2441 E Penedes Dr · Gilbert, AZ 85298

$699,999

5 bd · 5.0 ba · 2,880 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 64 Days on market

Built 2013 8,399 sqft lot $243/sqft · at area comps Est $717k · at est. $108/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +9.2/10.0
• ARV discount +8.6/15.0
• Cash flow +5.5/30.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Stunning single level Fulton home with 5 beds and 4 full baths. Tile throughout with carpet in 3 bedrooms plus a den/office. Upgraded cabinets and granite counters, gas appliances and an island. Close to shopping and dining and much more. Don't miss your opportunity to own this amazing home.

Key facts

• 8,399 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2013

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/5.0-bath single-family listed at $700k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-18k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $434k (38.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $359k (48.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $359k (48.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 87/100 on livability (#1 in AZ, #240 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living F.
• Chandler Unified District #80 (4242) (suburban): math 49% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #31 of 249 in AZ (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 329 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $63k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $59k appreciation (8.4% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$102k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($658k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $359,136 (48.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 49% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.51% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.22%
• DSCR: 0.59
• GRM: 16.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $717,105
• List price: $699,999
• Delta: -2.39%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2441 E Penedes Dr	0.00mi	5/4.0	2,880 (0%)	1mo	$675,000	$234	95
2482 E Plum St	0.06mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,880 (0%)	1mo	$780,000	$271	81
2574 E Donato Dr	0.48mi	5/2.5	2,890 (+0%)	2mo	$715,000	$247	65
15834 E Ocotillo Rd	0.28mi	5/3.0	2,691 (-7%)	5mo	$835,000	$310	64
2435 E Narrowleaf Dr	0.23mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,708 (-6%)	1mo	$839,000	$310	64
2550 E Penedes Dr	0.15mi	5/3.0	3,083 (+7%)	16mo	$640,000	$208	60
2466 E Aris Dr	0.47mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,862 (-1%)	3mo	$715,000	$250	59
2587 E Lodgepole Dr	0.30mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,692 (-6%)	3mo	$890,000	$331	58
5502 S Pico St	0.17mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,692 (-6%)	12mo	$753,000	$280	56
2483 E Narrowleaf Dr	0.23mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,692 (-6%)	11mo	$665,000	$247	54
2861 E Alexander Ct	0.66mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,938 (+2%)	6mo	$725,000	$247	50
2553 E Carob Dr	0.49mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,692 (-6%)	12mo	$770,000	$286	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.36% appreciation · 4.31% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.09×
• Total profit: $213,290
• Equity at exit: $549,184

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.58×
• Total profit: $701,091
• Equity at exit: $1,107,128

Cash invested: $196,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85298

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 329
• Price-to-rent: 16.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,591 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,671
• Tax from tax record: −$273 /mo · $3,278/yr
• Insurance: −$292
• HOA: −$108
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$754
• Net cashflow: $-1,506

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,498

Max offer price $433,871

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,110	-5% $-1,308	+0% $-1,506	+5% $-1,705	+10% $-1,903
Rent	-10% $-1,790	-5% $-1,648	+0% $-1,506	+5% $-1,365	+10% $-1,223
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,154	-0.5pp $-1,328	base $-1,506	+0.5pp $-1,688	+1.0pp $-1,872

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $175,000
• Closing costs: $21,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2543 E Penedes Dr Gilbert, AZ	4.0	3.0	2496	$2,695	$1.08	44d	1	0.12mi
5475 S Cardinal St Gilbert, AZ	4.0	2.5	2708	$4,000	$1.48	2d	1	0.25mi
2954 E Coconino Dr Gilbert, AZ	4.0	2.0	2180	$2,590	$1.19	3d	1	0.68mi
6071 S Rockwell St Gilbert, AZ	5.0	3.0	2375	$2,695	$1.13	17d	1	0.73mi
1876 E Azalea Ct Gilbert, AZ	4.0	3.5	3452	$6,500	$1.88	2d	1	0.99mi
2303 E Citadel Dr Gilbert, AZ	4.0	3.0	2265	$2,750	$1.21	25d	1	1.11mi
1533 E Sourwood Ct Gilbert, AZ	5.0	3.0	2750	$3,300	$1.20	44d	1	1.16mi
3355 E Indigo St Gilbert, AZ	6.0	5.0	4036	$6,900	$1.71	3d	1	1.26mi
2250 E Kelly Dr Gilbert, AZ	5.0	3.0	1956	$2,700	$1.38	11d	1	1.33mi
3484 E Coconino Way Gilbert, AZ	5.0	3.0	2928	$3,400	$1.16	15d	1	1.34mi
1546 E Nightingale Ln Gilbert, AZ	4.0	2.5	2421	$3,500	$1.45	19d	1	1.37mi
3436 E Casa Mader Dr Gilbert, AZ	6.0	4.5	4120	$3,900	$0.95	44d	1	1.41mi
1447 E Mia Ln Gilbert, AZ	4.0	3.0	2421	$2,345	$0.97	44d	1	1.43mi
1277 E Tonto Dr Gilbert, AZ	4.0	3.5	2952	$4,000	$1.36	25d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $108 · $1,296/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-04
   status Pending 292-char remark

   Show marketing remark (292 chars)

   Stunning single level Fulton home with 5 beds and 4 full baths. Tile throughout with carpet in 3 bedrooms plus a den/office. Upgraded cabinets and granite counters, gas appliances and an island. Close to shopping and dining and much more. Don't miss your opportunity to own this amazing home.

2. 2026-04-22
   price $699,999 292-char remark

   Show marketing remark (292 chars)

   Stunning single level Fulton home with 5 beds and 4 full baths. Tile throughout with carpet in 3 bedrooms plus a den/office. Upgraded cabinets and granite counters, gas appliances and an island. Close to shopping and dining and much more. Don't miss your opportunity to own this amazing home.

3. 2026-04-12
   price $709,999 292-char remark

   Show marketing remark (292 chars)

   Stunning single level Fulton home with 5 beds and 4 full baths. Tile throughout with carpet in 3 bedrooms plus a den/office. Upgraded cabinets and granite counters, gas appliances and an island. Close to shopping and dining and much more. Don't miss your opportunity to own this amazing home.

4. 2026-03-24
   price $724,999 292-char remark

   Show marketing remark (292 chars)

   Stunning single level Fulton home with 5 beds and 4 full baths. Tile throughout with carpet in 3 bedrooms plus a den/office. Upgraded cabinets and granite counters, gas appliances and an island. Close to shopping and dining and much more. Don't miss your opportunity to own this amazing home.

5. 2026-03-09
   price $749,999 292-char remark

   Show marketing remark (292 chars)

   Stunning single level Fulton home with 5 beds and 4 full baths. Tile throughout with carpet in 3 bedrooms plus a den/office. Upgraded cabinets and granite counters, gas appliances and an island. Close to shopping and dining and much more. Don't miss your opportunity to own this amazing home.

6. 2026-02-27
   listed $774,900 Active 292-char remark

   Show marketing remark (292 chars)

   Stunning single level Fulton home with 5 beds and 4 full baths. Tile throughout with carpet in 3 bedrooms plus a den/office. Upgraded cabinets and granite counters, gas appliances and an island. Close to shopping and dining and much more. Don't miss your opportunity to own this amazing home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,278 · $273/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,620 · $385/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,342/yr (+$112/mo · 41.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $43,096
• − Mortgage interest: −$39,211
• − Property taxes: −$3,278
• − Insurance: −$3,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,448
• − Management: −$3,448
• − HOA: −$1,296
• − Depreciation: −$20,364
• Taxable loss: −$31,447
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$7,547
• After-tax cash flow: $-10,531/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chandler Unified District #80 (4242)
• NCES district ID: 0401870
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $74,048
• Composite: 47.54/100
• National rank: #2268
• State rank: #31 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Gilbert

• Score: 87/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #240

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gilbert, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 281,769
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 44,114
• Household income: $156,425
• Rent vs Own: 8.9% rent · 91.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 173.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Asian 7% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.36%
• Current HPI: 343.6932
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.31%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-9.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $699,999 ARMLS
• 2026-04-12 Price Changed $709,999 ARMLS
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $724,999 ARMLS
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $749,999 ARMLS
• 2026-02-27 Listed $774,900 ARMLS

Property tax history

+36.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,278 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.