10423 Alafia St · Gibsonton, FL 33534

$170,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · Manufactured public records · 27 Days on market

Built 1972

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.6/30.0
• DSCR +8.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.5/5.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

2 mobile home currently occupied by 2 paying tennants. * Do not disturb Dual lot combined. 135x140.. (10423 and 10425 ) Beautiful oak trees. Corner lot Great investment property. Owner may consider owner finance with 50k down payment. * * As I mentioned before both mobile homes are rented out currently to two different tenants. When they move out those homes will need significant repairs, or full replacement. A lower cash price may be considered. As is.

Key facts

• Built 1972
• Listed 27 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $404 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• Recommended offer: $167k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#479 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, health & safety F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.1%/yr); 107 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $170k implies a 580% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $167,450 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.18%
• DSCR: 1.45
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.19×
• Total profit: $8,987
• Equity at exit: $25,348

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.89×
• Total profit: $90,156
• Equity at exit: $14,698

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33534

• Home prices YoY: -18.2%
• Rents YoY: 8.1%
• Active inventory: 107
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,038 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$244 /mo · $2,925/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$428
• Net cashflow: $404

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,527

Max offer price $170,000

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $500	-5% $452	+0% $404	+5% $356	+10% $308
Rent	-10% $243	-5% $323	+0% $404	+5% $484	+10% $565
Rate	-1.0pp $489	-0.5pp $447	base $404	+0.5pp $360	+1.0pp $315

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9852 Indiana St Gibsonton, FL	2.0	1.0	720	$1,700	$2.36	4d	1	0.80mi
9015 Hirsch Ct Gibsonton, FL	2.0	1.0	656	$1,750	$2.67	18d	1	1.08mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $170,000 Active 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $170,000 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $170,000 Active 25 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $170,000 Active 24 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $170,000 Active 22 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $170,000 Active 21 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $170,000 Active 18 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $170,000 Active 17 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $170,000 Active 16 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $170,000 Active 13 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $170,000 Active 12 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $170,000 Active 11 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $170,000 Active 10 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $170,000 Active 9 DOM
15. 2026-05-23
    listed $170,000 Active
16. 1994-02-07
    soldstatus $25,000
17. 1984-10-01
    soldstatus $34,000
18. 1980-10-01
    soldstatus $15,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,925 · $244/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,925 · $244/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 54% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,453
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$2,925
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,956
• − Management: −$1,956
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable income: $2,298
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$551
• After-tax cash flow: $4,294/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Gibsonton

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #479
• US rank: #8752

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A- Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gibsonton, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 17,740
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 17,740
• Household income: $80,484
• Rent vs Own: 33.7% rent · 66.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 487.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 38% White 36% Two or more races 23% Black 19% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 4% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Russian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Guatemala, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 30% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -72.07%
• Current HPI: 323.4367
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.05%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1033.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Listed $170,000 FSBO.com
• 1994-02-07 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records
• 1984-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $34,000 Public Records
• 1980-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $15,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,925 · +14.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.