11665 Box Elder Way · Vance, AL 35490

$239,900

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,865 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 36 Days on market

Built 2009 0.30 ac lot $129/sqft · 13% below area Est $277k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.5/15.0
• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Craftsman style home with amazing details and beautiful curb appeal. 3 BR and 2-1/2 baths. Open concept floor plan with high ceilings, hardwoods, spacious family room and 3 dining areas. Large laundry room with sink. Great price! Act quickly!!! Additional pictures to be added.

Key facts

• Soaring ceilings
• Privacy fence
• Covered patio

Tags

• LAUNDRY ROOM WITH WET SINK
• OPEN DINING ROOM
• SOARING CEILINGS
• GAS LOG FIREPLACE
• PRIVACY FENCE
• COVERED PATIO

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: Nature Walk
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Concrete driveway; 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level
• Construction: Frame construction with vinyl siding; Composition/shingle roof
• Exterior features: Paved road access; No pool listed

Interior

• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Fireplace; Water heater
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-58 ($-691/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $230k (4.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $174k (27.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $174k (27.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.6% in Vance — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#117 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Tuscaloosa County (suburban): math 21% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #47 of 129 in AL (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Vance Elementary School (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #367 of 627 statewide, top 60%, 499 students, 69% FRL); Brookwood Middle School (math 8% / reading 36%, grade F, #182 of 257 statewide, top 71%, 796 students, 65% FRL); Brookwood High School (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #118 of 305 statewide, top 45%, 1,078 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools average 64% FRL vs 45% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 79 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 622 units permitted in Tuscaloosa County in 2024 (69 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Tuscaloosa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $67k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($233k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $206k; 17% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 55% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $173,681 (27.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.03%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $276,630
• List price: $239,900
• Delta: -13.28%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11681 Box Elder Way	0.04mi	3/2.5	1,872 (+0%)	1mo	$276,900	$148	95
11463 Walden Trce	0.07mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,774 (-5%)	8mo	$250,000	$141	73
17847 Alecia Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,650 (-12%)	1mo	$289,900	$176	67
11621 Cedar Glades Dr	0.12mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,747 (-6%)	10mo	$281,000	$161	67
17818 Alecia Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,693 (-9%)	11mo	$274,000	$162	67
17848 Alecia Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,650 (-12%)	2mo	$289,900	$176	67
17811 Alecia Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,641 (-12%)	12mo	$250,000	$152	61
11382 Tingle Tangle Rd	0.27mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,774 (-5%)	12mo	$284,900	$161	60
11388 Tingle Tangle Rd	0.31mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,774 (-5%)	12mo	$285,000	$161	59
17865 Alecia Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,650 (-12%)	10mo	$279,500	$169	58
17917 April Leigh Cir	0.37mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,774 (-5%)	12mo	$284,900	$161	56
11481 Big Sandy Springs Rd	0.56mi	3/3.5	2,100 (+13%)	5mo	$377,500	$180	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.89×
• Total profit: $126,873
• Equity at exit: $216,121

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.60×
• Total profit: $376,279
• Equity at exit: $466,073

Cash invested: $67,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35490

• Home prices YoY: 5.8%
• Active inventory: 79
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,737 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,258
• Tax from tax record: −$72 /mo · $860/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$365
• Net cashflow: $-58

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,810

Max offer price $229,725

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $78	-5% $10	+0% $-58	+5% $-125	+10% $-193
Rent	-10% $-195	-5% $-126	+0% $-58	+5% $11	+10% $80
Rate	-1.0pp $63	-0.5pp $3	base $-58	+0.5pp $-120	+1.0pp $-183

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,975
• Closing costs: $7,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11565 Cedar Glades Dr Vance, AL	3.0	2.0	1618	$1,661	$1.03	11d	1	0.13mi

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $239,900 Active 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $239,900 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $239,900 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $239,900 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $239,900 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $239,900 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $239,900 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $239,900 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $239,900 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $239,900 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $239,900 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $239,900 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $239,900 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $239,900 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $239,900 Active 18 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $239,900 Active 17 DOM
17. 2026-05-13
    listed $239,900 Active 539-char remark
18. 2020-09-18
    soldstatus $205,900
19. 2020-09-16
    soldstatus $205,900 279-char remark

    Show marketing remark (279 chars)

    Craftsman style home with amazing details and beautiful curb appeal. 3 BR and 2-1/2 baths. Open concept floor plan with high ceilings, hardwoods, spacious family room and 3 dining areas. Large laundry room with sink. Great price! Act quickly!!! Additional pictures to be added.

20. 2020-07-28
    listed $205,900 279-char remark

    Show marketing remark (279 chars)

    Craftsman style home with amazing details and beautiful curb appeal. 3 BR and 2-1/2 baths. Open concept floor plan with high ceilings, hardwoods, spacious family room and 3 dining areas. Large laundry room with sink. Great price! Act quickly!!! Additional pictures to be added.

21. 2018-03-29
    soldstatus $199,900

    Show marketing remark (779 chars)

    This charming craftsman style home is one of the largest homes built in Nature Walk. This is one of the original house plans of Nature Walk and attention to detail shines through as soon as you pull into the driveway. Excellent landscaping with added features, such as the split rail fenced accents at the front yard. So charming! Walk through the front doors and you know it is move in perfect! Huge laundry room with wet sink. Grand open dining room off the kitchen. The kitchen is a perfect design for cooking family meals and entertaining. Sit at the kitchen bar or kitchen nook, but definitely room for everyone to enjoy. The family room has soaring ceilings with a gas log fireplace and tons of natural light that make this home feel perfect for any family. So much to see!

22. 2018-03-29
    soldstatus $199,900

    Show marketing remark (779 chars)

    This charming craftsman style home is one of the largest homes built in Nature Walk. This is one of the original house plans of Nature Walk and attention to detail shines through as soon as you pull into the driveway. Excellent landscaping with added features, such as the split rail fenced accents at the front yard. So charming! Walk through the front doors and you know it is move in perfect! Huge laundry room with wet sink. Grand open dining room off the kitchen. The kitchen is a perfect design for cooking family meals and entertaining. Sit at the kitchen bar or kitchen nook, but definitely room for everyone to enjoy. The family room has soaring ceilings with a gas log fireplace and tons of natural light that make this home feel perfect for any family. So much to see!

23. 2018-03-29
    soldstatus $199,900

    Show marketing remark (779 chars)

    This charming craftsman style home is one of the largest homes built in Nature Walk. This is one of the original house plans of Nature Walk and attention to detail shines through as soon as you pull into the driveway. Excellent landscaping with added features, such as the split rail fenced accents at the front yard. So charming! Walk through the front doors and you know it is move in perfect! Huge laundry room with wet sink. Grand open dining room off the kitchen. The kitchen is a perfect design for cooking family meals and entertaining. Sit at the kitchen bar or kitchen nook, but definitely room for everyone to enjoy. The family room has soaring ceilings with a gas log fireplace and tons of natural light that make this home feel perfect for any family. So much to see!

24. 2018-02-13
    listed $199,900

    Show marketing remark (779 chars)

    This charming craftsman style home is one of the largest homes built in Nature Walk. This is one of the original house plans of Nature Walk and attention to detail shines through as soon as you pull into the driveway. Excellent landscaping with added features, such as the split rail fenced accents at the front yard. So charming! Walk through the front doors and you know it is move in perfect! Huge laundry room with wet sink. Grand open dining room off the kitchen. The kitchen is a perfect design for cooking family meals and entertaining. Sit at the kitchen bar or kitchen nook, but definitely room for everyone to enjoy. The family room has soaring ceilings with a gas log fireplace and tons of natural light that make this home feel perfect for any family. So much to see!

25. 2018-02-13
    listed $199,900

    Show marketing remark (779 chars)

    This charming craftsman style home is one of the largest homes built in Nature Walk. This is one of the original house plans of Nature Walk and attention to detail shines through as soon as you pull into the driveway. Excellent landscaping with added features, such as the split rail fenced accents at the front yard. So charming! Walk through the front doors and you know it is move in perfect! Huge laundry room with wet sink. Grand open dining room off the kitchen. The kitchen is a perfect design for cooking family meals and entertaining. Sit at the kitchen bar or kitchen nook, but definitely room for everyone to enjoy. The family room has soaring ceilings with a gas log fireplace and tons of natural light that make this home feel perfect for any family. So much to see!

26. 2014-06-26
    soldstatus $189,000
27. 2014-06-11
    soldstatus $324,000
28. 2014-06-04
    soldstatus $175,000
29. 2014-04-16
    listed $198,000
30. 2009-05-13
    soldstatus $195,048

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $860 · $72/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $984 · $82/mo
• Expected delta: +$124/yr (+$10/mo · 14.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 55% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,842
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,438
• − Property taxes: −$860
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,667
• − Management: −$1,667
• − Depreciation: −$6,979
• Taxable loss: −$4,969
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,193
• After-tax cash flow: $501/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tuscaloosa County
• NCES district ID: 0103390
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $53,000
• Composite: 28.88/100
• National rank: #6641
• State rank: #47 of 129 in AL

Livability — Vance

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #117
• US rank: #12508

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Vance, AL
• County: Tuscaloosa County · 206,491 people
• City population: 4,457
• Metro: Tuscaloosa, AL
• Population (ZIP): 4,457
• Household income: $87,813
• Rent vs Own: 11.7% rent · 88.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 5.0

Population outlook (Tuscaloosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 228,293 people
• By 2030: 240,551 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 263,856 · +15.6%
• By 2050: 286,491 · +25.5%
• By 2075: 335,783 · +47.1%
• By 2100: 370,520 · +62.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 10% Black 4% Two or more races 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: French 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 7% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Tuscaloosa

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.4) · D 39.4% · R 59.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.4pp toward R · 2008: -16.0pp · 2024: -20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.4 2020: R+14.8 2016: R+19.5 2012: R+17.4 2008: R+16.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.30%
• Current HPI: 222.8671
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tuscaloosa, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+23.0% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Listed $239,900 WAMLS
• 2020-09-18 Sold (Public Records) $205,900 Public Records
• 2020-09-16 Sold (MLS) $205,900 WAMLS
• 2020-07-28 Listed $205,900 WAMLS
• 2018-03-29 Sold (Public Records) $199,900 Public Records
• 2018-03-29 Sold (MLS) $199,900 WAMLS
• 2018-03-29 Sold (MLS) $199,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2018-02-13 Listed $199,900 WAMLS
• 2018-02-13 Listed $199,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2014-06-26 Sold (Public Records) $189,000 Public Records
• 2014-06-11 Sold (Public Records) $324,000 Public Records
• 2014-06-04 Sold (MLS) $175,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2014-04-16 Listed $198,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2009-05-13 Sold (Public Records) $195,048 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $860 · +1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.