 City Park Central Ln Unit 425 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	885	$1,282	$1.45	3d	1	1.18mi
11800 City Park Central Ln Unit 2162 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	885	$1,290	$1.46	5d	1	1.18mi
2910 Reed Rd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	967	$1,280	$1.32	1d	5	1.19mi
3020 Gunnersbury Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1670	$1,499	$0.90	15d	1	1.30mi
11900 City Park Central Ln Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	877	$1,726	$1.97	2d	23	1.33mi
11900 Oakmoor Pkwy Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	892	$1,469	$1.65	3d	12	1.34mi
4015 Marchant Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,700	$1.42	43d	1	1.34mi
2920 Stamford Hill Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1690	$2,200	$1.30	43d	1	1.36mi
2725 Reed Rd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	911	$975	$1.07	43d	1	1.43mi
2889 Reed Rd Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	997	$1,648	$1.65	3d	2	1.43mi
11915 Sanspereil Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1308	$1,695	$1.30	3d	1	1.44mi
11906 City Park Central Ln Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1040	$1,399	$1.35	43d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 40 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,000 Active 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,000 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $175,000 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $175,000 Active 27 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $175,000 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $175,000 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $175,000 Active 22 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $175,000 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $175,000 Active 18 DOM
12. 2026-05-14
    listed $1,800
13. 2026-05-13
    historical $1,800
14. 2026-05-13
    listed $189,000 Active 725-char remark
15. 2026-05-13
    historical
16. 2026-05-10
    price $1,800
17. 2026-04-08
    listed $1,700
18. 2026-03-11
    listed $189,000 Active
19. 2026-03-10
    historical
20. 2025-11-20
    price $195,000
21. 2025-06-09
    listed $205,000 Active
22. 2023-08-04
    historical
23. 2023-05-01
    status Active
24. 2023-04-30
    historical
25. 2023-01-19
    listed $175,000 Active
26. 2023-01-19
    historical
27. 2022-11-10
    listed $175,000 Active
28. 2022-11-10
    historical
29. 2022-09-06
    listed $175,000 Active
30. 2022-09-06
    historical
31. 2022-08-24
    historical
32. 2022-08-24
    listed $189,000 Active
33. 2022-08-16
    listed $195,000 Active
34. 2019-08-06
    soldstatus Sold
35. 2019-07-19
    soldstatus
36. 2019-07-03
    status Pending
37. 2019-07-01
    price $45,000
38. 2019-06-28
    soldstatus
39. 2019-06-14
    listed $55,000 Active
40. 1988-01-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,583 · $215/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,202 · $267/mo
• Expected delta: +$619/yr (+$52/mo · 24.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,548
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$2,583
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,804
• − Management: −$1,804
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable income: $589
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$141
• After-tax cash flow: $3,201/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 19,795
• Household income: $37,415
• Rent vs Own: 58.2% rent · 41.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1446.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 77% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 11% White 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.02%
• Current HPI: 180.4283
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.77%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+218.2% since first listed

30 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $175,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-14 Listed for Rent $1,800 HARMLS
• 2026-05-13 Rental Removed $1,800 HARMLS
• 2026-05-13 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-13 Listed $189,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-10 Price Changed $1,800 HARMLS
• 2026-04-08 Listed for Rent $1,700 HARMLS
• 2026-03-11 Listed $189,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-10 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-11-20 Price Changed $195,000 HARMLS
• 2025-06-09 Listed $205,000 HARMLS
• 2023-08-04 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-05-01 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2023-04-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-01-19 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-01-19 Listed $175,000 HARMLS
• 2022-11-10 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2022-11-10 Listed $175,000 HARMLS
• 2022-09-06 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2022-09-06 Listed $175,000 HARMLS
• 2022-08-24 Listed $189,000 HARMLS
• 2022-08-24 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2022-08-16 Listed $195,000 HARMLS
• 2019-08-06 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2019-07-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-07-03 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-07-01 Price Changed $45,000 HARMLS
• 2019-06-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-06-14 Listed $55,000 HARMLS
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,583 · +10.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.