527 Grefer Ave · Harvey, LA 70058

$215,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,369 sqft · SingleFamily · 65 Days on market

Built 1940 5,458 sqft lot $157/sqft · at area comps Est $217k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.3/30.0
• ARV discount +8.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Don't let the charming curb appeal fool you -- this cottage has room to breathe. From the moment you step onto the inviting front porch, you'll feel the personality of this home. The living room features a soaring 14.5-foot ceiling and wood floors flood the living area with light and space you simply won't expect. The fireplace is the real deal -- wood-burning and ready for a cozy evening in. The kitchen blends function and charm with a newer oven/range and hood alongside warm wood countertops that feel like they belong in a cookbook. The oversized primary suite is a true retreat, and two additional well-sized bedrooms plus a hall bath round out the main floor. Head upstairs to discover a whimsical bonus space complete with built-in- great as bedroom or a reading nook that sparks envy. Outside, a fully fenced yard with lush landscaping creates a private oasis, and the rear workshop/garage is a dream for hobbyists, DIYers, and anyone who's ever needed just a little more space for projects. Storage abounds throughout. This one checks every box -- and then some. Lagniappe: X flood zone, and under termite contract. This quiet neighborhood is conveniently located to shopping, dining, and the West Bank Expressway. You know you want to take the house tour- schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Wood floors
• Newer oven range
• Front porch

Tags

• FRONT PORCH
• WOOD FLOORS
• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• NEWER OVEN RANGE
• WOOD COUNTERTOPS
• BONUS SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $90 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $203k (5.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $202k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 4.8% in Harvey — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#166 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Jefferson Parish (suburban): math 24% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #44 of 98 in LA (top 45%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.9%/yr); 187 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 518 units permitted in Jefferson Parish in 2024 (43 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $202,100 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.12%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $217,321
• List price: $215,000
• Delta: -1.07%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
615 Brown Ave	0.18mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,275 (-7%)	4mo	$220,000	$173	72
611 Macarthur Ave	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,406 (+3%)	1mo	$255,000	$181	63
742 1st. Ave	0.52mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,350 (-1%)	14mo	$209,900	$155	57
533 Maple Ave	0.29mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,531 (+12%)	11mo	$90,000	$59	53
828 3rd Ave	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,333 (-3%)	11mo	$235,000	$176	50
647 Bellanger St	0.69mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,330 (-3%)	7mo	$209,000	$157	48
1908 Otis St	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,272 (-7%)	4mo	$169,000	$133	47
753 3rd Ave	0.59mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,256 (-8%)	3mo	$174,900	$139	47
1030 Estalote Ave	0.70mi	4/2.5	1,497 (+9%)	8mo	$259,995	$174	44
816 2nd Ave	0.61mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,539 (+12%)	6mo	$259,000	$168	40
426 Macarthur Ave	0.58mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,168 (-15%)	8mo	$157,000	$134	33
448 Bellanger St	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,528 (+12%)	20mo	$187,000	$122	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-34,981
• Equity at exit: $32,057

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-45,812
• Equity at exit: $18,589

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70058

• Rents YoY: -3.9%
• Active inventory: 187
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,025 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$226 /mo · $2,713/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$425
• Net cashflow: $90

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,911

Max offer price $215,000

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 32 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
433 Olive Ave Harvey, LA	3.0	1.0	1104	$1,600	$1.45	23d	1	0.40mi
429 Olive Ave Harvey, LA	3.0	1.0	1067	$1,500	$1.41	23d	1	0.40mi
532 Chalmette St Harvey, LA	3.0	1.0	1224	$1,450	$1.18	3d	1	0.48mi
728 Lydia Ct Marrero, LA	3.0	3.5	1500	$2,600	$1.73	4d	1	0.88mi
433 Avenue A Marrero, LA	3.0	2.0	1558	$1,750	$1.12	43d	1	0.99mi
1145 Warren Dr Harvey, LA	4.0	2.0	1315	$1,750	$1.33	4d	1	1.04mi
511 Avenue B Marrero, LA	3.0	1.0	1044	$1,650	$1.58	43d	1	1.05mi
617 7th St New Orleans, LA	3.0	2.0	1768	$3,400	$1.92	3d	1	1.07mi
2205 Argyll St Harvey, LA	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,750	$1.59	21d	1	1.13mi
515 3rd St New Orleans, LA	3.0	3.0	1687	$2,650	$1.57	44d	1	1.13mi
1121 Farrington Dr Marrero, LA	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,750	$1.75	4d	1	1.17mi
500 Avenue D Marrero, LA	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	43d	1	1.18mi
1028 Gaudet Dr Marrero, LA	3.0	1.5	1420	$1,800	$1.27	43d	1	1.19mi
929 Eighth St New Orleans, LA	3.0	1.5	1600	$2,250	$1.41	23d	1	1.27mi
508 Avenue G Unit A Marrero, LA	3.0	2.0	1062	$1,550	$1.46	43d	1	1.35mi
512 Avenue G Unit G Marrero, LA	3.0	2.0	1418	$1,995	$1.41	14d	1	1.36mi
2502 Laurel St New Orleans, LA	3.0	2.0	1333	$2,300	$1.73	17d	1	1.36mi
612 Fried St Gretna, LA	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,600	$1.28	43d	1	1.37mi
4023 Tchoupitoulas St New Orleans, LA	3.0	2.0	1608	$3,200	$1.99	43d	1	1.40mi
1111 6th St New Orleans, LA	3.0	1.5	1425	$2,995	$2.10	43d	1	1.41mi
1118 Foucher St New Orleans, LA	3.0	2.5	1620	$2,490	$1.54	17d	1	1.42mi
2628 Magazine St New Orleans, LA	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,650	$1.89	17d	1	1.44mi
2608 Magazine St New Orleans, LA	3.0	2.0	1844	$3,100	$1.68	43d	1	1.44mi
2041 S Chippewa St Unit 2041 New Orleans, LA	3.0	2.5	1400	$2,700	$1.93	43d	1	1.45mi
2310 Stafford St Gretna, LA	4.0	2.0	1530	$2,050	$1.34	23d	1	1.45mi
4029 14th St Marrero, LA	3.0	1.5	1511	$1,650	$1.09	4d	1	1.46mi
2115 Chippewa St New Orleans, LA	3.0	2.0	1315	$2,400	$1.83	16d	1	1.47mi
2115 Chippewa St New Orleans, LA	3.0	2.0	1315	$2,500	$1.90	43d	1	1.47mi
1520 Orchid Dr Harvey, LA	3.0	1.5	1100	$1,650	$1.50	4d	1	1.48mi
1520 Orchid Dr Harvey, LA	3.0	1.5	1100	$1,800	$1.64	23d	1	1.48mi
4036 14th St Marrero, LA	4.0	2.0	1350	$1,950	$1.44	21d	1	1.49mi
4029 Chestnut St Marrero, LA	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,100	$1.31	4d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $215,000 Active 65 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $215,000 Active 64 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $215,000 Active 63 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $215,000 Active 62 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $215,000 Active 60 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $215,000 Active 57 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $215,000 Active 56 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $215,000 Active 55 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $215,000 Active 54 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $215,000 Active 50 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $215,000 Active 49 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $215,000 Active 48 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $215,000 Active 47 DOM
14. 2026-04-29
    price $215,000 1298-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1298 chars)

    Don't let the charming curb appeal fool you -- this cottage has room to breathe. From the moment you step onto the inviting front porch, you'll feel the personality of this home. The living room features a soaring 14.5-foot ceiling and wood floors flood the living area with light and space you simply won't expect. The fireplace is the real deal -- wood-burning and ready for a cozy evening in. The kitchen blends function and charm with a newer oven/range and hood alongside warm wood countertops that feel like they belong in a cookbook. The oversized primary suite is a true retreat, and two additional well-sized bedrooms plus a hall bath round out the main floor. Head upstairs to discover a whimsical bonus space complete with built-in- great as bedroom or a reading nook that sparks envy. Outside, a fully fenced yard with lush landscaping creates a private oasis, and the rear workshop/garage is a dream for hobbyists, DIYers, and anyone who's ever needed just a little more space for projects. Storage abounds throughout. This one checks every box -- and then some. Lagniappe: X flood zone, and under termite contract. This quiet neighborhood is conveniently located to shopping, dining, and the West Bank Expressway. You know you want to take the house tour- schedule your showing today!

15. 2026-04-28
    price $215,000 1313-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1313 chars)

    Don't let the charming curb appeal fool you — this cottage has room to breathe. From the moment you step onto the inviting front porch, you'll feel the personality of this home. The living room features a soaring 14.5-foot ceiling and wood floors flood the living area with light and space you simply won't expect. The fireplace is the real deal — wood-burning and ready for a cozy evening in. The kitchen blends function and charm with a newer oven/range and hood alongside warm wood countertops that feel like they belong in a cookbook. The oversized primary suite is a true retreat, and two additional well-sized bedrooms plus a hall bath round out the main floor. Head upstairs to discover a whimsical bonus space complete with built-in- great as bedroom or a reading nook that sparks envy. Outside, a fully fenced yard with lush landscaping creates a private oasis, and the rear workshop/garage is a dream for hobbyists, DIYers, and anyone who's ever needed just a little more space for projects. Storage abounds throughout. This one checks every box — and then some. Lagniappe: X flood zone, and under termite contract. This quiet neighborhood is conveniently located to shopping, dining, and the West Bank Expressway. You know you want to take the house tour- schedule your showing today!

16. 2026-04-14
    listed $225,000 Active 1298-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1313 chars)

    Don't let the charming curb appeal fool you — this cottage has room to breathe. From the moment you step onto the inviting front porch, you'll feel the personality of this home. The living room features a soaring 14.5-foot ceiling and wood floors flood the living area with light and space you simply won't expect. The fireplace is the real deal — wood-burning and ready for a cozy evening in. The kitchen blends function and charm with a newer oven/range and hood alongside warm wood countertops that feel like they belong in a cookbook. The oversized primary suite is a true retreat, and two additional well-sized bedrooms plus a hall bath round out the main floor. Head upstairs to discover a whimsical bonus space complete with built-in- great as bedroom or a reading nook that sparks envy. Outside, a fully fenced yard with lush landscaping creates a private oasis, and the rear workshop/garage is a dream for hobbyists, DIYers, and anyone who's ever needed just a little more space for projects. Storage abounds throughout. This one checks every box — and then some. Lagniappe: X flood zone, and under termite contract. This quiet neighborhood is conveniently located to shopping, dining, and the West Bank Expressway. You know you want to take the house tour- schedule your showing today!

17. 2026-04-14
    listed $225,000 Active 1313-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1313 chars)

    Don't let the charming curb appeal fool you — this cottage has room to breathe. From the moment you step onto the inviting front porch, you'll feel the personality of this home. The living room features a soaring 14.5-foot ceiling and wood floors flood the living area with light and space you simply won't expect. The fireplace is the real deal — wood-burning and ready for a cozy evening in. The kitchen blends function and charm with a newer oven/range and hood alongside warm wood countertops that feel like they belong in a cookbook. The oversized primary suite is a true retreat, and two additional well-sized bedrooms plus a hall bath round out the main floor. Head upstairs to discover a whimsical bonus space complete with built-in- great as bedroom or a reading nook that sparks envy. Outside, a fully fenced yard with lush landscaping creates a private oasis, and the rear workshop/garage is a dream for hobbyists, DIYers, and anyone who's ever needed just a little more space for projects. Storage abounds throughout. This one checks every box — and then some. Lagniappe: X flood zone, and under termite contract. This quiet neighborhood is conveniently located to shopping, dining, and the West Bank Expressway. You know you want to take the house tour- schedule your showing today!

18. 2021-09-23
    soldstatus $215,000
19. 2021-09-17
    soldstatus $215,000 Closed
20. 2021-07-09
    status Pending
21. 2021-07-08
    listed $212,500
22. 2021-07-08
    listed $212,500 Active
23. 2000-06-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,713 · $226/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,713 · $226/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X · 60% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,301
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$2,713
• − Insurance: −$1,872
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,944
• − Management: −$1,944
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable loss: −$2,470
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$593
• After-tax cash flow: $1,676/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson Parish
• NCES district ID: 2200840
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -36.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -30.00%
• Median HH income: $48,421
• Composite: 25.19/100
• National rank: #7511
• State rank: #44 of 98 in LA

Livability — Harvey

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #166
• US rank: #13980

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Harvey, LA
• County: Jefferson Parish · 426,999 people
• City population: 39,578
• Metro: New Orleans-Metairie, LA
• Population (ZIP): 39,578
• Household income: $62,416
• Rent vs Own: 36.2% rent · 63.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1992.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 451,696 people
• By 2030: 455,451 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 458,308 · +1.5%
• By 2050: 461,031 · +2.1%
• By 2075: 476,351 · +5.5%
• By 2100: 499,377 · +10.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 58% White 20% Hispanic / Latino 13% Asian 7% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 10% Vietnamese 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: R (+12.9) · D 42.5% · R 55.5% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +13.6pp toward D · 2008: -26.6pp · 2024: -12.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+12.9 2020: R+11.1 2016: R+14.8 2012: R+18.4 2008: R+26.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -96.82%
• Current HPI: 156.1052
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.88%
• Metro: New Orleans-Metairie, LA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

+1.2% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $215,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $215,000 GSREIN
• 2026-04-14 Listed $225,000 GSREIN
• 2026-04-14 Listed $225,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2021-09-23 Sold (Public Records) $215,000 Public Records
• 2021-09-17 Sold (MLS) $215,000 GSREIN
• 2021-07-09 Pending — GSREIN
• 2021-07-08 Listed $212,500 GSREIN
• 2021-07-08 Listed $212,500 AcadianaMLS
• 2000-06-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,713 · +0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.