3135 W Molly Ln · Phoenix, AZ 85083

$625,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,985 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 2001 6,325 sqft lot Est $642k · at est. $55/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.7/15.0
• Cash flow +6.5/30.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.8/10.0
• 1% rule +0.5/10.0

Listing remarks

Exquisite single family home featured in the highly desirable community of Arizona Hillcrest in north Phoenix, AZ. This home incorporates a subtle balance of contemporary finishes with a traditional design. Moreover, this home offers an open concept floor plan, an upgraded kitchen featuring raised panel cabinetry, granite counter tops, well maintained appliances, spacious (eat-in) center island. Additional home details will also include 9ft+ ceilings, dedicated dining space, both formal & informal living spaces, wood floors, an upstairs living area, and multiple windows offering great natural light throughout the home. The master retreat boasts spacious sleeping quarters, crown moldin

Key facts

• 6,325 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $625k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $437k (30.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $345k (44.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $345k (44.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Deer Valley Unified District (4246) (urban): math 50% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #33 of 249 in AZ (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Stetson Hills School (math 69% / reading 67%, grade B+, #65 of 1,109 statewide, top 6%, 912 students, 14% FRL); Sandra Day O'Connor High School (math 43% / reading 48%, grade D-, #58 of 381 statewide, top 15%, 2,567 students, 13% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 123 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 46% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $67k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $62k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$107k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $230k; list at $625k implies a 172% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $345,466 (44.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.55% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.29%
• DSCR: 0.68
• GRM: 15.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $641,775
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3219 W Molly Ln	0.07mi	5/3.5 (+1)	3,094 (+4%)	0mo	$626,000	$202	83
3144 W Maya Way	0.08mi	4/2.5	2,874 (-4%)	8mo	$535,000	$186	81
3215 W Molly Ln	0.06mi	4/2.5	2,864 (-4%)	15mo	$570,000	$199	76
3115 W Molly Ln	0.05mi	5/2.5 (+1)	3,084 (+3%)	12mo	$600,000	$195	75
3122 W Molly Ln	0.04mi	4/2.5	2,660 (-11%)	6mo	$527,500	$198	73
27227 N 31st Dr	0.31mi	4/2.0	2,958 (-1%)	14mo	$649,000	$219	69
27041 N 31st Dr	0.24mi	4/2.0	2,859 (-4%)	16mo	$615,000	$215	65
26812 N 32nd Ln	0.13mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,724 (-9%)	22mo	$715,000	$262	52
3523 W Buckhorn Trl	0.57mi	4/3.0	2,692 (-10%)	8mo	$654,735	$243	51
3614 W Alyssa Ln	0.58mi	4/3.5	2,744 (-8%)	13mo	$589,500	$215	47
3514 W Riordan Ranch Rd	0.47mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,780 (-7%)	19mo	$649,000	$233	46
3503 W Buckhorn Trl	0.51mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,681 (-10%)	23mo	$834,000	$311	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 2.29% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.54×
• Total profit: $269,923
• Equity at exit: $563,050

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.82×
• Total profit: $842,784
• Equity at exit: $1,214,238

Cash invested: $175,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85083

• Home prices YoY: 5.4%
• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 123
• Price-to-rent: 15.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,455 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,278
• Tax from tax record: −$200 /mo · $2,399/yr
• Insurance: −$260
• HOA: −$55
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$725
• Net cashflow: $-1,064

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,801

Max offer price $437,096

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-710	-5% $-887	+0% $-1,064	+5% $-1,241	+10% $-1,417
Rent	-10% $-1,337	-5% $-1,200	+0% $-1,064	+5% $-927	+10% $-791
Rate	-1.0pp $-749	-0.5pp $-905	base $-1,064	+0.5pp $-1,226	+1.0pp $-1,390

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $156,250
• Closing costs: $18,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2510 W Big Oak St Unit 66 Phoenix, AZ	4.0	3.0	2232	$6,500	$2.91	45d	1	0.88mi
2448 W Maximo Way Phoenix, AZ	3.0	3.5	2455	$2,900	$1.18	25d	1	0.90mi
2443 W Maximo Way Phoenix, AZ	3.0	3.5	2455	$2,900	$1.18	25d	1	0.92mi
2443 W Maximo Way Phoenix, AZ	3.0	3.5	2455	$2,900	$1.18	0d	1	0.92mi
26411 N 24th Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	3.5	2455	$3,200	$1.30	0d	1	0.98mi
2531 W White Feather Ln Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.5	1982	$2,445	$1.23	45d	1	1.05mi
2314 W Spur Dr Phoenix, AZ	5.0	4.0	2762	$2,750	$1.00	6d	1	1.05mi
2310 W Spur Dr Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.0	2297	$4,000	$1.74	4d	1	1.06mi
2518 W White Feather Ln Phoenix, AZ	4.0	3.0	2206	$2,425	$1.10	45d	1	1.09mi
26021 N 23rd Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1992	$2,795	$1.40	4d	1	1.13mi
28231 N 25th Dl Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	2236	$2,500	$1.12	45d	1	1.16mi
25920 N 22nd Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1967	$2,795	$1.42	25d	1	1.17mi
2319 W Running Deer Trl Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.5	2192	$2,320	$1.06	5d	1	1.23mi
2205 W Gambit Trl Phoenix, AZ	4.0	3.0	3128	$5,000	$1.60	45d	1	1.26mi
26803 N 21st Dr Phoenix, AZ	5.0	2.5	2783	$2,650	$0.95	0d	1	1.29mi
24833 N 37th Ln Glendale, AZ	3.0	2.5	2593	$3,500	$1.35	25d	1	1.31mi
3173 W Peak View Rd Phoenix, AZ	4.0	3.0	2649	$5,000	$1.89	6d	1	1.33mi
3726 W Villa Linda Dr Glendale, AZ	4.0	3.0	2285	$3,800	$1.66	45d	1	1.33mi
26041 N Fernbush Dr Phoenix, AZ	4.0	3.0	2901	$3,599	$1.24	45d	1	1.35mi
3119 W Via Dona Rd Phoenix, AZ	5.0	3.0	1946	$2,950	$1.52	0d	1	1.38mi
2008 W Maya Way Phoenix, AZ	5.0	3.0	2872	$2,999	$1.04	45d	1	1.43mi
1966 W Hide Trl Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	2054	$2,950	$1.44	45d	1	1.44mi
25718 N 20th Ave Phoenix, AZ	4.0	3.0	2983	$2,995	$1.00	45d	1	1.46mi
3853 W Fallen Leaf Ln Glendale, AZ	4.0	2.5	2593	$6,000	$2.31	45d	1	1.47mi
1941 W Holden Dr Phoenix, AZ	4.0	3.0	2618	$3,100	$1.18	25d	1	1.48mi
1928 W Spur Dr Phoenix, AZ	4.0	3.0	2872	$4,250	$1.48	45d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $55 · $660/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-04-14
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-13
   status Active
3. 2026-04-07
   status Pending
4. 2026-03-26
   listed $625,000 Active
5. 2025-09-15
   historical
6. 2025-08-16
   price $590,000
7. 2025-06-17
   price $594,000
8. 2025-05-10
   price $599,000
9. 2025-04-07
   price $599,999
10. 2025-03-20
    listed $618,999 Active
11. 2025-02-28
    historical
12. 2024-09-11
    price $624,000
13. 2024-08-07
    listed $630,000 Active
14. 2010-06-29
    soldstatus $229,900
15. 2010-05-14
    soldstatus $212,000 Closed
16. 2010-04-01
    status Pending
17. 2010-03-26
    listed $229,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,399 · $200/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,125 · $344/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,726/yr (+$144/mo · 72.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥111°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,456
• − Mortgage interest: −$35,010
• − Property taxes: −$2,399
• − Insurance: −$3,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,316
• − Management: −$3,316
• − HOA: −$660
• − Depreciation: −$18,182
• Taxable loss: −$24,552
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,893
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,872/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Deer Valley Unified District (4246)
• NCES district ID: 0407750
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $72,516
• Composite: 47.0/100
• National rank: #2346
• State rank: #33 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3924

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 1,500,198
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 21,022
• Household income: $149,087
• Rent vs Own: 10.5% rent · 89.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 81.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Asian 10% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 6% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 2% Scandinavian 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Other Indo-European 7% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 14.78%
• Current HPI: 289.2128
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.29%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+171.9% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-04-13 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2026-04-07 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-03-26 Listed $625,000 ARMLS
• 2025-09-15 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-08-16 Price Changed $590,000 ARMLS
• 2025-06-17 Price Changed $594,000 ARMLS
• 2025-05-10 Price Changed $599,000 ARMLS
• 2025-04-07 Price Changed $599,999 ARMLS
• 2025-03-20 Listed $618,999 ARMLS
• 2025-02-28 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2024-09-11 Price Changed $624,000 ARMLS
• 2024-08-07 Listed $630,000 ARMLS
• 2010-06-29 Sold (Public Records) $229,900 Public Records
• 2010-05-14 Sold (MLS) $212,000 ARMLS
• 2010-04-01 Pending — ARMLS
• 2010-03-26 Listed $229,900 ARMLS

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,399 · +1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.