231 Monte Carlo Rd · Onalaska, TX 77364

$85,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 840 sqft · Manufactured public records · 65 Days on market

Built 2005 6,403 sqft lot $101/sqft · 23% below area Est $111k · 23% under $40/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Appreciation +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy lake living at Holiday Villages on Lake Livingston! This property is a GREAT weekend get-a-way, or the PERFECT landing spot for those who enjoy the RV life! This 3 bedroom, 1 bath mobile home is clean with a covered front porch and sits on 2 lots. The furniture and washer/dryer/refrigerator remain in the home. BONUS:RV carport with full hook-ups and a storage shed. The roof was replaced in 2023; the water heater and plumbing replaced in 2023 to 2024; foundation redone in 2024; gravel driveway and RV pad redone 2024. The property is completely fenced and gated. Community amenities include a clubhouse, swimming pool, boat launch, fishing pier, and a covered picnic area by the water. Visit their website for upcoming events! Holiday Villages has a gated entrance and they are currently working on upgrading the roads in the neighborhood. This is one of the few neighborhoods around Lake Livingston with public sewer. Conveniently located within 30 minutes of Livingston or Huntsville.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Lake living
• Community amenities

Tags

• LAKE LIVING
• RV CARPORT
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• COMPLETELY FENCED
• GATED ENTRANCE
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $154 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($992 rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $80k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 2.9% in Onalaska — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,055 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D+, schools D.
• Coldspring-Oakhurst CISD (rural): math 18% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #732 of 826 in TX (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 197 active listings in the ZIP; 575 units permitted in San Jacinto County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $328 of equity ($588 loan paydown + $-260 appreciation (-0.3% local appreciation)).
• San Jacinto County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-0.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($80k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,900 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.77%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $110,543
• List price: $85,000
• Delta: -23.11%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
130 Casablanca Dr	0.25mi	2/2.0 (-1)	896 (+7%)	12mo	$104,999	$117	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.31% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.26×
• Total profit: $6,154
• Equity at exit: $23,388

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.17×
• Total profit: $27,961
• Equity at exit: $27,102

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77364

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 197
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $992 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$109 /mo · $1,302/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$40
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$208
• Net cashflow: $154

Break-even live

Break-even rent $797

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $202	-5% $178	+0% $154	+5% $130	+10% $106
Rent	-10% $76	-5% $115	+0% $154	+5% $193	+10% $232
Rate	-1.0pp $197	-0.5pp $176	base $154	+0.5pp $132	+1.0pp $110

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $40 · $480/yr
• Likely covers: watersewerpoolsecurity

Listing history 37 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $85,000 Active 65 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $85,000 Active 63 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,000 Active 62 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,000 Active 61 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,000 Active 60 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,000 Active 59 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $85,000 Active 57 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,000 Active 56 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $85,000 Active 54 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $85,000 Active 53 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $85,000 Active 52 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $85,000 Active 51 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $85,000 Active 47 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $85,000 Active 46 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $85,000 Active 45 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Active 44 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $85,000 Active 43 DOM
18. 2026-04-17
    listed $85,000 Active 996-char remark

    Show marketing remark (996 chars)

    Enjoy lake living at Holiday Villages on Lake Livingston! This property is a GREAT weekend get-a-way, or the PERFECT landing spot for those who enjoy the RV life! This 3 bedroom, 1 bath mobile home is clean with a covered front porch and sits on 2 lots. The furniture and washer/dryer/refrigerator remain in the home. BONUS:RV carport with full hook-ups and a storage shed. The roof was replaced in 2023; the water heater and plumbing replaced in 2023 to 2024; foundation redone in 2024; gravel driveway and RV pad redone 2024. The property is completely fenced and gated. Community amenities include a clubhouse, swimming pool, boat launch, fishing pier, and a covered picnic area by the water. Visit their website for upcoming events! Holiday Villages has a gated entrance and they are currently working on upgrading the roads in the neighborhood. This is one of the few neighborhoods around Lake Livingston with public sewer. Conveniently located within 30 minutes of Livingston or Huntsville.

19. 2026-04-16
    historical
20. 2025-07-08
    price $98,000
21. 2025-04-11
    listed $120,000 Active
22. 2023-04-19
    soldstatus Sold
23. 2023-04-19
    soldstatus
24. 2023-03-31
    status Pending
25. 2022-11-02
    listed $125,000 Active
26. 2016-07-13
    soldstatus Sold
27. 2016-06-26
    status Pending
28. 2016-05-23
    status Pending, Continue to Show
29. 2015-10-13
    price $59,000
30. 2015-07-16
    listed $61,000 Active
31. 2015-07-01
    historical
32. 2014-08-21
    listed $69,000 Active
33. 2014-08-10
    historical
34. 2014-05-01
    listed $75,000 Active
35. 2014-04-28
    historical
36. 2014-04-05
    listed $75,000 Active
37. 2002-06-03
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,302 · $109/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,556 · $130/mo
• Expected delta: +$253/yr (+$21/mo · 19.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,906
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$1,302
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$952
• − Management: −$952
• − HOA: −$480
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $559
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$134
• After-tax cash flow: $1,715/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Coldspring-Oakhurst CISD
• NCES district ID: 4814520
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $46,916
• Composite: 20.07/100
• National rank: #8653
• State rank: #732 of 826 in TX

Livability — Onalaska

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1055
• US rank: #18716

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,835

Population outlook (San Jacinto County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 29,069 people
• By 2030: 29,750 · +2.3%
• By 2040: 30,714 · +5.7%
• By 2050: 31,010 · +6.7%
• By 2075: 31,616 · +8.8%
• By 2100: 29,874 · +2.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Black 13% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Italian 4% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Jacinto

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.3) · D 17.0% · R 82.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.0pp toward R · 2008: -38.3pp · 2024: -65.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.3 2020: R+61.9 2016: R+58.4 2012: R+48.9 2008: R+38.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.31%
• Current HPI: 193.4748
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+13.3% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Listed $85,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-16 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-07-08 Price Changed $98,000 HARMLS
• 2025-04-11 Listed $120,000 HARMLS
• 2023-04-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-04-19 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2023-03-31 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-11-02 Listed $125,000 HARMLS
• 2016-07-13 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2016-06-26 Pending — HARMLS
• 2016-05-23 Pending — HARMLS
• 2015-10-13 Price Changed $59,000 HARMLS
• 2015-07-16 Listed $61,000 HARMLS
• 2015-07-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2014-08-21 Listed $69,000 HARMLS
• 2014-08-10 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2014-05-01 Listed $75,000 HARMLS
• 2014-04-28 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2014-04-05 Listed $75,000 HARMLS
• 2002-06-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+23.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,302 · +6.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.