215 9th St SW · Watertown, SD 57201

$18,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 660 sqft · Manufactured · 169 Days on market

Built 1968

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Built 1968
• Listed 168 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family residence; One level
• Exterior features: Irregular lot shape

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: Refrigerator; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $18k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $693 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $18k).
• Recommended offer: $16k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 52.5% vs local median 2.3% in Watertown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#11 in SD, #2,681 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Watertown School District 14-4 (town): math 45% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #28 of 59 in SD (top 48%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 227 active listings in the ZIP; 160 units permitted in Codington County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($73k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $124 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $540 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Codington County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $5k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 169 days — a 12% lower offer ($16k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $12k (40%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $15,840 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 169 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.75% ✓
• Cap rate: 52.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 164.93%
• DSCR: 8.34
• GRM: 1.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 9.18×
• Total profit: $41,219
• Equity at exit: $2,684

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 19.41×
• Total profit: $92,768
• Equity at exit: $1,556

Cash invested: $5,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State South Dakota: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; mostly landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 57201

• Active inventory: 227
• Price-to-rent: 1.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,034 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$94
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$22 /mo · $270/yr
• Insurance: −$8
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$217
• Net cashflow: $693

Break-even live

Break-even rent $157

Max offer price $18,000

Occupancy floor 28%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $705	-5% $699	+0% $693	+5% $687	+10% $680
Rent	-10% $611	-5% $652	+0% $693	+5% $734	+10% $774
Rate	-1.0pp $702	-0.5pp $697	base $693	+0.5pp $688	+1.0pp $683

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $4,500
• Closing costs: $540
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $18,000 Active 169 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $18,000 Active 168 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $18,000 Active 167 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $18,000 Active 166 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $18,000 Active 165 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $18,000 Active 163 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $18,000 Active 162 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $18,000 Active 159 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $18,000 Active 158 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $18,000 Active 157 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    listed $18,000 Active 155 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,412
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,008
• − Property taxes: −$270
• − Insurance: −$90
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$993
• − Management: −$993
• − Depreciation: −$524
• Taxable income: $8,534
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,048
• After-tax cash flow: $6,265/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Watertown School District 14-4
• NCES district ID: 4676620
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $46,575
• Composite: 43.24/100
• National rank: #3057
• State rank: #28 of 59 in SD

Livability — Watertown

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #11
• US rank: #2681

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Watertown, SD
• County: Codington County · 26,781 people
• City population: 26,781
• Metro: Watertown, SD
• Population (ZIP): 26,781
• Household income: $72,878
• Rent vs Own: 31.5% rent · 68.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 613.0

Population outlook (Codington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 29,752 people
• By 2030: 30,627 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 32,285 · +8.5%
• By 2050: 33,812 · +13.6%
• By 2075: 39,184 · +31.7%
• By 2100: 46,673 · +56.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3% Native American 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 15% Romanian 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Codington

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.8) · D 28.4% · R 69.2% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.4pp toward R · 2008: -6.4pp · 2024: -40.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.8 2020: R+38.9 2016: R+39.3 2012: R+18.3 2008: R+6.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -161.04%
• Current HPI: 165.8449
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Watertown, SD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 0.70%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in SD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Utilities	1	$1B

Price history

+1700.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Relisted — NESD
• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $18,000 NESD
• 2025-12-02 Price Changed $24,900 NESD
• 2025-10-07 Listed $29,900 NESD
• 2025-05-17 Rental Removed $1,000 BUILDIUM
• 2025-04-13 Listed for Rent $1,000 BUILDIUM

Property tax history

-2.2%/yr

Latest (2026): $19 · +0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.