551 S Bayberry Pl · Corpus Christi, TX 78418

$225,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,290 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 59 Days on market

Built 1963 9,999 sqft lot $174/sqft · at area comps Est $221k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.9/30.0
• ARV discount +6.7/15.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this charming 3 bedroom, 2 bath that perfectly blends comfort and style. Step inside to find updated flooring throughout with an abundance of natural light that creates a warm, inviting atmosphere in every room. The kitchen features sleek stainless steel appliances, while the guest bathroom offers elegant granite countertops. The primary suite boasts a beautiful tiled shower, adding a touch of luxury to your daily routine. Step outside into your own private backyard retreat- perfect for entertaining or relaxing- featuring a spacious yard, an above-ground pool, and a large shed for extra storage or workspace. The outdoor kitchen with a stainless steel sink makes hosting gathe

Key facts

• Updated flooring
• Granite countertops
• Above-ground pool

Tags

• UPDATED FLOORING
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• TILED SHOWER
• PRIVATE BACKYARD RETREAT
• ABOVE-GROUND POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-18 ($-213/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $222k (1.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $210k (6.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $210k (6.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.6% in Corpus Christi — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#66 in TX, #2,404 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Flour Bluff ISD (urban): math 43% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #209 of 826 in TX (top 25%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Flour Bluff El (math 40% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,462 of 4,322 statewide, top 34%, 759 students, 53% FRL); Flour Bluff J H (math 45% / reading 53%, grade C-, #378 of 1,662 statewide, top 23%, 919 students, 46% FRL); Flour Bluff H S (math 33% / reading 62%, grade D, #583 of 1,632 statewide, top 36%, 1,958 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools at 47% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.6%/yr); 703 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 56% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,397 units permitted in Nueces County in 2024 (47 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Nueces County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($218k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $209,532 (6.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.34%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $221,082
• List price: $225,000
• Delta: 1.77%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3309 Cartagena Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,259 (-2%)	3mo	$220,000	$175	80
3146 Mill Brook Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,273 (-1%)	6mo	$199,950	$157	75
420 E Cartagena Cir	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,351 (+5%)	3mo	$141,855	$105	71
401 Antares	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,346 (+4%)	0mo	$280,000	$208	70
610 Bel Air Dr	0.54mi	3/1.5	1,302 (+1%)	5mo	$249,000	$191	67
430 Antares Dr	0.39mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,233 (-4%)	3mo	$189,900	$154	67
3231 Jamaica Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,372 (+6%)	5mo	$339,000	$247	63
3726 Lynda Lee Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,320 (+2%)	5mo	$350,000	$265	60
682 Kaipo Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,404 (+9%)	4mo	$250,000	$178	57
521 Glenoak Dr	0.72mi	3/1.0	1,344 (+4%)	4mo	$69,000	$51	52
2838 Ransom Island Dr	0.59mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,189 (-8%)	6mo	$200,000	$168	49
428 Trinidad Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,106 (-14%)	7mo	$198,900	$180	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-43,629
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.00×
• Total profit: $-62,757
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78418

• Rents YoY: -0.6%
• Active inventory: 703
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,095 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$399 /mo · $4,793/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$440
• Net cashflow: $-18

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,118

Max offer price $221,859

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $110	-5% $46	+0% $-18	+5% $-81	+10% $-145
Rent	-10% $-183	-5% $-101	+0% $-18	+5% $65	+10% $148
Rate	-1.0pp $96	-0.5pp $39	base $-18	+0.5pp $-76	+1.0pp $-135

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
538 Vega Dr Corpus Christi, TX	4.0	2.0	1539	$1,925	$1.25	45d	1	0.15mi
530 Oakdale Dr Corpus Christi, TX	2.0	1.0	1113	$1,350	$1.21	45d	1	0.40mi
557 Yorktown Blvd Corpus Christi, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0	1714	$2,337	$1.36	15d	1	0.83mi
3021 Laguna Shores Rd Corpus Christi, TX	2.0	2.0	1440	$2,500	$1.74	45d	1	0.86mi
702 Truk Dr Corpus Christi, TX	3.0	2.0	1508	$1,650	$1.09	46d	1	0.90mi
3942 Laguna Shores Rd Corpus Christi, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$3,800	$2.53	15d	1	1.16mi
2445 Laguna Shores Rd Corpus Christi, TX	4.0	4.5	1609	$5,500	$3.42	15d	1	1.27mi
4141 Whiteley Dr Unit 1 Corpus Christi, TX	2.0	1.5	900	$1,295	$1.44	22d	1	1.33mi
2255 Lombardy Dr Corpus Christi, TX	3.0	2.0	1574	$1,750	$1.11	45d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2021-06-23
   soldstatus
2. 2010-06-15
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,793 · $399/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,793 · $399/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,144
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$4,793
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,012
• − Management: −$2,012
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$3,946
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$947
• After-tax cash flow: $734/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Flour Bluff ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819380
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,162
• Composite: 40.96/100
• National rank: #3604
• State rank: #209 of 826 in TX

Livability — Corpus Christi

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #66
• US rank: #2404

Category grades

Amenities C Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Corpus Christi, TX
• County: Nueces County · 296,836 people
• City population: 296,836
• Metro: Corpus Christi, TX
• Population (ZIP): 29,790
• Household income: $92,445
• Rent vs Own: 31.8% rent · 68.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 808.0

Population outlook (Nueces County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 418,037 people
• By 2030: 447,123 · +7.0%
• By 2040: 505,911 · +21.0%
• By 2050: 567,522 · +35.8%
• By 2075: 729,686 · +74.6%
• By 2100: 847,087 · +102.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 19% Asian 3% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 14% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Nueces

• 2024 margin: R (+11.5) · D 43.8% · R 55.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.1pp toward R · 2008: -4.4pp · 2024: -11.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.5 2020: R+2.9 2016: R+1.5 2012: R+3.2 2008: R+4.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -168.81%
• Current HPI: 193.902
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.57%
• Metro: Corpus Christi, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property tax history

+6.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,793 · +5.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.