9715 Blue Sapphire Dr · Iowa Colony, TX 77583

$272,500

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,121 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 2017 5,501 sqft lot Est $358k · 24% under $108/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.7/30.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

GATED SECTION: This classically beautiful home, in the Sterling Lakes subdivision, is minutes from 288 & Hwy 6. Great curb appeal and well maintained brick exterior. Newly painted from the inside. Features 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathroom, & a 2 car garage w/ automatic opener. Recently installed Luxury Vinyl Plank flooring in the living room & primary bedroom. Primary bedroom suite w/ walk-in closet is located on the 1st floor & 3 additional bedrooms plus a full bathroom upstairs. You will fall in love with the design of this spacious home. A generously sized living room, separate dining room, & open kitchen with large pantry make entertaining at home easier than ever! U

Key facts

• Brick exterior
• Walk-in closet
• Separate dining room

Tags

• GATED SECTION
• STERLING LAKES SUBDIVISION
• BRICK EXTERIOR
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SEPARATE DINING ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA managed by Associa Principal Management Group; Gated community; Community pool; Annual association fee of $1,300 covering recreation facilities

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 parking spaces
• Security: Controlled access
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2017; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Brick and cement siding construction
• Exterior features: Partial fencing; Fence; Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Microwave; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (17x14); Three additional bedrooms on the second floor (12x11; 13x12; 14x12)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Granite counters; Separate shower

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $272k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-129 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $250k (8.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $272k).
• Recommended offer: $250k (8.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.2% in Iowa Colony — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#757 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Alvin ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #255 of 826 in TX (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Iowa Colony H S (792 students, 56% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1147 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $249,632 (8.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.72%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.04%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $358,449
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9715 Blue Sapphire Dr	0.00mi	4/2.5	2,121 (0%)	0mo	$272,500	$128	100
9114 Serene Hvn	0.59mi	4/3.0	2,042 (-4%)	1mo	$352,865	$173	63
1419 Splashing Wave Dr	0.60mi	4/2.0	2,031 (-4%)	1mo	$319,990	$158	62
1523 Splashing Wave Dr	0.63mi	4/2.0	2,031 (-4%)	0mo	$349,490	$172	61
9111 Serene Haven Dr	0.62mi	4/2.0	2,035 (-4%)	1mo	$319,490	$157	61
1522 Shimmering Ocean Way	0.65mi	4/3.0	2,042 (-4%)	1mo	$331,000	$162	61
1507 Shimmering Ocean Way	0.66mi	4/3.0	2,042 (-4%)	1mo	$354,490	$174	60
9007 Serene Hvn	0.66mi	4/3.0	2,042 (-4%)	2mo	$356,865	$175	59
9019 Rose Water	0.74mi	4/2.0	2,042 (-4%)	2mo	$344,490	$169	56
1406 Angelfish Dr	0.73mi	4/2.0	2,031 (-4%)	3mo	$344,490	$170	55
9107 Serene Hvn	0.63mi	4/2.5	2,322 (+10%)	2mo	$355,865	$153	53
9822 Garnet Springs Dr	0.70mi	4/2.0	1,879 (-11%)	1mo	$260,000	$138	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-59,090
• Equity at exit: $40,631

10-year hold

• IRR: -29.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.15×
• Total profit: $-88,093
• Equity at exit: $23,561

Cash invested: $76,300 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77583

• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 1147
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,790 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,429
• Tax from tax record: −$683 /mo · $8,196/yr
• Insurance: −$114
• HOA: −$108
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$586
• Net cashflow: $-129

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,954

Max offer price $249,632

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $25	-5% $-52	+0% $-129	+5% $-207	+10% $-284
Rent	-10% $-350	-5% $-240	+0% $-129	+5% $-19	+10% $91
Rate	-1.0pp $8	-0.5pp $-60	base $-129	+0.5pp $-200	+1.0pp $-272

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,125
• Closing costs: $8,175
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9423 Grand Spark Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	3.0	1999	$2,600	$1.30	44d	1	0.18mi
9439 Ruby Mist Dr Rosharon, TX	5.0	2.5	2605	$2,276	$0.87	0d	1	0.27mi
1123 Diamond Drape Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1844	$2,000	$1.08	13d	1	0.46mi
10313 Malta Trace Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1802	$2,545	$1.41	44d	1	0.60mi
1816 Corsica Creek Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1653	$2,669	$1.61	0d	20	0.66mi
9518 Peridot Green Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1593	$1,886	$1.18	23d	1	0.72mi
10211 Alpine Lake Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1731	$3,025	$1.75	0d	6	0.85mi
10211 Alpine Lake Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1731	$2,875	$1.66	44d	7	0.85mi
10610 Cascade Creek Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1548	$2,700	$1.74	44d	1	0.87mi
10507 Moon Valley Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1548	$2,650	$1.71	0d	1	0.89mi
10502 Moon Valley Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1615	$2,725	$1.69	0d	1	0.89mi
10622 Cascade Creek Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1780	$2,775	$1.56	44d	1	0.90mi
2314 Red Slate Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	4.0	2531	$2,850	$1.13	44d	1	0.91mi
10630 Cascade Creek Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.5	1940	$2,875	$1.48	3d	1	0.92mi
10538 Wildflower View Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1522	$2,775	$1.82	0d	1	0.99mi
1234 Scarlet Creek Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1548	$2,650	$1.71	0d	1	1.00mi
10602 Wildflower View Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1596	$2,850	$1.79	21d	1	1.01mi
1014 Star Grass Ln Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	2067	$2,375	$1.15	44d	1	1.02mi
1403 Cascade Hills Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	3.0	2067	$3,450	$1.67	8d	1	1.04mi
10714 Cliffs View Dr Iowa Colony, TX	4.0	3.5	2070	$2,700	$1.30	44d	1	1.10mi
2510 Green Jasper Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1561	$2,375	$1.52	44d	1	1.27mi
1119 Toledo Bend Pass Rosharon, TX	5.0	3.0	2200	$2,500	$1.14	44d	1	1.41mi
2523 Topaz Hill Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1857	$2,950	$1.59	17d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $108 · $1,296/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-04-30
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-23
   listed $272,500 Active
3. 2023-08-15
   historical $2,250
4. 2023-08-10
   historical
5. 2023-07-28
   listed $2,250
6. 2023-06-22
   status Active
7. 2023-06-12
   status Option Pending
8. 2023-05-16
   price $289,900
9. 2023-04-20
   listed $297,500 Active
10. 2023-03-27
    historical
11. 2023-03-10
    historical
12. 2021-06-09
    soldstatus
13. 2018-03-28
    soldstatus Sold
14. 2018-03-02
    status Pending
15. 2018-01-04
    price $218,900
16. 2017-12-15
    price $216,900
17. 2017-12-08
    listed $214,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,196 · $683/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,196 · $683/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,480
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,264
• − Property taxes: −$8,196
• − Insurance: −$1,362
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,678
• − Management: −$2,678
• − HOA: −$1,296
• − Depreciation: −$7,927
• Taxable loss: −$5,923
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,421
• After-tax cash flow: $-132/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alvin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808090
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $66,740
• Composite: 38.96/100
• National rank: #4080
• State rank: #255 of 826 in TX

Livability — Iowa Colony

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #757
• US rank: #13904

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Iowa Colony, TX
• County: Brazoria County · 374,982 people
• City population: 52,747
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 52,747
• Household income: $119,287
• Rent vs Own: 9.8% rent · 90.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 251.0

Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 38% Black 34% White 20% Two or more races 18% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -120.19%
• Current HPI: 198.6559
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+26.8% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-23 Listed $272,500 HARMLS
• 2023-08-15 Rental Removed $2,250 HARMLS
• 2023-08-10 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-07-28 Listed for Rent $2,250 HARMLS
• 2023-06-22 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2023-06-12 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-05-16 Price Changed $289,900 HARMLS
• 2023-04-20 Listed $297,500 HARMLS
• 2023-03-27 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-03-10 Coming Soon — HARMLS
• 2021-06-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-03-28 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2018-03-02 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-01-04 Price Changed $218,900 HARMLS
• 2017-12-15 Price Changed $216,900 HARMLS
• 2017-12-08 Listed $214,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+34.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,196 · -8.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.