820 Michigan Ave · Bay City, MI 48708

$35,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 796 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1930 ↓ 52% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Completely remodeled and maintained immaculately. Oak kitchen w/ built-in appliances and pull-out drawers in pantry, pergo floors, oak bath, newer front load washer/dryer, French doors, loads of storage, newer roof furnace and C/A, redwood stained deck and fenced backyard, 8 x 10 shed.

Key facts

• Garage
• Built 1930
• Listed 2 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (1.5 parking spaces)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sanitary sewer; Natural gas heat/fuel; Gas water heater; Electric power for A/C and fans
• Home design: Residential property; One-story structure; Built in 1930
• Construction: Crawl foundation
• Exterior features: Vinyl siding; City limits location; Sidewalks; Main street frontage; Road frontage (50'); Curbed, paved street

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first floor (15 x 10); Vinyl flooring in kitchen; Dining area (8 x 6) with vinyl flooring
• Bedrooms: Bedroom 1 on the first floor (15 x 10) with carpet; Bedroom 2 on the first floor (11 x 10) with carpet
• Flooring: Carpet in bedrooms and living room; Vinyl in kitchen and dining room
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the first floor
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Living room (16 x 14)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $35k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $482 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($956 rent vs $35k).
• Cap rate 22.8% vs local median 6.5% in Bay City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#360 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities D, crime F.
• Bay City School District (urban): math 27% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #317 of 540 in MI (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 150 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 39 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $242 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $35,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.73% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 58.99%
• DSCR: 3.62
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $88,356
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
820 Michigan Ave	0.00mi	2/1.0	864 (+8%)	0mo	$42,500	$49	86
800 Franklin St	0.64mi	2/1.0	800 (+0%)	1mo	$63,000	$79	69
908 Mccormick St	0.54mi	2/1.0	816 (+2%)	4mo	$122,000	$150	67
1608 Wilson St	0.67mi	2/1.0	798 (+0%)	3mo	$118,500	$148	66
801 Wilson St	0.46mi	2/1.0	853 (+7%)	1mo	$114,900	$135	66
1805 Fremont Ave	0.35mi	3/1.0 (+1)	874 (+10%)	2mo	$117,500	$134	60
807 Fraser St	0.64mi	2/1.0	828 (+4%)	4mo	$42,500	$51	60
923 Fraser St	0.54mi	2/1.0	720 (-10%)	2mo	$62,000	$86	58
810 Fitzhugh St	0.63mi	2/1.0	747 (-6%)	3mo	$30,000	$40	58
1905 Galke Ct	0.61mi	3/1.5 (+1)	864 (+8%)	2mo	$115,000	$133	49
820 Fitzhugh St	0.60mi	1/1.0 (-1)	704 (-12%)	6mo	$37,650	$53	43
714 S Madison St	0.66mi	3/1.0 (+1)	900 (+13%)	7mo	$100,000	$111	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 57.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.56×
• Total profit: $25,048
• Equity at exit: $5,219

10-year hold

• IRR: 62.5%
• Equity multiple: 7.27×
• Total profit: $61,461
• Equity at exit: $3,026

Cash invested: $9,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48708

• Home prices YoY: -30.9%
• Active inventory: 150
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $956 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$184
• Tax from tax record: −$75 /mo · $905/yr
• Insurance: −$15
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$201
• Net cashflow: $482

Break-even live

Break-even rent $346

Max offer price $35,000

Occupancy floor 45%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $502	-5% $492	+0% $482	+5% $472	+10% $462
Rent	-10% $406	-5% $444	+0% $482	+5% $520	+10% $557
Rate	-1.0pp $499	-0.5pp $491	base $482	+0.5pp $473	+1.0pp $463

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,750
• Closing costs: $1,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
403 Polk St Bay City, MI	2.0	1.0	748	$1,000	$1.34	45d	1	0.65mi
600 18th St Bay City, MI	2.0	1.0	1000	$950	$0.95	45d	1	0.69mi
800 McKinley St Bay City, MI	2.0	1.0	796	$925	$1.16	45d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-10
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-08
   listed $35,000 Active
3. 2012-10-09
   soldstatus $54,000
4. 2012-10-08
   soldstatus $54,000 286-char remark

   Show marketing remark (286 chars)

   Completely remodeled and maintained immaculately. Oak kitchen w/ built-in appliances and pull-out drawers in pantry, pergo floors, oak bath, newer front load washer/dryer, French doors, loads of storage, newer roof furnace and C/A, redwood stained deck and fenced backyard, 8 x 10 shed.

5. 2012-03-27
   listed $59,900 286-char remark

   Show marketing remark (286 chars)

   Completely remodeled and maintained immaculately. Oak kitchen w/ built-in appliances and pull-out drawers in pantry, pergo floors, oak bath, newer front load washer/dryer, French doors, loads of storage, newer roof furnace and C/A, redwood stained deck and fenced backyard, 8 x 10 shed.

6. 2003-04-23
   soldstatus $73,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $905 · $75/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $905 · $75/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,473
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,961
• − Property taxes: −$905
• − Insurance: −$175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$918
• − Management: −$918
• − Depreciation: −$1,018
• Taxable income: $5,579
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,339
• After-tax cash flow: $4,443/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay City School District
• NCES district ID: 2604260
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,833
• Composite: 28.47/100
• National rank: #6743
• State rank: #317 of 540 in MI

Livability — Bay City

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #360
• US rank: #8912

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bay City, MI
• County: Bay County · 36,975 people
• City population: 25,635
• Metro: Bay City, MI
• Population (ZIP): 25,635
• Household income: $50,518
• Rent vs Own: 29.9% rent · 70.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 528.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 101,476 people
• By 2030: 98,152 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 89,711 · -11.6%
• By 2050: 80,614 · -20.6%
• By 2075: 60,544 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 41,603 · -59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 17% Lithuanian 7% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: R (+14.7) · D 42.0% · R 56.7% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.0pp toward R · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: -14.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.7 2020: R+11.6 2016: R+12.6 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -82.21%
• Current HPI: 183.5774
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Bay City, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-52.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-10 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-08 Listed $35,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2012-10-09 Sold (Public Records) $54,000 Public Records
• 2012-10-08 Sold (MLS) $54,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2012-03-27 Listed $59,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2003-04-23 Sold (Public Records) $73,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $905 · -15.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.