Accolade Plan · Manchester, NY 14548

$79,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 980 sqft · Manufactured · 17 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.5/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks

Brand new and move-in ready, this three-bedroom home offers an open floor plan designed for real living, whether that's Sunday mornings with the family or quiet evenings with a view of the fields stretching out behind you. A full appliance package is already in place, so you can settle in without the hassle.

Key facts

• Listed 17 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area of 980 (unit omitted as requested)
• Financial info: List price $79,900

Exterior

• Utilities: Propane heating (utility)
• Home design: Single-family plan (Accolade)
• Construction: New construction (2026 listing)
• Exterior features: Asphalt roof

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating
• Interior features: Plan named Accolade (new construction plan)

🏗️ New construction. The $79,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $115,640.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $80k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $415 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#562 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools D, employment D, amenities F.
• Manchester-Shortsville Central School District (Red Jacket) (rural): math 49% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #343 of 590 in NY (top 58%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 11 active listings in the ZIP; 284 units permitted in Ontario County in 2024 (69 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $800 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ontario County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $78,701 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.37%
• DSCR: 1.68
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $115,640
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3872 Outlet Rd #21	0.67mi	3/1.0	980 (0%)	17mo	$18,500	$19	51
3538 Route 96	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,104 (+13%)	3mo	$130,000	$118	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.24×
• Total profit: $7,700
• Equity at exit: $17,242

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.26×
• Total profit: $40,813
• Equity at exit: $9,998

Cash invested: $32,379 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14548

• Home prices YoY: -2.2%
• Active inventory: 11
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,537 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$606
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$145 /mo · $1,735/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$323
• Net cashflow: $415

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,012

Max offer price $115,640

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $495	-5% $455	+0% $415	+5% $375	+10% $335
Rent	-10% $293	-5% $354	+0% $415	+5% $475	+10% $536
Rate	-1.0pp $473	-0.5pp $444	base $415	+0.5pp $385	+1.0pp $354

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,910
• Closing costs: $3,469
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,900 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,900 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,900 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,900 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,900 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,900 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $79,900 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $79,900 Active 8 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $79,900 Active 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $79,900 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $79,900 Active 3 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $79,900 Active 2 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    remarks 309-char remark
14. 2026-06-02
    listed $79,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,439
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,478
• − Property taxes: −$1,735
• − Insurance: −$578
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,475
• − Management: −$1,475
• − Depreciation: −$3,364
• Taxable income: $3,334
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$800
• After-tax cash flow: $4,177/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This move-in ready manufactured home is in excellent condition with new appliances, flooring, and fixtures. It offers a good investment opportunity with minimal maintenance required.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manchester-Shortsville Central School District (Red Jacket)
• NCES district ID: 3624270
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $56,758
• Composite: 44.66/100
• National rank: #2768
• State rank: #343 of 590 in NY

Livability — Manchester

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #562
• US rank: #10095

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 1,655
• Population (ZIP): 3,695

Population outlook (Ontario County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 111,230 people
• By 2030: 111,401 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 109,535 · -1.5%
• By 2050: 104,895 · -5.7%
• By 2075: 92,999 · -16.4%
• By 2100: 73,723 · -33.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Iranian 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ontario

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.4% · R 50.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.0pp toward R · 2008: -0.1pp · 2024: -1.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.2 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.6 2012: R+1.6 2008: R+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -6.14%
• Current HPI: 269.6522
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B