109 Apple Tree St · Arlington, KY 42021

$145,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,364 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 113 Days on market

Built 1961 0.28 ac lot Est $110k · 32% over ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.6/30.0
• Appreciation +7.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

This well-maintained home blends original character with thoughtful updates. Featuring a remodeled kitchen and bathrooms, the property offers a fresh feel while still showcasing its original hardwood flooring for added charm. The home also includes new windows, new countertops, tile backsplash, and new gutters, adding both style and functionality. The spacious 20x14 living room provides comfortable gathering space, while the 14x12 kitchen and 12x14 dining/eat-in area offer plenty of room for everyday living. A working fireplace in the kitchen adds warmth and character to the heart of the home. Bedroom sizes include 15x12, 14x10, and a 10x10 bedroom/office, allowing flexibility for various n

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Working fireplace
• Remodeled kitchen

Tags

• REMODELED KITCHEN
• REMODELED BATHROOMS
• ORIGINAL HARDWOOD FLOORING
• WORKING FIREPLACE
• SEPARATE LAUNDRY ROOM
• COVERED PORCH

Property features AI

Finance

• Other:
• Financial info:
• HOA & community:

Exterior

• Parking: No designated or covered parking listed
• Security:
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Residential property
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Brick exterior; Crawl space foundation; Existing year built (details not specified)
• Exterior features: Porch (covered); Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven; Range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level); Bedroom sizes: 15x12, 14x10, 10x10
• Flooring: Wood flooring; Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility:

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $146k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $62 ($743/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $116k (20.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $116k (20.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#470 in KY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Carlisle County (rural): math 34% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #59 of 165 in KY (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Carlisle County Elementary School (math 42% / reading 42%, grade F, #178 of 676 statewide, top 29%, 409 students, 66% FRL); Carlisle County High School (math 24% / reading 34%, grade F, #127 of 254 statewide, top 58%, 204 students, 56% FRL).
• Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (4.8% local appreciation)).
• Carlisle County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 113 days — a 9% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $115,816 (20.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 113 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.82%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $110,484
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
97 4th St	0.15mi	3/1.0	1,456 (+7%)	1mo	$118,000	$81	81
158 Apple Tree St	0.07mi	3/1.0	1,192 (-13%)	3mo	$62,500	$52	73

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.85% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.89×
• Total profit: $36,164
• Equity at exit: $81,137

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.61×
• Total profit: $106,393
• Equity at exit: $138,956

Cash invested: $40,740 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42021

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 13
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,158 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$763
• Tax from tax record: −$29 /mo · $353/yr
• Insurance: −$61
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$243
• Net cashflow: $62

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,080

Max offer price $145,500

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $144	-5% $103	+0% $62	+5% $21	+10% $-20
Rent	-10% $-30	-5% $16	+0% $62	+5% $108	+10% $153
Rate	-1.0pp $135	-0.5pp $99	base $62	+0.5pp $24	+1.0pp $-14

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,375
• Closing costs: $4,365
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $145,500 Active 113 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $145,500 Active 112 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $145,500 Active 111 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $145,500 Active 110 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $145,500 Active 109 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $145,500 Active 107 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $145,500 Active 106 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $145,500 Active 103 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $145,500 Active 102 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $145,500 Active 101 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $145,500 Active 98 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $145,500 Active 97 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $145,500 Active 96 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $145,500 Active 95 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $145,500 Active 94 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $145,500 Active 93 DOM
17. 2026-04-03
    price $145,500
18. 2026-02-26
    listed $148,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $353 · $29/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,251 · $104/mo
• Expected delta: +$898/yr (+$75/mo · 254.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,898
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,150
• − Property taxes: −$353
• − Insurance: −$728
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,112
• − Management: −$1,112
• − Depreciation: −$4,233
• Taxable loss: −$1,789
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$429
• After-tax cash flow: $1,172/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carlisle County
• NCES district ID: 2100960
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $37,978
• Composite: 30.43/100
• National rank: #6236
• State rank: #59 of 165 in KY

Livability — Arlington

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #470
• US rank: #23430

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Arlington, KY
• Population (ZIP): 1,190

Population outlook (Carlisle County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,537 people
• By 2030: 4,341 · -4.3%
• By 2040: 4,003 · -11.8%
• By 2050: 3,736 · -17.7%
• By 2075: 3,405 · -25.0%
• By 2100: 3,264 · -28.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 2% Pacific Islander 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Carlisle

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.0) · D 15.6% · R 83.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.6pp toward R · 2008: -31.3pp · 2024: -68.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.0 2020: R+64.3 2016: R+64.0 2012: R+41.4 2008: R+31.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.85%
• Current HPI: 200.7522
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

-1.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $145,500 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-26 Listed $148,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $353 · -0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.