264 Oak Ridge Dr · Sunrise Beach, MO 65079

$95,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · SingleFamily · 185 Days on market

Built 1999 Average condition $63/sqft · 81% below area ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home located in a quiet subdivision, conveniently close to the many amenities offered on the west side of the lake. This well-designed home offers generous living space and a functional layout ideal for comfortable everyday living. The large primary suite features a corner soaking tub and a walk-in shower, creating a relaxing private retreat. Enjoy outdoor living on the screened-in back deck, perfect for unwinding while taking in the peaceful surroundings. Additional features include a 2-car carport for covered parking. The home is not affixed, as the sellers do not own the land. The land is leased for $175 per month. A great opportunity for affordable living in a quiet neighborhood with easy access to shopping, dining, and lake-area attractions.

Key facts

• Quiet subdivision
• Walk-in shower
• Corner soaking tub

Tags

• SCREENED-IN BACK DECK
• CORNER SOAKING TUB
• WALK-IN SHOWER
• QUIET SUBDIVISION
• EASY ACCESS TO SHOPPING
• PEACEFUL SURROUNDINGS

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $95,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$509,503) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $95k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $477 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $84k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.3% vs local median 0.9% in Sunrise Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#280 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Camdenton R-III (rural): math 46% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #68 of 324 in MO (top 21%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 331 active listings in the ZIP; 272 units permitted in Camden County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Camden County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 185 days — a 12% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $83,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 185 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.51% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.51%
• DSCR: 1.96
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $509,503
• List price: $95,000
• Delta: -81.35%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.56×
• Total profit: $14,992
• Equity at exit: $14,165

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.96×
• Total profit: $52,243
• Equity at exit: $8,214

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65079

• Home prices YoY: -21.9%
• Active inventory: 331
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,435 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$119 /mo · $1,425/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$301
• Net cashflow: $477

Break-even live

Break-even rent $831

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 62%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $95,000 Active 185 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $95,000 Active 184 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $95,000 Active 183 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $95,000 Active 182 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $95,000 Active 181 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $95,000 Active 179 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $95,000 Active 178 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $95,000 Active 175 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $95,000 Active 174 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $95,000 Active 173 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $95,000 Active 170 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $95,000 Active 169 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $95,000 Active 168 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $95,000 Active 167 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $95,000 Active 166 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $95,000 Active 165 DOM
17. 2026-04-20
    price $95,000 796-char remark

    Show marketing remark (796 chars)

    Spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home located in a quiet subdivision, conveniently close to the many amenities offered on the west side of the lake. This well-designed home offers generous living space and a functional layout ideal for comfortable everyday living. The large primary suite features a corner soaking tub and a walk-in shower, creating a relaxing private retreat. Enjoy outdoor living on the screened-in back deck, perfect for unwinding while taking in the peaceful surroundings. Additional features include a 2-car carport for covered parking. The home is not affixed, as the sellers do not own the land. The land is leased for $175 per month. A great opportunity for affordable living in a quiet neighborhood with easy access to shopping, dining, and lake-area attractions.

18. 2025-12-16
    listed $99,000 Active 796-char remark

    Show marketing remark (796 chars)

    Spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home located in a quiet subdivision, conveniently close to the many amenities offered on the west side of the lake. This well-designed home offers generous living space and a functional layout ideal for comfortable everyday living. The large primary suite features a corner soaking tub and a walk-in shower, creating a relaxing private retreat. Enjoy outdoor living on the screened-in back deck, perfect for unwinding while taking in the peaceful surroundings. Additional features include a 2-car carport for covered parking. The home is not affixed, as the sellers do not own the land. The land is leased for $175 per month. A great opportunity for affordable living in a quiet neighborhood with easy access to shopping, dining, and lake-area attractions.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,214
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$1,425
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,377
• − Management: −$1,377
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $4,475
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,074
• After-tax cash flow: $4,647/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Average 55/100 Moderate rehab

A moderately rehabbed home with average condition, offering a good opportunity for updates to enhance its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor deck — slight wear
• Minor landscaping — bare patches

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint exterior — enhances curb appeal and resale value
• Both replace carpet — improves comfort and aesthetics
• Resale update kitchen cabinets — modernizes the space and adds value
• Resale install new windows — increases natural light and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
deck · slight wear	Minor	$500–3,000
landscaping · bare patches	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint exterior — enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both replace carpet — improves comfort and aesthetics ↑
• Resale update kitchen cabinets — modernizes the space and adds value ↑
• Resale install new windows — increases natural light and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Camdenton R-III
• NCES district ID: 2906990
• Math proficiency: 46% ▲ 10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $46,496
• Composite: 39.96/100
• National rank: #3838
• State rank: #68 of 324 in MO

Livability — Sunrise Beach

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #280
• US rank: #13077

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sunrise Beach, MO
• Population (ZIP): 4,240

Population outlook (Camden County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 44,585 people
• By 2030: 44,476 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 43,513 · -2.4%
• By 2050: 41,705 · -6.5%
• By 2075: 36,903 · -17.2%
• By 2100: 30,164 · -32.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Camden

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+54.3) · D 22.4% · R 76.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.8pp toward R · 2008: -28.5pp · 2024: -54.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+54.3 2020: R+53.2 2016: R+54.2 2012: R+39.3 2008: R+28.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -48.58%
• Current HPI: 173.0265
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-4.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $95,000 LOBR
• 2025-12-16 Listed $99,000 LOBR