Is 271 Quail Run Way Way SE in Allenhurst, GA a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it D- with a 5.2% cap rate and $-258/mo modeled cash flow at a $278,875 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 271 Quail Run Way Way SE?

The modeled cap rate is 5.2% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,156/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

D- Composite 38.87

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

Cash flow +8.2/30.0
ARV discount +7.6/15.0
Appreciation +5.1/10.0
Condition / age +4.8/5.0
Livability +3.1/5.0
1% rule +2.7/10.0
Schools +2.7/10.0
Rent growth +2.5/5.0
DSCR +2.2/10.0

$278,875

271 Quail Run Way Way SE · Allenhurst, GA 31301

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,565 sqft · SingleFamily · 71 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 1.79 ac lot Garage $178/sqft · at area comps Est $279k · at est. $34/mo HOA · 2% of rent

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

The Stafford floor plan, situated on an expansive 1.79-acre homesite in The Village at Sassafras Phase 2, offers the perfect blend of space, comfort, and curb appeal. A charming brick accent skirt enhances the home's exterior, while the versatile layout features 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, making it ideal for families of various sizes. The open-concept living area provides clear sightlines from the kitchen to the breakfast nook, creating a welcoming space for everyday living and entertaining. The primary suite boasts a sizable walk-in closet and a private bath featuring a dual sinks, garden tub, and separate shower.

Key facts

Dual sinks
Walk-in closet
Private bath

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $279k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-258 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $242k (13.4% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $216k (22.7% below list).
Recommended offer: $216k (22.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

Location reads 62/100 on livability (#319 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
Long County (rural): math 26% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #115 of 174 in GA (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Smiley Elementary School (1,258 students, 67% FRL); Long County Middle School (math 21% / reading 27%, grade F, #311 of 470 statewide, top 68%, 945 students, 69% FRL); Long County High School (math 37% / reading 22%, grade F, #140 of 424 statewide, top 35%, 1,209 students, 70% FRL).
Market conditions: 173 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 298 units permitted in Long County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

In year one you build about $2k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $433 appreciation (0.2% local appreciation)).
Long County population projected at +72% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($262k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $215,627 (22.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.77% ✗
Cap rate: 5.18%
Cash-on-cash: -3.96%
DSCR: 0.82
GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $279,346
List price: $278,875
Delta: -0.17%
Verdict: FAIR
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
663 Buckhead Loop SE	0.19mi	4/2.0	1,565 (0%)	2mo	$276,975	$177	89
1007 Buckhead Loop SE	0.13mi	4/2.0	1,565 (0%)	8mo	$289,210	$185	87
1118 Buckhead Loop SE	0.19mi	4/2.0	1,565 (0%)	8mo	$275,650	$176	85
722 Buckhead Loop SE	0.19mi	4/2.5	1,609 (+3%)	2mo	$279,800	$174	83
393 Buckhead Loop SE	0.34mi	4/2.0	1,565 (0%)	2mo	$280,500	$179	83
337 Buckhead Loop SE	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,527 (-2%)	5mo	$282,705	$185	71
709 Buckhead Loop SE	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,380 (-12%)	1mo	$282,125	$204	66
358 Buckhead Loop SE	0.34mi	4/2.0	1,735 (+11%)	4mo	$301,090	$174	63
1948 SE Arnold Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,380 (-12%)	2mo	$276,000	$200	61
265 Antler Ave SE	0.20mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,380 (-12%)	8mo	$259,945	$188	60
308 Buckhead Loop SE	0.34mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,380 (-12%)	5mo	$261,375	$189	54
1611 Arnall Dr Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,380 (-12%)	5mo	$278,000	$201	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.16% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -6.1%
Equity multiple: 0.71×
Total profit: $-22,480
Equity at exit: $83,150

10-year hold

IRR: -0.2%
Equity multiple: 0.98×
Total profit: $-1,591
Equity at exit: $101,702

Cash invested: $78,085 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 35 active · 16 under contract
Months of supply: 15.0 mo (7%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $277,975 ($173/sqft)
Median days on market: 74 d
This list price: 54% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +3.4% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 31301

Home prices YoY: 0.1%
Active inventory: 173
Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,156 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,462
Tax est. 1.5%: −$349 /mo · $4,183/yr
Insurance: −$116
HOA: −$34
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$453
Net cashflow: $-258

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,483

Max offer price $241,572

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-65	-5% $-161	+0% $-258	+5% $-354	+10% $-451
Rent	-10% $-428	-5% $-343	+0% $-258	+5% $-173	+10% $-87
Rate	-1.0pp $-117	-0.5pp $-187	base $-258	+0.5pp $-330	+1.0pp $-404

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $69,719
Closing costs: $8,366
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
469 Archie Way Hinesville, GA	4.0	2.5	2001	$2,000	$1.00	93d	1	1.47mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other: Subdivision: The Village At Sassafras
HOA & community: Homeowners association with a $34 monthly fee

Exterior

Parking: Attached garageDriveway2 covered parking spaces (2 total spaces, 2 garage spaces)
Utilities: Electricity connected / electric on propertyUnderground utilitiesSeptic tank
Home design: Single family residenceOne levelUnder construction
Construction: Brick and vinyl siding exteriorShingle roofSlab foundationBuilt recently / under construction
Exterior features: Landscaped lotIrrigation equipmentPaved road access

Interior

Kitchen: DishwasherElectric ovenElectric rangeMicrowaveRefrigerator
Flooring: CarpetVinyl
Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
Heating & cooling: Central heatingCentral air (electric)
Interior features: Breakfast barEntrance foyerPantryTen total rooms
Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric water heater

Listing history 50 events

2026-08-08

days on market $278,875 Active 71 DOM
2026-08-07

days on market $278,875 Active 70 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $278,875 Active 69 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $278,875 Active 68 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $278,875 Active 67 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $278,875 Active 66 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $278,875 Active 63 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $278,875 Active 62 DOM
2026-07-29

days on market $278,875 Active 61 DOM
2026-07-27

days on market $278,875 Active 59 DOM
2026-07-25

days on market $278,875 Active 57 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $278,875 Active 56 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $278,875 Active 55 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $278,875 Active 54 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $278,875 Active 53 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $278,875 Active 50 DOM
2026-07-16

days on market $278,875 Active 48 DOM
2026-07-16

days on market $278,875 Active 47 DOM
2026-07-14

days on market $278,875 Active 46 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $278,875 Active 45 DOM
2026-07-12

days on market $278,875 Active 44 DOM
2026-07-11

days on market $278,875 Active 43 DOM
2026-07-10

days on market $278,875 Active 42 DOM
2026-07-09

days on market $278,875 Active 41 DOM
2026-07-08

days on market $278,875 Active 40 DOM
2026-07-07

days on market $278,875 Active 39 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $278,875 Active 38 DOM
2026-07-05

days on market $278,875 Active 37 DOM
2026-07-04

days on market $278,875 Active 36 DOM
2026-07-03

days on market $278,875 Active 35 DOM
2026-07-02

days on market $278,875 Active 34 DOM
2026-07-01

days on market $278,875 Active 33 DOM
2026-06-30

days on market $278,875 Active 32 DOM
2026-06-29

days on market $278,875 Active 31 DOM
2026-06-28

days on market $278,875 Active 30 DOM
2026-06-28

days on market $278,875 Active 29 DOM
2026-06-27

days on market $278,875 Active 28 DOM
2026-06-26

days on market $278,875 Active 27 DOM
2026-06-23

days on market $278,875 Active 24 DOM
2026-06-21

days on market $278,875 Active 23 DOM
2026-06-19

days on market $278,875 Active 21 DOM
2026-06-18

days on market $278,875 Active 20 DOM
2026-06-17

days on market $278,875 Active 19 DOM
2026-06-16

days on market $278,875 Active 18 DOM
2026-06-15

days on market $278,875 Active 17 DOM
2026-06-14

days on market $278,875 Active 15 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $278,875 Active 14 DOM
2026-06-10

days on market $278,875 Active 12 DOM
2026-06-09

days on market $278,875 Active 11 DOM
2026-06-08

days on market $278,875 Active 10 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $25,875
− Mortgage interest: −$15,621
− Property taxes: −$4,183
− Insurance: −$1,394
− Repairs & maintenance: −$2,070
− Management: −$2,070
− HOA: −$408
− Depreciation: −$8,113
Taxable loss: −$7,984

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,916
After-tax cash flow: $-1,177/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a great blend of space, comfort, and curb appeal, making it ideal for families. Minor updates to the exterior and interior can further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
Both New kitchen appliances — Enhances functionality and aesthetics ↑
Both New bathroom fixtures — Enhances functionality and aesthetics ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 26/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Mcclelland Elementary School F GA #728/1,228 Nat'l #29,575/41,679 Middle Long County Middle School F GA #311/470 Nat'l #10,795/14,009 High Long County High School F GA #140/424 Nat'l #11,215/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Long County
NCES district ID: 1303360
Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -14.00%
Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -13.00%
Median HH income: $45,958
Composite: 22.51/100
National rank: #8090
State rank: #115 of 174 in GA

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Allenhurst

Score: 62/100
State rank: #319
US rank: #17124

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County: Liberty County · 24,669 people
Metro: Hinesville, GA
Population (ZIP): 4,933
Household income: $65,417
Rent vs Own: 55.7% rent · 44.3% own
Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

Population outlook (Long County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 24,669 people
By 2030: 28,223 · +14.4%
By 2040: 35,430 · +43.6%
By 2050: 42,403 · +71.9%
By 2075: 56,996 · +131.0%
By 2100: 64,185 · +160.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
Race & ethnicity: Black 51% White 31% Two or more races 15% Hispanic / Latino 9%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 7%
Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Long

2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 35.1% · R 64.6%
2008→2024 swing: -5.4pp toward R · 2008: -24.1pp · 2024: -29.5pp
All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+26.4 2016: R+30.8 2012: R+22.9 2008: R+24.1

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▲ 0.16%
Current HPI: 187.7716
Rent YoY: —
Metro: Hinesville, GA
State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
#203 WestRock Atlanta $19.3B #346 Graphic Packaging Holding Atlanta $9.4B
Retail	1	$160B
#24 Home Depot Atlanta $159.5B
Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
#47 United Parcel Service Atlanta $91.1B
Airlines	1	$62B
#70 Delta Air Lines Atlanta $61.6B
Consumer Goods	1	$47B
#97 Coca-Cola Atlanta $47.1B
Utilities	1	$25B
#147 Southern Company Atlanta $24.9B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

2026-05-29 Listed $278,875 HABR

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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