560 S Navarro St · Giddings, TX 78942

$55,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1955 8,624 sqft lot Est $85k · 35% under ↓ 44% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This is an excellent lot for new construction, competitively priced to sell. The seller is highly motivated.

Key facts

• 8,624 sq ft lot
• Built 1955
• Listed 20 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $55k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $318 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($970 rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $54k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.2% vs local median 3.4% in Giddings — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#751 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Giddings ISD (rural): math 45% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #270 of 826 in TX (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 92 active listings in the ZIP; 18 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($54k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price; built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 91% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $54,175 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.76% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.81%
• DSCR: 2.10
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $84,672
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
207 S Waco St	0.26mi	1/1.0	706 (+5%)	3mo	$89,000	$126	77

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.74×
• Total profit: $11,426
• Equity at exit: $8,201

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.36×
• Total profit: $36,295
• Equity at exit: $4,755

Cash invested: $15,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78942

• Home prices YoY: -17.2%
• Active inventory: 92
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $970 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax from tax record: −$136 /mo · $1,637/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$204
• Net cashflow: $318

Break-even live

Break-even rent $567

Max offer price $55,000

Occupancy floor 62%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $350	-5% $334	+0% $318	+5% $303	+10% $287
Rent	-10% $242	-5% $280	+0% $318	+5% $357	+10% $395
Rate	-1.0pp $346	-0.5pp $332	base $318	+0.5pp $304	+1.0pp $290

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,750
• Closing costs: $1,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2025-09-04
   status Pending
2. 2025-08-21
   price $55,000
3. 2025-08-17
   price $70,000
4. 2025-08-15
   listed $99,000 Active
5. 1990-04-09
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,637 · $136/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,637 · $136/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 91% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,639
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,081
• − Property taxes: −$1,637
• − Insurance: −$275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$931
• − Management: −$931
• − Depreciation: −$1,600
• Taxable income: $3,184
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$764
• After-tax cash flow: $3,057/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Giddings ISD
• NCES district ID: 4820640
• Math proficiency: 45% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,580
• Composite: 38.32/100
• National rank: #4226
• State rank: #270 of 826 in TX

Livability — Giddings

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #751
• US rank: #13837

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Giddings, TX
• Population (ZIP): 9,858

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,796 people
• By 2030: 18,082 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 18,377 · +3.3%
• By 2050: 17,950 · +0.9%
• By 2075: 16,005 · -10.1%
• By 2100: 13,413 · -24.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Hispanic / Latino 34% Black 12% Two or more races 10% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 32%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 26% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.4) · D 19.5% · R 79.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.2pp toward R · 2008: -36.3pp · 2024: -60.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.4 2020: R+55.7 2016: R+55.6 2012: R+46.3 2008: R+36.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -42.66%
• Current HPI: 205.1633
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-44.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-04 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2025-08-21 Price Changed $55,000 Unlock MLS
• 2025-08-17 Price Changed $70,000 Unlock MLS
• 2025-08-15 Listed $99,000 Unlock MLS
• 1990-04-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+9.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,637 · +7.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.