3551 12th Ave SE · St. Cloud, MN 56304

$280,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 19 Days on market

Built 1986 0.65 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming 4-bedroom, 2-bath story-and-a-half home situated on a peaceful 0.65-acre lot. The main level offers a spacious kitchen, dining area, living room, full bath, one bedroom, and convenient main-floor laundry. The upper level features two additional bedrooms and a ¾ bath, while the lower level includes a bedroom, family room, and mechanicals. A 24’ x 32’ detached two-stall garage provides ample space for vehicles, storage, or hobbies. The home is serviced by natural gas and features durable steel siding. Recent updates include a furnace and central A/C (6 years ago) and a water heater (5 years ago). The septic system has been certified. Enjoy the expansive yard with m

Key facts

• 0.65 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1986

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Asphalt driveway; 2-car garage (approximately 23.5 x 31.5)
• Utilities: Well water; Septic system compliant; Natural gas
• Home design: Residential property; One and one-half story; Above-grade finished area 1,456 (living area split across levels); Below-grade finished area present
• Construction: Block foundation; Basement present (finished); Foundation area 728
• Exterior features: Patio; Lot approximately 0.65 acres; Lot dimensions: 106 x 277 x 105 x 262

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms total; Main-floor bedroom; Two upper-level bedrooms; Lower-level bedroom
• Bathrooms: Main-floor full bathroom; Upper-level 3/4 bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Finished basement with block construction; Water softener (owned)
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-136 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $256k (8.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (27.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $204k (27.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.9% in St. Cloud — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Cloud Public School District (urban): math 27% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #264 of 301 in MN (top 88%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.8%/yr); 116 active listings in the ZIP; 334 units permitted in Sherburne County in 2024 (58 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($276k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $203,892 (27.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.09%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.79% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-52,503
• Equity at exit: $41,749

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-50,427
• Equity at exit: $24,209

Cash invested: $78,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 56304

• Home prices YoY: -21.4%
• Rents YoY: 3.8%
• Active inventory: 116
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,039 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$162 /mo · $1,944/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$428
• Net cashflow: $-136

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,211

Max offer price $255,927

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,000
• Closing costs: $8,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-11
   listed $280,000 Active 840-char remark
2. 2026-05-09
   historical $280,000 840-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,944 · $162/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,540 · $212/mo
• Expected delta: +$596/yr (+$50/mo · 30.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,467
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,684
• − Property taxes: −$1,944
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,957
• − Management: −$1,957
• − Depreciation: −$8,145
• Taxable loss: −$6,621
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,589
• After-tax cash flow: $-46/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Cloud Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2733510
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $46,638
• Composite: 27.91/100
• National rank: #6866
• State rank: #264 of 301 in MN

Livability — St. Cloud

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Sherburne County · 120,363 people
• City population: 60,914
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 17,473
• Household income: $58,148
• Rent vs Own: 58.6% rent · 41.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1175.0

Population outlook (Sherburne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 97,402 people
• By 2030: 99,341 · +2.0%
• By 2040: 101,188 · +3.9%
• By 2050: 99,214 · +1.9%
• By 2075: 88,700 · -8.9%
• By 2100: 72,241 · -25.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Black 17% Two or more races 9% Asian 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Native American 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Romanian 5% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Vietnam, Canada, China
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 3% Vietnamese 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sherburne

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+34.9) · D 31.7% · R 66.6% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.7pp toward R · 2008: -18.2pp · 2024: -34.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+34.9 2020: R+32.6 2016: R+37.0 2012: R+22.1 2008: R+18.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -60.11%
• Current HPI: 220.2539
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.79%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-30 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-20 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-11 Listed $280,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-09 Coming Soon $280,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,944 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.