14216 Bear Mountain Rd #55 · Jones Valley, CA 96003

$44,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · Manufactured · 60 Days on market

Built 1967 Good condition ↓ 37% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located in Big Rise Village, a gated community under new ownership with ongoing park improvements, this unique cabin style mobile home offers character and comfort rarely found in similar homes. Community upgrades include a dog park, on site laundry facilities with convenient online payment, and secured resident only gated access with individual entry codes. Originally built in 1967, the home has been thoughtfully enhanced with rustic wood siding, a pitched metal roof, and an enclosed porch sunroom that creates a warm mountain cabin atmosphere. Offering approximately 672 square feet, the home features a functional one bedroom, one bathroom layout along with a loft area ideal for additional sleeping space or storage. The private setting is surrounded by trees and open space, providing a peaceful environment within the community. Exterior features include a private deck, storage shed, updated skirting, dedicated propane system, window air conditioning, and an on demand water heater. The refrigerator is included for added convenience. This is one of the most distinctive and livable homes in the park, combining charm, functionality, and a serene natural setting.

Key facts

• Gated community
• Private deck
• Pitched metal roof

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• RUSTIC WOOD SIDING
• PITCHED METAL ROOF
• ENCLOSED PORCH SUNROOM
• PRIVATE DECK
• STORAGE SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $44k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $894 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $44k).
• Recommended offer: $43k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Gateway Unified (suburban): math 25% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #355 of 517 in CA (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.0%/yr); 391 active listings in the ZIP; 246 units permitted in Shasta County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $308 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Shasta County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.0% rent growth), your $12k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($43k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $43,165 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.42% ✓
• Cap rate: 30.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 86.12%
• DSCR: 4.83
• GRM: 2.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 90.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.37×
• Total profit: $54,464
• Equity at exit: $6,635

10-year hold

• IRR: 93.6%
• Equity multiple: 12.34×
• Total profit: $141,349
• Equity at exit: $3,848

Cash invested: $12,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96003

• Rents YoY: 6.0%
• Active inventory: 391
• Price-to-rent: 2.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,521 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$233
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$56 /mo · $668/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$319
• Net cashflow: $894

Break-even live

Break-even rent $389

Max offer price $44,500

Occupancy floor 36%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $925	-5% $910	+0% $894	+5% $879	+10% $863
Rent	-10% $774	-5% $834	+0% $894	+5% $954	+10% $1,014
Rate	-1.0pp $917	-0.5pp $906	base $894	+0.5pp $883	+1.0pp $871

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,125
• Closing costs: $1,335
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $44,500 Active 60 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $44,500 Active 59 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $44,500 Active 58 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $44,500 Active 57 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $44,500 Active 56 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $44,500 Active 54 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $44,500 Active 53 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $44,500 Active 51 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $44,500 Active 50 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $44,500 Active 49 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $44,500 Active 48 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $44,500 Active 44 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $44,500 Active 43 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $44,500 Active 42 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $44,500 Active 41 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $44,500 Active 40 DOM
17. 2026-05-05
    price $49,500 1176-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1176 chars)

    Located in Big Rise Village, a gated community under new ownership with ongoing park improvements, this unique cabin style mobile home offers character and comfort rarely found in similar homes. Community upgrades include a dog park, on site laundry facilities with convenient online payment, and secured resident only gated access with individual entry codes. Originally built in 1967, the home has been thoughtfully enhanced with rustic wood siding, a pitched metal roof, and an enclosed porch sunroom that creates a warm mountain cabin atmosphere. Offering approximately 672 square feet, the home features a functional one bedroom, one bathroom layout along with a loft area ideal for additional sleeping space or storage. The private setting is surrounded by trees and open space, providing a peaceful environment within the community. Exterior features include a private deck, storage shed, updated skirting, dedicated propane system, window air conditioning, and an on demand water heater. The refrigerator is included for added convenience. This is one of the most distinctive and livable homes in the park, combining charm, functionality, and a serene natural setting.

18. 2026-04-23
    price $64,900 1176-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1176 chars)

    Located in Big Rise Village, a gated community under new ownership with ongoing park improvements, this unique cabin style mobile home offers character and comfort rarely found in similar homes. Community upgrades include a dog park, on site laundry facilities with convenient online payment, and secured resident only gated access with individual entry codes. Originally built in 1967, the home has been thoughtfully enhanced with rustic wood siding, a pitched metal roof, and an enclosed porch sunroom that creates a warm mountain cabin atmosphere. Offering approximately 672 square feet, the home features a functional one bedroom, one bathroom layout along with a loft area ideal for additional sleeping space or storage. The private setting is surrounded by trees and open space, providing a peaceful environment within the community. Exterior features include a private deck, storage shed, updated skirting, dedicated propane system, window air conditioning, and an on demand water heater. The refrigerator is included for added convenience. This is one of the most distinctive and livable homes in the park, combining charm, functionality, and a serene natural setting.

19. 2026-04-20
    listed $79,000 Active 1176-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1176 chars)

    Located in Big Rise Village, a gated community under new ownership with ongoing park improvements, this unique cabin style mobile home offers character and comfort rarely found in similar homes. Community upgrades include a dog park, on site laundry facilities with convenient online payment, and secured resident only gated access with individual entry codes. Originally built in 1967, the home has been thoughtfully enhanced with rustic wood siding, a pitched metal roof, and an enclosed porch sunroom that creates a warm mountain cabin atmosphere. Offering approximately 672 square feet, the home features a functional one bedroom, one bathroom layout along with a loft area ideal for additional sleeping space or storage. The private setting is surrounded by trees and open space, providing a peaceful environment within the community. Exterior features include a private deck, storage shed, updated skirting, dedicated propane system, window air conditioning, and an on demand water heater. The refrigerator is included for added convenience. This is one of the most distinctive and livable homes in the park, combining charm, functionality, and a serene natural setting.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 45 unhealthy d/yr today · 48 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,255
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,493
• − Property taxes: −$668
• − Insurance: −$222
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,460
• − Management: −$1,460
• − Depreciation: −$1,295
• Taxable income: $10,657
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,558
• After-tax cash flow: $8,173/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This cabin-style mobile home is in good condition with a functional layout and rustic charm. Minor updates to the exterior and HVAC system can significantly enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and protects the siding.
• Resale Replace blinds with energy-efficient windows — Improves energy efficiency and enhances curb appeal.
• Both Upgrade HVAC system — Improves comfort and energy efficiency, attracting both buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and protects the siding. ↑
• Resale Replace blinds with energy-efficient windows — Improves energy efficiency and enhances curb appeal. ↑
• Both Upgrade HVAC system — Improves comfort and energy efficiency, attracting both buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gateway Unified
• NCES district ID: 0614950
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $41,888
• Composite: 25.39/100
• National rank: #7465
• State rank: #355 of 517 in CA

Livability — Jones Valley

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Shasta County · 147,641 people
• Metro: Redding, CA
• Population (ZIP): 44,923
• Household income: $72,445
• Rent vs Own: 41.5% rent · 58.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1668.0

Population outlook (Shasta County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,231 people
• By 2030: 176,953 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 169,982 · -5.2%
• By 2050: 162,547 · -9.3%
• By 2075: 145,649 · -18.7%
• By 2100: 123,025 · -31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10% Asian 4% Native American 1% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Shasta

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.5) · D 30.5% · R 67.0% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.7pp toward R · 2008: -25.8pp · 2024: -36.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.5 2020: R+33.1 2016: R+37.4 2012: R+30.3 2008: R+25.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -181.66%
• Current HPI: 152.3069
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.98%
• Metro: Redding, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-37.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $49,500 SAOR
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $64,900 SAOR
• 2026-04-20 Listed $79,000 SAOR