13907 Mueck Rd · Needville, TX 77461

$199,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,133 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 135 Days on market

Built 1965 1.81 ac lot $94/sqft · 51% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Situated on almost 2 acres in Fort Bend County, this home as four bedrooms, two full bathrooms, a two-car garage and horse stables.

Key facts

• Horse stables
• Almost 2 acres
• 1.81 acre lot

Tags

• ALMOST 2 ACRES
• HORSE STABLES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $187 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $176k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 2.5% in Needville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#137 in TX, #3,992 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Needville ISD (rural): math 55% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #95 of 826 in TX (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 337 active listings in the ZIP; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 135 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $45k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 135 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.01%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $408,056
• List price: $199,900
• Delta: -51.01%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13710 Mueck Rd	0.23mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,977 (-7%)	1mo	$310,000	$157	71

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-20,318
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-1,659
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77461

• Home prices YoY: -22.9%
• Active inventory: 337
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,275 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$479 /mo · $5,746/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$478
• Net cashflow: $187

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,038

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,900 Active 135 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,900 Active 134 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,900 Active 133 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,900 Active 132 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,900 Active 130 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,900 Active 129 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,900 Active 126 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,900 Active 125 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,900 Active 124 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $199,900 Active 121 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,900 Active 120 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,900 Active 119 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,900 Active 118 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,900 Active 117 DOM
15. 2026-05-15
    price $199,900 131-char remark

    Show marketing remark (131 chars)

    Situated on almost 2 acres in Fort Bend County, this home as four bedrooms, two full bathrooms, a two-car garage and horse stables.

16. 2026-04-17
    price $219,900 131-char remark

    Show marketing remark (131 chars)

    Situated on almost 2 acres in Fort Bend County, this home as four bedrooms, two full bathrooms, a two-car garage and horse stables.

17. 2026-03-20
    price $229,900 131-char remark

    Show marketing remark (131 chars)

    Situated on almost 2 acres in Fort Bend County, this home as four bedrooms, two full bathrooms, a two-car garage and horse stables.

18. 2026-02-03
    listed $244,900 Active 131-char remark

    Show marketing remark (131 chars)

    Situated on almost 2 acres in Fort Bend County, this home as four bedrooms, two full bathrooms, a two-car garage and horse stables.

19. 2025-09-18
    soldstatus
20. 2025-09-09
    historical
21. 2025-05-06
    listed $299,000 Active
22. 2025-04-21
    historical
23. 2024-10-21
    status Active
24. 2024-10-19
    historical
25. 2024-07-12
    price $279,900
26. 2024-07-08
    price $289,000
27. 2024-06-24
    price $299,000
28. 2024-05-23
    price $339,900
29. 2024-04-18
    listed $349,900 Active
30. 2013-11-06
    historical
31. 2013-11-05
    soldstatus Sold
32. 2013-09-08
    status Pending
33. 2011-12-05
    listed $90,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,746 · $479/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,746 · $479/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,300
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$5,746
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,184
• − Management: −$2,184
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$826
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$198
• After-tax cash flow: $2,440/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Needville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832310
• Math proficiency: 55% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $62,900
• Composite: 48.17/100
• National rank: #2176
• State rank: #95 of 826 in TX

Livability — Needville

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #137
• US rank: #3992

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,397

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (50%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 45% Two or more races 18% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 28% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -96.17%
• Current HPI: 324.3807
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+122.1% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $199,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $219,900 HARMLS
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $229,900 HARMLS
• 2026-02-03 Listed $244,900 HARMLS
• 2025-09-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-09-09 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-05-06 Listed $299,000 HARMLS
• 2025-04-21 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-10-21 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2024-10-19 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-07-12 Price Changed $279,900 HARMLS
• 2024-07-08 Price Changed $289,000 HARMLS
• 2024-06-24 Price Changed $299,000 HARMLS
• 2024-05-23 Price Changed $339,900 HARMLS
• 2024-04-18 Listed $349,900 HARMLS
• 2013-11-06 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2013-11-05 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2013-09-08 Pending — HARMLS
• 2011-12-05 Listed $90,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,746 · -1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.