511 N Clay St · Henrietta, TX 76365

$75,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 107 Days on market

Built 1969 Fair condition 0.27 ac lot $52/sqft · 46% below area ↓ 53% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.8/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +9.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Some houses just need someone who sees past the surface. 511 N Clay St sits on a generous lot in Henrietta, Texas - the county seat of Clay County and the kind of town where your dollar still means something. At 1,440 square feet, this 1969-built single-family home has good bones and room to grow into whatever you need it to be. It's not a showroom. It needs some attention, some elbow grease, and probably a weekend or six.

Key facts

• Generous lot
• 0.27 acre lot
• Built 1969

Tags

• GENEROUS LOT
• LAKE ARROWHEAD STATE PARK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $75k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $229 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $68k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 3.5% in Henrietta — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#379 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Henrietta ISD (rural): math 47% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #219 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Henrietta El (math 47% / reading 47%, grade D-, #1,006 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 481 students, 53% FRL); Henrietta Middle (math 50% / reading 43%, grade D+, #443 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 226 students, 48% FRL); Henrietta H S (math 37% / reading 72%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 287 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: 95 active listings in the ZIP; 13 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clay County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 107 days — a 9% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.7% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $68,250 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 107 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.60% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.11%
• DSCR: 1.58
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $172,130
• List price: $75,000
• Delta: -56.43%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
916 N Bridge St	0.24mi	3/1.0	1,280 (-11%)	10mo	$75,000	$59	58
407 S Clay	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,292 (-10%)	8mo	$240,000	$186	54
516 E Crafton St	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,232 (-14%)	16mo	$169,000	$137	51
316 N Carroll St	0.58mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,480 (+3%)	16mo	$62,000	$42	46
1110 E Ikard St	0.73mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,480 (+3%)	16mo	$145,000	$98	43
402 S Red Riv	0.65mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,266 (-12%)	3mo	$135,000	$107	38
1005 E Wichita St	0.61mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,328 (-8%)	17mo	$155,000	$117	37
1102 E Ikard St	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,224 (-15%)	15mo	$75,000	$61	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $2,595
• Equity at exit: $11,183

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.03×
• Total profit: $21,640
• Equity at exit: $6,485

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 17 active · 1 under contract
• Months of supply: 25.5 mo (4%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $139,000 ($97/sqft)
• Median days on market: 77 d
• This list price: 12% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +23.7% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76365

• Home prices YoY: -18.4%
• Active inventory: 95
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,199 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$293 /mo · $3,520/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$252
• Net cashflow: $229

Break-even live

Break-even rent $909

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $481	-5% $251	+0% $229	+5% $208	+10% $187
Rent	-10% $135	-5% $182	+0% $229	+5% $277	+10% $324
Rate	-1.0pp $267	-0.5pp $248	base $229	+0.5pp $210	+1.0pp $190

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property is for sale (MLS status: Active)
• Financial info: Loan type listed as Treat As ClearNo second mortgage indicated
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway (no covered spaces, no garage, no carport)
• Utilities: Utilities: OtherNot in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Single family residenceResidential propertyNot attached to other units
• Construction: Built in 1969
• Exterior features: Lot under 0.5 acre (approx. 0.266 acres)Subdivision: Town HenriettaUse GPS for directions

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on level 1 (approx. 13 x 12)Bedroom on level 1 (approx. 13 x 10)Bedroom on level 2 (approx. 12 x 10)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Interior features: Six total roomsTwo levelsFireplace in the living roomOther interior features
• Laundry & utility: No smart-home features listed

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $75,000 Active 107 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $75,000 Active 106 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $75,000 Active 105 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $75,000 Active 104 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $75,000 Active 103 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $75,000 Active 102 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $75,000 Active 99 DOM
8. 2026-07-29
   pricedays on market $75,000 Active 97 DOM
9. 2026-07-27
   days on market $50,000 Active 95 DOM
10. 2026-07-25
    days on market $50,000 Active 93 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $50,000 Active 91 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $50,000 Active 90 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $50,000 Active 89 DOM
14. 2026-07-18
    days on market $50,000 Active 86 DOM
15. 2026-07-16
    days on market $50,000 Active 84 DOM
16. 2026-07-16
    days on market $50,000 Active 83 DOM
17. 2026-07-14
    days on market $50,000 Active 82 DOM
18. 2026-07-13
    days on market $50,000 Active 81 DOM
19. 2026-07-12
    days on market $50,000 Active 80 DOM
20. 2026-07-11
    pricedays on market $50,000 Active 79 DOM
21. 2026-07-10
    days on market $86,000 Active 78 DOM
22. 2026-07-09
    days on market $86,000 Active 77 DOM
23. 2026-07-08
    days on market $86,000 Active 76 DOM
24. 2026-07-07
    days on market $86,000 Active 75 DOM
25. 2026-07-06
    days on market $86,000 Active 74 DOM
26. 2026-07-05
    days on market $86,000 Active 73 DOM
27. 2026-07-04
    days on market $86,000 Active 72 DOM
28. 2026-07-03
    days on market $86,000 Active 71 DOM
29. 2026-07-02
    days on market $86,000 Active 70 DOM
30. 2026-07-01
    days on market $86,000 Active 69 DOM
31. 2026-06-30
    days on market $86,000 Active 68 DOM
32. 2026-06-29
    days on market $86,000 Active 67 DOM
33. 2026-06-28
    price $86,000 Active 66 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $94,000 Active 66 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $94,000 Active 65 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $94,000 Active 64 DOM
37. 2026-06-26
    days on market $94,000 Active 63 DOM
38. 2026-06-23
    days on market $94,000 Active 60 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $94,000 Active 59 DOM
40. 2026-06-19
    days on market $94,000 Active 57 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $94,000 Active 56 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $94,000 Active 55 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $94,000 Active 54 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    status $94,000 Active 53 DOM
45. 2026-06-15
    days on market $94,000 Active Option Contract 53 DOM
46. 2026-06-14
    days on market $94,000 Active Option Contract 51 DOM
47. 2026-06-13
    days on market $94,000 Active Option Contract 50 DOM
48. 2026-06-10
    days on market $94,000 Active Option Contract 48 DOM
49. 2026-06-09
    days on market $94,000 Active Option Contract 47 DOM
50. 2026-06-08
    days on market $94,000 Active Option Contract 46 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,520 · $293/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,520 · $293/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,388
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$3,520
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,151
• − Management: −$1,151
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $1,808
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$434
• After-tax cash flow: $2,318/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab Est. rehab $36,000–$64,800 screening

This 1969-built single-family home in Henrietta, Texas, requires moderate renovations to address a poor roof and exterior condition. Repairs and maintenance will significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Deferred maintenance Est. $70,000–$210,000 screening

• Major Roof (roof|hvac|water heater|windows|electrical|plumbing|exterior|other) — No roof visible
• Major Hvac (roof|hvac|water heater|windows|electrical|plumbing|exterior|other) — No HVAC visible
• Major Windows (roof|hvac|water heater|windows|electrical|plumbing|exterior|other) — No windows visible
• Major Electrical (roof|hvac|water heater|windows|electrical|plumbing|exterior|other) — No electrical panel visible
• Major Plumbing (roof|hvac|water heater|windows|electrical|plumbing|exterior|other) — No plumbing visible
• Major Exterior (roof|hvac|water heater|windows|electrical|plumbing|exterior|other) — No exterior visible
• Major Other (roof|hvac|water heater|windows|electrical|plumbing|exterior|other) — No other visible

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — The roof appears to be in poor condition, with visible wear and tear.
• Moderate exterior siding — The exterior siding and paint appear to be in fair condition, with some discoloration and wear visible.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale repair roof — A repaired roof will significantly increase the home's resale value by addressing a major issue. ↑
• Resale paint exterior — Painting the exterior will improve the home's curb appeal and increase its resale value. ↑
• Both landscape and maintain yard — A well-maintained yard and landscaping will increase both the resale and rental value of the property. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 49/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Henrietta El D- TX #1,006/4,322 Nat'l #14,504/41,679 Middle Henrietta Middle D+ TX #443/1,662 Nat'l #4,335/14,009 High Henrietta H S C- TX #379/1,632 Nat'l #4,461/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Henrietta ISD
• NCES district ID: 4822980
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $49,029
• Composite: 40.62/100
• National rank: #3691
• State rank: #219 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 70/100

Livability — Henrietta

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #379
• US rank: #7978

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Henrietta, TX
• County: Clay · 9,537 people
• Metro: Wichita Falls, TX
• Population (ZIP): 4,668
• Household income: $64,307
• Rent vs Own: 24.7% rent · 75.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 23% of renters

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Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 9,537 people
• By 2030: 9,042 · -5.2%
• By 2040: 8,090 · -15.2%
• By 2050: 7,255 · -23.9%
• By 2075: 5,834 · -38.8%
• By 2100: 4,491 · -52.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 6% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 4%

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Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+79.7) · D 9.9% · R 89.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.1pp toward R · 2008: -58.6pp · 2024: -79.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+79.7 2020: R+77.6 2016: R+76.6 2012: R+69.7 2008: R+58.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -35.62%
• Current HPI: 158.1207
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property is for sale (MLS status: Active)
• Financial info: Loan type listed as Treat As ClearNo second mortgage indicated
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway (no covered spaces, no garage, no carport)
• Utilities: Utilities: OtherNot in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Single family residenceResidential propertyNot attached to other units
• Construction: Built in 1969
• Exterior features: Lot under 0.5 acre (approx. 0.266 acres)Subdivision: Town HenriettaUse GPS for directions

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on level 1 (approx. 13 x 12)Bedroom on level 1 (approx. 13 x 10)Bedroom on level 2 (approx. 12 x 10)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Interior features: Six total roomsTwo levelsFireplace in the living roomOther interior features
• Laundry & utility: No smart-home features listed

Price history

-52.8% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-06-05 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $94,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-23 Listed $100,000 NTREIS
• 2024-04-12 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2024-03-13 Price Changed $164,900 WFAOR
• 2024-03-13 Price Changed $164,900 NTREIS
• 2024-01-22 Price Changed $175,000 WFAOR
• 2024-01-20 Price Changed $175,000 NTREIS
• 2023-11-14 Listed $199,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,520 · -2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.