511 N Clay St · Henrietta, TX 76365

$94,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 57 Days on market

Built 1969 0.27 ac lot $65/sqft · 33% below area Est $172k · 45% under ↓ 53% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Some houses just need someone who sees past the surface. 511 N Clay St sits on a generous lot in Henrietta, Texas - the county seat of Clay County and the kind of town where your dollar still means something. At 1,440 square feet, this 1969-built single-family home has good bones and room to grow into whatever you need it to be. It's not a showroom. It needs some attention, some elbow grease, and probably a weekend or six. But the structure is there, the lot is substantial, and the opportunity is real - whether you're a handy owner-occupant looking to build sweat equity, an investor adding to your North Texas portfolio, or someone who's simply tired of paying move-in-ready prices for someon

Key facts

• Generous lot
• 0.27 acre lot
• Built 1969

Tags

• GENEROUS LOT
• LAKE ARROWHEAD STATE PARK

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property is for sale (MLS status: Active)
• Financial info: Loan type listed as Treat As Clear; No second mortgage indicated
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway (no covered spaces, no garage, no carport)
• Utilities: Utilities: Other; Not in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; Not attached to other units
• Construction: Built in 1969
• Exterior features: Lot under 0.5 acre (approx. 0.266 acres); Subdivision: Town Henrietta; Use GPS for directions

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on level 1 (approx. 13 x 12); Bedroom on level 1 (approx. 13 x 10); Bedroom on level 2 (approx. 12 x 10)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Interior features: Six total rooms; Two levels; Fireplace in the living room; Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: No smart-home features listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $94k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $125 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $94k).
• Recommended offer: $91k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 3.1% in Henrietta — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#379 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Henrietta ISD (rural): math 47% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #219 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Henrietta El (math 47% / reading 47%, grade D-, #1,006 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 481 students, 53% FRL).
• Market conditions: 76 active listings in the ZIP; 13 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $650 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clay County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($91k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $6k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.7% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $91,180 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.68%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $172,057
• List price: $94,000
• Delta: -45.37%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
916 N Bridge St	0.24mi	3/1.0	1,280 (-11%)	9mo	$75,000	$59	59
407 S Clay	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,292 (-10%)	7mo	$240,000	$186	55
516 E Crafton St	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,232 (-14%)	15mo	$169,000	$137	53
316 N Carroll St	0.58mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,480 (+3%)	15mo	$62,000	$42	47
1110 E Ikard St	0.73mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,480 (+3%)	14mo	$145,000	$98	44
402 S Red Riv	0.65mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,266 (-12%)	1mo	$135,000	$107	40
1005 E Wichita St	0.61mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,328 (-8%)	16mo	$155,000	$117	39
1102 E Ikard St	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,224 (-15%)	14mo	$75,000	$61	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-7,170
• Equity at exit: $14,016

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.17×
• Total profit: $4,488
• Equity at exit: $8,127

Cash invested: $26,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76365

• Home prices YoY: -18.4%
• Active inventory: 76
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,203 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$493
• Tax from tax record: −$293 /mo · $3,520/yr
• Insurance: −$39
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$253
• Net cashflow: $125

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,045

Max offer price $94,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $178	-5% $151	+0% $125	+5% $98	+10% $71
Rent	-10% $30	-5% $77	+0% $125	+5% $172	+10% $220
Rate	-1.0pp $172	-0.5pp $149	base $125	+0.5pp $100	+1.0pp $75

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,500
• Closing costs: $2,820
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $94,000 Active 57 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $94,000 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $94,000 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $94,000 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   status $94,000 Active 53 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $94,000 Active Option Contract 53 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $94,000 Active Option Contract 51 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $94,000 Active Option Contract 50 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $94,000 Active Option Contract 48 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $94,000 Active Option Contract 47 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $94,000 Active Option Contract 46 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    statusdays on market $94,000 Active Option Contract 45 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $94,000 Active 42 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $94,000 Active 41 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $94,000 Active 40 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $94,000 Active 39 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $94,000 Active 38 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $94,000 Active 37 DOM
19. 2026-05-13
    price $94,000 1044-char remark
20. 2026-04-23
    listed $100,000 Active 1044-char remark
21. 2024-04-12
    historical
22. 2024-03-13
    price $164,900
23. 2024-03-13
    price $164,900
24. 2024-01-22
    price $175,000
25. 2024-01-20
    price $175,000
26. 2023-11-14
    listed $199,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,520 · $293/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,520 · $293/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,431
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,265
• − Property taxes: −$3,520
• − Insurance: −$470
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,154
• − Management: −$1,154
• − Depreciation: −$2,735
• Taxable income: $132
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$32
• After-tax cash flow: $1,464/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Henrietta ISD
• NCES district ID: 4822980
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $49,029
• Composite: 40.62/100
• National rank: #3691
• State rank: #219 of 826 in TX

Livability — Henrietta

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #379
• US rank: #7978

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Henrietta, TX
• Population (ZIP): 4,668

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 9,537 people
• By 2030: 9,042 · -5.2%
• By 2040: 8,090 · -15.2%
• By 2050: 7,255 · -23.9%
• By 2075: 5,834 · -38.8%
• By 2100: 4,491 · -52.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 6% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+79.7) · D 9.9% · R 89.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.1pp toward R · 2008: -58.6pp · 2024: -79.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+79.7 2020: R+77.6 2016: R+76.6 2012: R+69.7 2008: R+58.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -35.62%
• Current HPI: 158.1207
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-52.8% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-06-05 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $94,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-23 Listed $100,000 NTREIS
• 2024-04-12 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2024-03-13 Price Changed $164,900 WFAOR
• 2024-03-13 Price Changed $164,900 NTREIS
• 2024-01-22 Price Changed $175,000 WFAOR
• 2024-01-20 Price Changed $175,000 NTREIS
• 2023-11-14 Listed $199,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,520 · -2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.