2809 Genuine Risk Ct · Celina, TX 75009

$741,746

4 bd · 4.5 ba · 3,433 sqft · SingleFamily · 94 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 3-car garage $216/sqft · 19% below area Est $916k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Cash flow +5.0/30.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +1.3/5.0
• 1% rule +0.8/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Introducing the brand new Peony plan - a beautifully designed two-story home offering an open and connected feel from the upstairs game room overlooking the spacious family room below. This thoughtfully crafted layout features 4 bedrooms and 4.5 baths, including two private en-suite bedrooms, perfect for guests or multi-generational living. The expansive kitchen flows seamlessly into the dining area and soaring 20-foot ceiling family room, creating the perfect space for entertaining and everyday living. Complete with a spacious 3-car garage, the Peony combines elegance, comfort, and functionality in one stunning home.

Key facts

• 3 garage spots
• Built 2026
• Listed 93 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.5-bath single-family listed at $742k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-22k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $481k (35.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $429k (42.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $429k (42.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.5% vs local median 2.9% in Celina — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#450 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Celina ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #71 of 826 in TX (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Marcy B Lykins El (math 38% / reading 50%, grade F, #1,243 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 708 students, 22% FRL); Jerry & Linda Moore Middle (math 56% / reading 60%, grade B, #197 of 1,662 statewide, top 12%, 903 students, 20% FRL); Celina H S (math 44% / reading 72%, grade C, #320 of 1,632 statewide, top 20%, 1,074 students, 18% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.6%/yr); 3407 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($168k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $22k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 94 days — a 9% lower offer ($675k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $429,206 (42.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 94 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 42% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.58% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.49%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.03%
• DSCR: 0.55
• GRM: 14.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $915,675
• List price: $741,746
• Delta: -18.99%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2408 Grand Teton Ln	0.80mi	4/5.0	3,411 (-1%)	0mo	$950,000	$279	62
4651 High Point Dr	0.81mi	5/4.5 (+1)	3,491 (+2%)	0mo	$865,000	$248	57
4601 Lake Dr	0.73mi	4/3.5	3,244 (-6%)	3mo	$915,000	$282	50
2001 Tallulah Gorge Ct	0.80mi	5/4.0 (+1)	3,251 (-5%)	1mo	$683,325	$210	48
2412 Grand Teton Ln	0.80mi	4/5.0	3,709 (+8%)	2mo	$971,480	$262	48
2625 Dreamers Ln	1.09mi	5/5.5 (+1)	3,588 (+4%)	1mo	$629,795	$176	48
2621 Dreamers Ln	1.08mi	5/5.5 (+1)	3,600 (+5%)	0mo	$612,869	$170	48
3607 Water Lily Way	0.75mi	4/5.0	3,642 (+6%)	8mo	$729,990	$200	46
4601 Church St	0.71mi	4/3.0	3,029 (-12%)	4mo	$899,000	$297	38
4750 High Point Dr	0.93mi	4/3.5	3,648 (+6%)	16mo	$999,999	$274	37
9095 County Road 128	1.01mi	4/3.0	4,100 (+19%)	14mo	$1,995,000	$487	22

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -38.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.19×
• Total profit: $-247,423
• Equity at exit: $110,597

10-year hold

• IRR: -81.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.98×
• Total profit: $-411,399
• Equity at exit: $64,133

Cash invested: $207,689 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 26 active · 5 under contract
• Months of supply: 26.0 mo (4%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $634,900 ($196/sqft)
• Median days on market: 87 d
• This list price: 92% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +36.1% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75009

• Home prices YoY: -23.1%
• Rents YoY: -4.6%
• Active inventory: 3407
• Price-to-rent: 14.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,292 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,890
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$927 /mo · $11,126/yr
• Insurance: −$309
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$901
• Net cashflow: $-1,802

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,573

Max offer price $481,027

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,289	-5% $-1,545	+0% $-1,802	+5% $-2,058	+10% $-2,314
Rent	-10% $-2,141	-5% $-1,971	+0% $-1,802	+5% $-1,632	+10% $-1,463
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,428	-0.5pp $-1,613	base $-1,802	+0.5pp $-1,994	+1.0pp $-2,190

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $185,436
• Closing costs: $22,252
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1504 Brook Ln Celina, TX	4.0	3.5	3896	$7,995	$2.05	37d	1	1.22mi
1320 Hunter Ln Celina, TX	4.0	2.5	2696	$3,150	$1.17	4d	1	1.45mi
1717 Green Valley Way Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2508	$2,600	$1.04	0d	1	1.48mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price reported

Exterior

• Parking: 3-car garage / 3 total parking spaces
• Home design: Spec new-construction home, Plan name: PeonyActive listing

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 4 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Open living area (3,433 total living area reported)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $741,746 Active 94 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $741,746 Active 92 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $741,746 Active 91 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $741,746 Active 90 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $741,746 Active 89 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $741,746 Active 86 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $741,746 Active 85 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $741,746 Active 84 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $741,746 Active 83 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $741,746 Active 81 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $741,746 Active 79 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $741,746 Active 78 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $741,746 Active 77 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    pricedays on market $741,746 Active 76 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $749,746 Active 75 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $749,746 Active 73 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $749,746 Active 72 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $749,746 Active 71 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $749,746 Active 70 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $749,746 Active 69 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $749,746 Active 68 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $749,746 Active 67 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $749,746 Active 66 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $749,746 Active 65 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $749,746 Active 64 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $749,746 Active 62 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $749,746 Active 61 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $749,746 Active 60 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $749,746 Active 59 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $749,746 Active 58 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $749,746 Active 57 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $749,746 Active 56 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $749,746 Active 55 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $749,746 Active 54 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $749,746 Active 53 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $749,746 Active 52 DOM
37. 2026-06-26
    pricedays on market $749,746 Active 51 DOM
38. 2026-06-24
    days on market $769,898 Active 49 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $769,898 Active 47 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    pricedays on market $769,898 Active 46 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $774,898 Active 43 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $774,898 Active 42 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $774,898 Active 41 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $774,898 Active 40 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $774,898 Active 38 DOM
46. 2026-06-09
    days on market $774,898 Active 34 DOM
47. 2026-06-08
    days on market $774,898 Active 33 DOM
48. 2026-06-07
    days on market $774,898 Active 32 DOM
49. 2026-06-04
    days on market $774,898 Active 29 DOM
50. 2026-06-03
    days on market $774,898 Active 28 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $51,505
• − Mortgage interest: −$41,549
• − Property taxes: −$11,126
• − Insurance: −$4,506
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,120
• − Management: −$4,120
• − Depreciation: −$21,578
• Taxable loss: −$35,496
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$8,519
• After-tax cash flow: $-13,102/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This brand new Peony plan home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a beautiful and functional layout with high-end finishes and a well-maintained exterior. Potential buyers and renters will appreciate the modern design and curb appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Improves convenience and adds modern appeal ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 53/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Marcy B Lykins El F TX #1,243/4,322 Nat'l #17,190/41,679 Middle Jerry & Linda Moore Middle B TX #197/1,662 Nat'l #2,084/14,009 High Celina H S C TX #320/1,632 Nat'l #3,986/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Celina ISD
• NCES district ID: 4813290
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $83,282
• Composite: 50.49/100
• National rank: #1853
• State rank: #71 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 68/100

Livability — Celina

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #450
• US rank: #9135

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Celina, TX
• County: Collin County · 1,210,074 people
• City population: 34,260
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,260
• Household income: $168,250
• Rent vs Own: 8.0% rent · 92.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 25% of renters

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Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 11% Asian 11% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Lithuanian 4% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 6% Chinese 3% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

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Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.07%
• Current HPI: 276.6307
• Rent YoY: ▼ -4.62%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price reported

Exterior

• Parking: 3-car garage / 3 total parking spaces
• Home design: Spec new-construction home, Plan name: PeonyActive listing

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 4 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Open living area (3,433 total living area reported)