1407 Middle Rd #275 · Calverton, NY 11933

$410,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,530 sqft · Manufactured · 144 Days on market

Built 2006 $268/sqft · 22% below area Est $525k · 22% under $839/mo HOA · 10% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +6.6/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Lovely three bedroom two full bath ranch style home in 55+ gated community. Full unfinished basement. One car attached garage. Front and rear deck. Large eat-in kitchen. Beautiful flooring throughout the living room, dining room and hallways. Large eat-in kitchen with island.

Key facts

• Private deck
• Gated community
• Clubhouse

Tags

• PRIMARY ENSUITE BEDROOM
• PRIVATE DECK
• LAUNDRY ROOM
• GATED COMMUNITY
• CLUBHOUSE
• COMMUNITY OUTDOOR POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $410k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($34k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($8k rent vs $410k).
• Recommended offer: $361k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.6% vs local median 7.2% in Calverton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,053 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Watch: crime C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Riverhead Central School District (suburban): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #489 of 590 in NY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Riley Avenue School (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #1,195 of 2,108 statewide, top 60%, 461 students, 34% FRL); Riverhead Middle School (math 18% / reading 35%, grade F, #594 of 729 statewide, top 81%, 827 students, 57% FRL); Riverhead Senior High School (math 80% / reading 86%, grade A, #440 of 1,100 statewide, top 40%, 2,001 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: 85 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $13k appreciation (3.3% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (3.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $115k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 144 days — a 12% lower offer ($361k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $360,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 144 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.95% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.55%
• DSCR: 2.31
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $525,278
• List price: $410,000
• Delta: -21.95%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1407 Middle Rd #258	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+2%)	4mo	$525,000	$335	85
1800 Osborn Ave Unit 27E	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,500 (-2%)	4mo	$210,000	$140	66
1407 unit 4 Middle Rd #4	0.17mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,400 (-8%)	9mo	$425,000	$304	65
1407 Middle Rd #22	0.17mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,700 (+11%)	8mo	$389,999	$229	62
1795 Osborne Ave #75	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-12%)	2mo	$265,000	$197	51
433 Mill Rd Unit 1	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-12%)	7mo	$167,000	$124	44
1800 Obsorne Ave 23e	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-12%)	12mo	$235,000	$175	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.26% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 35.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.05×
• Total profit: $235,629
• Equity at exit: $190,376

10-year hold

• IRR: 35.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.06×
• Total profit: $580,344
• Equity at exit: $298,163

Cash invested: $114,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11933

• Home prices YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 85
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $8,014 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,150
• Tax from tax record: −$344 /mo · $4,131/yr
• Insurance: −$171
• HOA: −$839
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,683
• Net cashflow: $2,827

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,436

Max offer price $410,000

Occupancy floor 60%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $3,059	-5% $2,943	+0% $2,827	+5% $2,711	+10% $2,595
Rent	-10% $2,194	-5% $2,510	+0% $2,827	+5% $3,143	+10% $3,460
Rate	-1.0pp $3,033	-0.5pp $2,931	base $2,827	+0.5pp $2,721	+1.0pp $2,613

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $102,500
• Closing costs: $12,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16 Mastro Ct Calverton, NY	3.0	2.5	1822	$7,500	$4.12	0d	1	0.70mi
19 Kroemer Ave Riverhead, NY	4.0	2.0	2000	$9,000	$4.50	0d	1	1.23mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $839 · $10,068/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-15
   pricestatusdays on market $410,000 Pending 144 DOM
2. 2026-05-08
   price $410,000
3. 2026-04-28
   status Active
4. 2026-03-03
   price $422,000
5. 2025-12-05
   listed $425,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,131 · $344/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,530 · $461/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,399/yr (+$117/mo · 33.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $96,167
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,966
• − Property taxes: −$4,131
• − Insurance: −$2,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$7,693
• − Management: −$7,693
• − HOA: −$10,068
• − Depreciation: −$11,927
• Taxable income: $29,638
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$7,113
• After-tax cash flow: $26,809/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverhead Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3624690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 13.00%
• Median HH income: $61,607
• Composite: 36.38/100
• National rank: #4683
• State rank: #489 of 590 in NY

Livability — Calverton

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1053
• US rank: #20908

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime C- Employment D Housing C Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Calverton, NY
• City population: 6,784
• Population (ZIP): 6,784

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 10% Black 8% Two or more races 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 1% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 3% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.26%
• Current HPI: 397.7148
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-3.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $410,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-28 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $422,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-05 Listed $425,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid