205 W Bell Rd #137 · Phoenix, AZ 85023

$29,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 688 sqft · Manufactured · 36 Days on market

Built 2006 Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Rent growth +1.7/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

ON LEASED LAND: This 2006 Cavco is a wonderful 1 bedroom 1 bath with a country porch to enjoy outdoors. Step inside this home to 9 foot flat ceilings making it feel so spacious. Enjoy the breakfast bar open to the front room and kitchen. Kitchen has all the appliances included. The bedroom is good with with stackable washer and dryer inside. Outside you will find a storage unit and 2 custom raised garden beds great for growing you own veggies. Home is located in a 55 plus age restricted GOLF community. Community has a 9 hole golf course, pool, spa, billiards, gym and more. Dont miss out on this one. Priced right to go fast!!

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Community pool
• Built 2006

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Tax year 2025
• HOA & community: Land lease (monthly); Land lease payment: $1,117 per month; Association covers grounds maintenance and street maintenance; Community amenities: pool, golf, heated community spa, community media room, coin-op laundry, biking/walking path, fitness center

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; 2 carport spaces
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured/Mobile home; Leasehold ownership; Asphalt road access
• Construction: Board & batten siding; Wood frame construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Shed(s); Gravel/stone front and back; Private maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Laminate counters; Non-laminate counters; Refrigerator; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: 1 possible bedroom
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: High-speed internet; Eat-in kitchen; Breakfast bar; 9+ foot flat ceilings; No interior steps; Storage
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $29k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $732 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $29k).
• Recommended offer: $28k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 36.6% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Glendale Union High School District (4285) (urban): math 23% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #130 of 249 in AZ (top 52%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.4%/yr); 138 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $200 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $870 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($28k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 5→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $28,130 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 36.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 108.22%
• DSCR: 5.82
• GRM: 2.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $4,816
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16619 N 1st Dr #108	0.12mi	2/1.0 (+1)	720 (+5%)	16mo	$5,000	$7	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 5.74×
• Total profit: $38,498
• Equity at exit: $4,324

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 10.89×
• Total profit: $80,280
• Equity at exit: $2,507

Cash invested: $8,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85023

• Rents YoY: -3.4%
• Active inventory: 138
• Price-to-rent: 2.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,181 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$152
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$36 /mo · $435/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$248
• Net cashflow: $732

Break-even live

Break-even rent $254

Max offer price $29,000

Occupancy floor 33%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,250
• Closing costs: $870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
110 W Bell Rd Unit 1 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	739	$1,299	$1.76	24d	1	0.15mi
11 E Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	950	$1,333	$1.40	1d	11	0.15mi
220 W Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1082	$1,139	$1.05	1d	32	0.18mi
10 E Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	658	$1,184	$1.80	1d	33	0.24mi
16220 N 7th St Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	885	$1,140	$1.29	1d	35	0.52mi
17031 N 11th Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	771	$1,176	$1.52	1d	25	0.60mi
17249 N 7th St Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	956	$1,102	$1.15	1d	37	0.78mi
17625 N 7th St Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	925	$999	$1.08	3d	7	0.87mi
719 E Lola Dr Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	688	$2,900	$4.22	7d	1	0.99mi
17241 N 16th Dr #1 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	672	$1,450	$2.16	43d	1	1.07mi
1100 E Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	987	$1,369	$1.39	1d	26	1.07mi
17617 N 9th St Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	956	$1,009	$1.06	1d	35	1.11mi
17239 N 19th Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	801	$1,056	$1.32	1d	32	1.26mi
17425 N 19th Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	776	$814	$1.05	1d	40	1.30mi
1450 E Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	957	$1,027	$1.07	2d	93	1.45mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $29,000 Active 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $29,000 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   pricedays on market $29,000 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $34,444 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $34,444 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $34,444 Active 27 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $34,444 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $34,444 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $34,444 Active 22 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $34,444 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $34,444 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $34,444 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $34,444 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-05-13
    listed $34,444 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥110°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,167
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,624
• − Property taxes: −$435
• − Insurance: −$145
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,133
• − Management: −$1,133
• − Depreciation: −$844
• Taxable income: $8,853
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,125
• After-tax cash flow: $6,663/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 2006 Cavco home is in good condition with a good layout and modern appliances. It's located in a 55+ age-restricted golf community with amenities. The home is move-in ready with minor maintenance needed.

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both paint exterior — improves curb appeal and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both paint exterior — improves curb appeal and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Glendale Union High School District (4285)
• NCES district ID: 0403450
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -38.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -19.00%
• Median HH income: $40,846
• Composite: 22.81/100
• National rank: #8020
• State rank: #130 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3924

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 1,500,198
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 35,034
• Household income: $77,369
• Rent vs Own: 40.4% rent · 59.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1539.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 11% Black 7% Asian 6% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -348.79%
• Current HPI: 311.8587
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.35%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Listed $34,444 ARMLS