1605 Tiny Branch Rd · Jellico, TN 40940

$105,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 784 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 29 Days on market

Built 2001 0.50 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Cute cottage style home with privacy in a rural setting, well water (county water is available at the driveway). Septic system, home was built in 2001 and sits on an acre lot per seller. This home would make a great get-a-way spot or full time residence. The home/property is in Whitley county Ky but the property is serviced by the Bell County Ky school system. The local elementary is Frakes which is about 4 miles away. Close to the TN/KY state line, local convenient stores and a Dollar General.

Key facts

• Half an acre lot
• Rural setting
• Well water

Tags

• COTTAGE STYLE HOME
• RURAL SETTING
• WELL WATER
• SEPTIC SYSTEM
• HALF AN ACRE LOT
• BELL COUNTY SCHOOL SYSTEM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Parcel number 221-00-00-030.00

Exterior

• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Water service available
• Home design: Single-family dwelling (rural setting)
• Construction: Vinyl siding exterior; Block foundation; Shingle roof; Built area approximately 820
• Exterior features: Few trees; Rural, trees/woods and mountain views

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Range
• Bedrooms: 2 rooms (bedroom count reflected in total rooms)
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Heat pump; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; No fireplace; 2 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $18 ($214/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $84k (20.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $84k (20.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.3% in Jellico — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#352 in TN) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Whitley County (rural): math 26% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #80 of 165 in KY (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Boston Elementary School (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #393 of 676 statewide, top 63%, 191 students, 86% FRL); Whitley County Middle School (math 31% / reading 50%, grade F, #57 of 217 statewide, top 26%, 563 students, 80% FRL); Whitley County High School (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #127 of 254 statewide, top 58%, 980 students, 73% FRL).
• Market conditions: 65 units permitted in Whitley County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($726 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Whitley County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($103k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $83,636 (20.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.73%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.47×
• Total profit: $13,745
• Equity at exit: $47,213

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.61×
• Total profit: $47,305
• Equity at exit: $72,760

Cash invested: $29,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $836 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax from tax record: −$49 /mo · $582/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$176
• Net cashflow: $18

Break-even live

Break-even rent $814

Max offer price $105,000

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,250
• Closing costs: $3,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $105,000 Active 29 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $105,000 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $105,000 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $105,000 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $105,000 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $105,000 Active 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $105,000 Active 20 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $105,000 Active 19 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $105,000 Active 18 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $105,000 Active 17 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $105,000 Active 14 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $105,000 Active 13 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $105,000 Active 12 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $105,000 Active 11 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $105,000 Active 10 DOM
16. 2026-05-20
    listed $105,000 Active
17. 2018-09-12
    soldstatus $165,000
18. 2008-07-23
    soldstatus $28,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $582 · $49/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $746 · $62/mo
• Expected delta: +$163/yr (+$14/mo · 28.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,036
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,882
• − Property taxes: −$582
• − Insurance: −$525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$803
• − Management: −$803
• − Depreciation: −$3,055
• Taxable loss: −$1,613
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$387
• After-tax cash flow: $601/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Whitley County
• NCES district ID: 2105880
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -25.00%
• Median HH income: $29,079
• Composite: 27.87/100
• National rank: #6874
• State rank: #80 of 165 in KY

Livability — Jellico

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #352
• US rank: #23161

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment F Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 2,528
• Population (ZIP): 388

Population outlook (Whitley County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 35,362 people
• By 2030: 34,807 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 33,525 · -5.2%
• By 2050: 32,550 · -8.0%
• By 2075: 29,555 · -16.4%
• By 2100: 24,308 · -31.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 9%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Whitley

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+69.3) · D 14.8% · R 84.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.7pp toward R · 2008: -47.7pp · 2024: -69.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+69.3 2020: R+65.2 2016: R+67.2 2012: R+57.8 2008: R+47.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+275.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $105,000 ImagineMLS
• 2018-09-12 Sold (Public Records) $165,000 Public Records
• 2008-07-23 Sold (Public Records) $28,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.9%/yr

Latest (2024): $582 · -3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.