833 Sherman St · Johnstown, PA 15901

$15,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,920 sqft · SingleFamily · 25 Days on market

1.39 ac lot ↓ 35% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +2.3/10.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks

FOUR lots totaling 1.38 acres in the city of Johnstown! These properties have a great mix of wooded area, cleared space, lawn, and a parking area that will make any project or vision work! A current structure still stands with all utility hook-ups available. With some TLC, this 3 bedroom can be a permanent residence or even an investment.

Key facts

• Parking area
• Lawn
• Wooded area

Tags

• WOODED AREA
• CLEARED SPACE
• LAWN
• PARKING AREA
• UTILITY HOOK-UPS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer available
• Home design: Single family residence; Two levels (2 stories)
• Construction: Aluminum siding and frame construction
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Public maintained road access; City street frontage; Lot zoned residential

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Natural gas heating
• Interior features: Unfinished basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $15k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $15k).
• Recommended offer: $15k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 91.1% vs local median 15.0% in Johnstown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#363 in PA, #3,168 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, employment F.
• Greater Johnstown SD (urban): math 9% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #509 of 539 in PA (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 20 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 64 units permitted in Cambria County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $104 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $450 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cambria County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $4k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($15k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $14,775 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 9.82% ✓
• Cap rate: 91.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 302.91%
• DSCR: 14.48
• GRM: 0.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $51,840
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
530 Ash St	0.46mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,100 (+9%)	4mo	$57,500	$27	48
822 Oak St	0.63mi	3/3.0	1,741 (-9%)	1mo	$60,000	$34	46
532 Horner St	0.29mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,632 (-15%)	9mo	$38,000	$23	45
1087 Mckinley Ave	0.74mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,733 (-10%)	4mo	$45,000	$26	39
69 Dartmouth Ave	0.72mi	3/2.0	2,085 (+9%)	22mo	$190,000	$91	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 16.50×
• Total profit: $65,116
• Equity at exit: $2,237

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 35.22×
• Total profit: $143,740
• Equity at exit: $1,297

Cash invested: $4,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 15901

• Home prices YoY: -5.5%
• Active inventory: 20
• Price-to-rent: 0.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,473 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$79
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$19 /mo · $225/yr
• Insurance: −$6
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$309
• Net cashflow: $1,060

Break-even live

Break-even rent $131

Max offer price $15,000

Occupancy floor 23%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $3,750
• Closing costs: $450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
129-131 Plainfield Ave Johnstown, PA	3.0	1.0	1300	$850	$0.65	44d	1	1.34mi
704 Cypress Ave Unit 706 Johnstown, PA	3.0	1.0	2496	$950	$0.38	44d	1	1.43mi
108 Dell St Johnstown, PA	3.0	2.0	2250	$1,749	$0.78	15d	1	1.49mi
108 Dell St Johnstown, PA	3.0	2.0	2250	$1,749	$0.78	8d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-15
   statusdays on market $15,000 Pending 25 DOM
2. 2026-06-14
   days on market $15,000 Active 24 DOM
3. 2026-06-12
   days on market $15,000 Active 23 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $15,000 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $15,000 Active 19 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $15,000 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-05
   days on market $15,000 Active 15 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $15,000 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $15,000 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $15,000 Active 11 DOM
11. 2026-05-30
    days on market $15,000 Active 10 DOM
12. 2026-05-20
    listed $15,000 Active
13. 2025-10-23
    status Active
14. 2025-08-15
    status Pending
15. 2025-08-04
    price $14,500
16. 2025-05-31
    price $15,000
17. 2025-04-21
    price $17,000
18. 2025-04-15
    price $19,500
19. 2025-02-11
    status Active
20. 2025-02-05
    historical Active Under Contract
21. 2025-02-03
    status Pending
22. 2024-12-05
    listed $20,000 Active
23. 2023-11-24
    status Pending
24. 2023-11-02
    status Active
25. 2023-10-22
    status Active
26. 2023-10-10
    status Pending
27. 2023-08-16
    status Active
28. 2023-08-16
    price $16,000
29. 2023-08-14
    historical
30. 2023-07-12
    price $19,000
31. 2023-05-20
    price $20,000
32. 2023-04-27
    listed $23,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,679
• − Mortgage interest: −$840
• − Property taxes: −$225
• − Insurance: −$75
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,414
• − Management: −$1,414
• − Depreciation: −$436
• Taxable income: $13,274
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,186
• After-tax cash flow: $9,537/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Greater Johnstown SD
• NCES district ID: 4210950
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $27,890
• Composite: 13.25/100
• National rank: #9550
• State rank: #509 of 539 in PA

Livability — Johnstown

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #363
• US rank: #3168

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Johnstown, PA
• City population: 30,791
• Population (ZIP): 3,466

Population outlook (Cambria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 122,754 people
• By 2030: 115,827 · -5.6%
• By 2040: 101,309 · -17.5%
• By 2050: 88,379 · -28.0%
• By 2075: 65,237 · -46.9%
• By 2100: 46,909 · -61.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Black 16% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 6% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 8% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Cambria

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.7) · D 29.8% · R 69.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -40.4pp toward R · 2008: 0.7pp · 2024: -39.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.7 2020: R+37.3 2016: R+37.8 2012: R+17.8 2008: D+0.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -5.41%
• Current HPI: 92.1212
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-34.8% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $15,000 CSMLS
• 2025-10-23 Relisted — CSMLS
• 2025-08-15 Pending — CSMLS
• 2025-08-04 Price Changed $14,500 CSMLS
• 2025-05-31 Price Changed $15,000 CSMLS
• 2025-04-21 Price Changed $17,000 CSMLS
• 2025-04-15 Price Changed $19,500 CSMLS
• 2025-02-11 Relisted — CSMLS
• 2025-02-05 Contingent — CSMLS
• 2025-02-03 Pending — CSMLS
• 2024-12-05 Listed $20,000 CSMLS
• 2023-11-24 Pending — CSMLS
• 2023-11-02 Relisted — CSMLS
• 2023-10-22 Relisted — CSMLS
• 2023-10-10 Pending — CSMLS
• 2023-08-16 Relisted — CSMLS
• 2023-08-16 Price Changed $16,000 CSMLS
• 2023-08-14 Delisted — CSMLS
• 2023-07-12 Price Changed $19,000 CSMLS
• 2023-05-20 Price Changed $20,000 CSMLS
• 2023-04-27 Listed $23,000 CSMLS

Property tax history

+0.2%/yr

Latest (2026): $805 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.