1829 Ponderosa Ave · Richmond, MI 48063

$79,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,700 sqft · Manufactured · 93 Days on market

Built 2019 Good condition $47/sqft · 38% above area Est $58k · 38% over ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Built 2019
• Listed 93 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $80k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $514 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $73k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.0% vs local median 1.8% in Richmond — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#385 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, employment D, amenities F.
• East China School District (suburban): math 32% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #208 of 540 in MI (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 43 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 232 units permitted in St. Clair County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $552 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Clair County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $72,709 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.69% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.55%
• DSCR: 2.23
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $58,000
• List price: $79,900
• Delta: 37.76%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1905 Magnolia St	0.09mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,700 (0%)	2mo	$34,500	$20	89
1846 Ponderosa Ave	0.05mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,791 (+5%)	9mo	$89,000	$50	76
1105 Forest Ln	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,456 (-14%)	4mo	$58,000	$40	54
142 Applewood Ct	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,456 (-14%)	10mo	$76,000	$52	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.88×
• Total profit: $19,781
• Equity at exit: $11,913

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.66×
• Total profit: $59,424
• Equity at exit: $6,908

Cash invested: $22,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48063

• Active inventory: 43
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,349 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$100 /mo · $1,198/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$283
• Net cashflow: $514

Break-even live

Break-even rent $699

Max offer price $79,900

Occupancy floor 57%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $569	-5% $541	+0% $514	+5% $486	+10% $458
Rent	-10% $407	-5% $460	+0% $514	+5% $567	+10% $620
Rate	-1.0pp $554	-0.5pp $534	base $514	+0.5pp $493	+1.0pp $472

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,975
• Closing costs: $2,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2109 Redwood Ave Columbus, MI	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	920	$1,349	$1.47	0d	1	0.23mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,900 Active 93 DOM
2. 2026-06-12
   days on market $79,900 Active 92 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $79,900 Active 89 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $79,900 Active 88 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $79,900 Active 87 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $79,900 Active 86 DOM
7. 2026-06-04
   days on market $79,900 Active 83 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $79,900 Active 82 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $79,900 Active 81 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,900 Active 80 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,900 Active 79 DOM
12. 2026-03-26
    price $79,900
13. 2026-03-26
    price $79,900
14. 2026-03-12
    listed $84,900 Active
15. 2026-03-12
    listed $84,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,188
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,476
• − Property taxes: −$1,198
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,295
• − Management: −$1,295
• − Depreciation: −$2,324
• Taxable income: $5,200
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,248
• After-tax cash flow: $4,914/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home is in good condition with minimal repairs needed. Painting the exterior and replacing gutters would significantly enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace gutters — Improves drainage and aesthetics

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace gutters — Improves drainage and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East China School District
• NCES district ID: 2612420
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $56,455
• Composite: 34.23/100
• National rank: #5260
• State rank: #208 of 540 in MI

Livability — Richmond

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #385
• US rank: #10232

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,106

Population outlook (St. Clair County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 154,587 people
• By 2030: 150,031 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 138,177 · -10.6%
• By 2050: 124,390 · -19.5%
• By 2075: 95,825 · -38.0%
• By 2100: 68,672 · -55.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 6% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 15% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Clair

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+34.6) · D 32.0% · R 66.6% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -37.3pp toward R · 2008: 2.6pp · 2024: -34.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+34.6 2020: R+30.2 2016: R+31.4 2012: R+7.1 2008: D+2.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -149.87%
• Current HPI: 153.779
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-5.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $79,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $79,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-03-12 Listed $84,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-03-12 Listed $84,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS