11061 Hickory Ln #143 · Vienna, MI 48420

$38,700

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,064 sqft · Manufactured · 113 Days on market

Built 2026 Fair condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* THIS IS A RESALE LISTING * You'll love living in this 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home within a wonderful family-friendly community. Check out the awesome amenities your community has to offer such as a horseshoe court, a fitness center, a playground, and more! This home won't be on the market long, so call us today for more information or to schedule a tour. Deposits & Fees are subject to change.

Key facts

• Fitness center
• Horseshoe court
• Playground

Tags

• HORSESHOE COURT
• FITNESS CENTER
• PLAYGROUND

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $39k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $644 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $39k).
• Recommended offer: $35k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Clio Area School District (suburban): math 27% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #269 of 540 in MI (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 148 active listings in the ZIP; 419 units permitted in Genesee County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $268 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Genesee County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 113 days — a 9% lower offer ($35k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $35,217 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 113 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.98% ✓
• Cap rate: 26.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 71.34%
• DSCR: 4.17
• GRM: 2.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 71.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.21×
• Total profit: $34,775
• Equity at exit: $5,770

10-year hold

• IRR: 74.9%
• Equity multiple: 8.68×
• Total profit: $83,183
• Equity at exit: $3,346

Cash invested: $10,836 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48420

• Active inventory: 148
• Price-to-rent: 2.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,154 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$203
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$48 /mo · $580/yr
• Insurance: −$16
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$242
• Net cashflow: $644

Break-even live

Break-even rent $339

Max offer price $38,700

Occupancy floor 39%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $671	-5% $658	+0% $644	+5% $631	+10% $617
Rent	-10% $553	-5% $599	+0% $644	+5% $690	+10% $735
Rate	-1.0pp $664	-0.5pp $654	base $644	+0.5pp $634	+1.0pp $624

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,675
• Closing costs: $1,161
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $38,700 Active 113 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $38,700 Active 112 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $38,700 Active 111 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $38,700 Active 110 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $38,700 Active 108 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $38,700 Active 107 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $38,700 Active 105 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $38,700 Active 104 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $38,700 Active 103 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $38,700 Active 102 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $38,700 Active 98 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $38,700 Active 97 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    pricedays on market $38,700 Active 96 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $38,200 Active 95 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $38,200 Active 94 DOM
16. 2026-02-25
    listed $38,200 Active 405-char remark

    Show marketing remark (405 chars)

    * THIS IS A RESALE LISTING * You'll love living in this 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home within a wonderful family-friendly community. Check out the awesome amenities your community has to offer such as a horseshoe court, a fitness center, a playground, and more! This home won't be on the market long, so call us today for more information or to schedule a tour. Deposits & Fees are subject to change.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,848
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,168
• − Property taxes: −$580
• − Insurance: −$194
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,108
• − Management: −$1,108
• − Depreciation: −$1,126
• Taxable income: $7,564
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,815
• After-tax cash flow: $5,915/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Fair 45/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home has average exterior conditions that can be improved with cosmetic repairs and maintenance, increasing its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Paint — Paint is faded and needs repainting
• Major Siding — Siding appears weathered and needs repainting

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint and siding repair — Repainting and repairing siding will improve curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping — Landscaping will enhance curb appeal and attract potential buyers

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Paint · Paint is faded and needs repainting	Major	$15,000–50,000
Siding · Siding appears weathered and needs repainting	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$30,000–100,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint and siding repair — Repainting and repairing siding will improve curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping — Landscaping will enhance curb appeal and attract potential buyers ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clio Area School District
• NCES district ID: 2610110
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $51,368
• Composite: 30.83/100
• National rank: #6134
• State rank: #269 of 540 in MI

Livability — Vienna

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 21,213

Population outlook (Genesee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 381,312 people
• By 2030: 362,731 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 321,550 · -15.7%
• By 2050: 279,212 · -26.8%
• By 2075: 193,336 · -49.3%
• By 2100: 128,118 · -66.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3% Black 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Lithuanian 5% Italian 4%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Genesee

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 51.4% · R 47.2% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.3pp toward R · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+4.2 2020: D+9.3 2016: D+9.5 2012: D+28.2 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -192.27%
• Current HPI: 186.7816
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-25 Listed $38,200 Zillow