2809 Genuine Risk Ct · Celina, TX 75009

$674,952

4 bd · 4.5 ba · 3,481 sqft · SingleFamily · 154 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 6,011 sqft lot 3-car garage $194/sqft · 22% below area Est $860k · 22% under $147/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Cash flow +3.4/30.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +1.3/5.0
• 1% rule +0.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

There's something special about the Peony from the moment you arrive. Perched on an elevated homesite near the community's walking trails, pond, and park, this two-story design makes a statement with its impressive scale, soaring ceilings, and thoughtfully designed spaces for gathering, entertaining, and everyday life. Featuring 4 bedrooms, 4 full bathrooms, a powder room, and a 3-car garage, the Peony provides plenty of space for both everyday living and entertaining.

Key facts

• Owner's bath
• Guest suites
• Upstairs bedroom

Tags

• WALK-IN CLOSET
• OWNER'S BATH
• OPEN FAMILY AND DINING SPACES
• GUEST SUITES
• UPSTAIRS BEDROOM
• CENTER ISLAND

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.5-bath single-family listed at $675k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-26k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $365k (45.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $346k (48.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $346k (48.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#450 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Celina ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #71 of 826 in TX (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Marcy B Lykins El (math 38% / reading 50%, grade F, #1,243 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 708 students, 22% FRL); Jerry & Linda Moore Middle (math 56% / reading 60%, grade B, #197 of 1,662 statewide, top 12%, 903 students, 20% FRL); Celina H S (math 44% / reading 72%, grade C, #320 of 1,632 statewide, top 20%, 1,074 students, 18% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.6%/yr); 3881 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 68d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 77% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $20k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 154 days — a 12% lower offer ($594k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $346,351 (48.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 154 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 49% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.51% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.18%
• DSCR: 0.41
• GRM: 16.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $859,866
• List price: $674,952
• Delta: -21.50%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2137 Ten Mile Creek Rd	0.50mi	4/4.0	3,286 (-6%)	1mo	$625,000	$190	65
2204 Berman St	0.55mi	5/4.0 (+1)	3,524 (+1%)	2mo	$569,000	$161	63
2620 Cedar Ridge Rd	0.51mi	4/4.5	3,714 (+7%)	2mo	$599,000	$161	63
2216 Ten Mile Creek Rd	0.46mi	5/4.0 (+1)	3,775 (+8%)	1mo	$640,000	$170	57
2601 Landmark Dr	0.75mi	5/4.5 (+1)	3,610 (+4%)	2mo	$589,990	$163	53
2500 Rosecroft Ct	0.54mi	4/4.5	3,967 (+14%)	2mo	$750,000	$189	50
2717 Creekdale Dr	0.61mi	5/4.5 (+1)	3,909 (+12%)	1mo	$654,990	$168	45
3032 Cliffside Dr	0.73mi	4/4.0	3,084 (-11%)	2mo	$497,790	$161	43
2105 Ten Mile Creek Ct	0.55mi	3/3.5 (-1)	3,022 (-13%)	1mo	$599,000	$198	43
3016 Cliffside Dr	0.72mi	5/4.0 (+1)	3,056 (-12%)	1mo	$483,500	$158	38
2612 Landmark Dr	0.72mi	5/4.0 (+1)	3,909 (+12%)	2mo	$643,970	$165	37
3009 Cliffside Dr	0.74mi	5/4.0 (+1)	3,004 (-14%)	2mo	$539,990	$180	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -45.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.35×
• Total profit: $-255,746
• Equity at exit: $100,638

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -1.31×
• Total profit: $-436,827
• Equity at exit: $58,358

Cash invested: $188,987 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 316 active · 54 under contract
• Months of supply: 32.1 mo (3%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $712,900 ($217/sqft)
• Median days on market: 140 d
• This list price: 44% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +13.6% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75009

• Home prices YoY: -23.1%
• Rents YoY: -4.6%
• Active inventory: 3881
• Price-to-rent: 16.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,464 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,540
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$844 /mo · $10,124/yr
• Insurance: −$281
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$147
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$727
• Net cashflow: $-2,142

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,175

Max offer price $365,041

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,675	-5% $-1,909	+0% $-2,142	+5% $-2,375	+10% $-2,608
Rent	-10% $-2,415	-5% $-2,279	+0% $-2,142	+5% $-2,005	+10% $-1,868
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,802	-0.5pp $-1,970	base $-2,142	+0.5pp $-2,317	+1.0pp $-2,495

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $168,738
• Closing costs: $20,249
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 31 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2600 Precocious Ct Celina, TX	4.0	3.5	3316	$4,700	$1.42	54d	1	0.32mi
2522 Runhappy Ct Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2395	$3,500	$1.46	139d	1	0.34mi
2020 Stonebrook St Celina, TX	5.0	4.0	3596	$3,295	$0.92	50d	1	0.38mi
2009 Brookhurst St Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2386	$2,895	$1.21	114d	1	0.42mi
2432 Preakness Pl Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2309	$3,500	$1.52	139d	1	0.42mi
2004 Huntersridge Dr Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2815	$2,995	$1.06	81d	1	0.43mi
2632 Preakness Pl Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2359	$3,650	$1.55	3d	1	0.47mi
1913 Bristol St Celina, TX	4.0	4.0	3462	$3,200	$0.92	51d	1	0.53mi
1837 Whispering Pines Dr Celina, TX	5.0	4.0	3670	$3,550	$0.97	97d	1	0.60mi
1837 Whispering Pines Dr Celina, TX	5.0	4.0	3670	$3,550	$0.97	87d	1	0.61mi
1837 Whispering Pines Dr Celina, TX	5.0	4.0	3664	$3,400	$0.93	59d	1	0.61mi
2912 Seattle Slew Dr Celina, TX	5.0	4.0	3679	$4,000	$1.09	0d	1	0.61mi
2232 Grey September St Celina, TX	4.0	3.5	3003	$4,500	$1.50	89d	1	0.76mi
3125 Casa Blanca St Celina, TX	3.0	2.5	2331	$3,300	$1.42	83d	1	0.84mi
3125 Pedigree Ct Celina, TX	4.0	4.5	3589	$4,600	$1.28	31d	1	0.86mi
3138 Casa Blanca St Celina, TX	4.0	2.5	2368	$3,000	$1.27	120d	1	0.88mi
2437 Plumeria Ln Celina, TX	5.0	5.0	3257	$3,611	$1.11	139d	1	1.06mi
3533 Hyacinth Way Prosper, TX	4.0	3.5	3405	$3,600	$1.06	57d	1	1.07mi
1637 Palo Duro Way Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2545	$5,800	$2.28	68d	1	1.11mi
2524 Lafayette Dr Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2807	$3,300	$1.18	19d	1	1.13mi
1624 Goldenrod Dr Celina, TX	4.0	4.0	2735	$3,350	$1.22	3d	1	1.17mi
3328 Zenyatta Ct Celina, TX	5.0	5.0	4328	$5,000	$1.16	0d	1	1.22mi
3332 Zenyatta Ct Celina, TX	4.0	4.5	3789	$4,495	$1.19	0d	1	1.23mi
3008 Evergreen Trl Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2503	$2,595	$1.04	78d	1	1.29mi
1117 Goldfinch Dr Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2939	$2,950	$1.00	33d	1	1.31mi
1629 White Snowberry Ln Prosper, TX	4.0	3.0	2996	$3,200	$1.07	107d	1	1.34mi
3517 Henry Xing Celina, TX	4.0	2.5	2281	$2,695	$1.18	98d	1	1.40mi
3517 Henry Xing Celina, TX	4.0	2.5	2281	$2,600	$1.14	76d	1	1.40mi
4108 Water Stone Ct McKinney, TX	5.0	4.5	4540	$5,500	$1.21	83d	1	1.43mi
6531 Swallow Ct McKinney, TX	4.0	3.0	3049	$1,700	$0.56	32d	1	1.50mi
1308 Ladys Mantle Way Prosper, TX	4.0	3.0	2975	$3,400	$1.14	4d	1	1.50mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price reported

Exterior

• Parking: 3-car garage / 3 total parking spaces
• Home design: Spec new-construction home, Plan name: PeonyActive listing

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 4 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Open living area (3,433 total living area reported)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $674,952 Active 154 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $674,952 Active 153 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $674,952 Active 152 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $674,952 Active 151 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $674,952 Active 150 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $674,952 Active 149 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $674,952 Active 148 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $674,952 Active 147 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $674,952 Active 146 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    pricedays on market $674,952 Active 145 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $724,743 Active 144 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $724,743 Active 143 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $724,743 Active 142 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $724,743 Active 141 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $724,743 Active 135 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on marketlisting id $724,743 Active 134 DOM
17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $724,743 Active 117 DOM
18. 2026-08-30
    days on market $724,743 Active 116 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $724,743 Active 115 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $724,743 Active 114 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $724,743 Active 113 DOM
22. 2026-08-26
    days on market $724,743 Active 112 DOM
23. 2026-08-25
    days on market $724,743 Active 111 DOM
24. 2026-08-24
    days on market $724,743 Active 110 DOM
25. 2026-08-23
    days on market $724,743 Active 109 DOM
26. 2026-08-22
    days on market $724,743 Active 108 DOM
27. 2026-08-21
    days on market $724,743 Active 107 DOM
28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $724,743 Active 106 DOM
29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $724,743 Active 105 DOM
30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $724,743 Active 104 DOM
31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $724,743 Active 103 DOM
32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $724,743 Active 102 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $724,743 Active 101 DOM
34. 2026-08-15
    price $724,743 Active 100 DOM
35. 2026-08-14
    days on market $741,746 Active 100 DOM
36. 2026-08-13
    days on market $741,746 Active 99 DOM
37. 2026-08-12
    days on market $741,746 Active 98 DOM
38. 2026-08-11
    days on market $741,746 Active 97 DOM
39. 2026-08-10
    days on market $741,746 Active 96 DOM
40. 2026-08-09
    days on market $741,746 Active 95 DOM
41. 2026-08-08
    days on market $741,746 Active 94 DOM
42. 2026-08-06
    days on market $741,746 Active 92 DOM
43. 2026-08-05
    days on market $741,746 Active 91 DOM
44. 2026-08-04
    days on market $741,746 Active 90 DOM
45. 2026-08-03
    days on market $741,746 Active 89 DOM
46. 2026-07-31
    days on market $741,746 Active 86 DOM
47. 2026-07-30
    days on market $741,746 Active 85 DOM
48. 2026-07-30
    days on market $741,746 Active 84 DOM
49. 2026-07-28
    days on market $741,746 Active 83 DOM
50. 2026-07-26
    days on market $741,746 Active 81 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,562
• − Mortgage interest: −$37,808
• − Property taxes: −$10,124
• − Insurance: −$4,172
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,325
• − Management: −$3,325
• − HOA: −$1,764
• − Depreciation: −$19,635
• Taxable loss: −$38,591
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$9,262
• After-tax cash flow: $-16,439/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This brand new Peony plan home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a beautiful and functional layout with high-end finishes and a well-maintained exterior. Potential buyers and renters will appreciate the modern design and curb appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Improves convenience and adds modern appeal ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 53/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Marcy B Lykins El F TX #1,243/4,322 Nat'l #17,190/41,679 Middle Jerry & Linda Moore Middle B TX #197/1,662 Nat'l #2,084/14,009 High Celina H S C TX #320/1,632 Nat'l #3,986/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Celina ISD
• NCES district ID: 4813290
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $83,282
• Composite: 50.49/100
• National rank: #1853
• State rank: #71 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 68/100

Livability — Celina

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #450
• US rank: #9135

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Celina, TX
• County: Collin County · 1,210,074 people
• City population: 34,260
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,260
• Household income: $168,250
• Rent vs Own: 8.0% rent · 92.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 25% of renters

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Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 11% Asian 11% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Lithuanian 4% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 6% Chinese 3% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

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Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.07%
• Current HPI: 276.6307
• Rent YoY: ▼ -4.62%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price reported

Exterior

• Parking: 3-car garage / 3 total parking spaces
• Home design: Spec new-construction home, Plan name: PeonyActive listing

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 4 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Open living area (3,433 total living area reported)