183 Eby Ln · Lower Swatara, PA 17057

$79,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 952 sqft · Manufactured public records · 12 Days on market

Built 2026 1,000 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 1,000 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 2026

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Not in a federal flood zone
• Financial info: Annual ground rent listed as an income/expense item
• HOA & community: Park name: Swatara Shores; Ground rent paid annually; years remaining listed as 0

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking with two spaces (total 2)
• Utilities: Public water; Public septic; Hot water: other; Power: propane options noted
• Home design: Manufactured single-wide home (Clayton Topaz); Above-grade finished living area approximately 1,000 (estimated); Construction completed; Building winterized
• Construction: Shingle roof; Other structures above grade; Fee simple ownership
• Exterior features: Located in Swatara Shores community; Roads are blacktop with a road maintenance agreement; Ground rent exists and is paid annually

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Luxury vinyl plank
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Propane fuel (leased or owned); Cooling fuel: other
• Interior features: Home in excellent condition; Not furnished; No basement; Property manager present; Accessible features present (other)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry hook-up

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $79k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $678 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $79k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Middletown Area SD (suburban): math 31% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #368 of 539 in PA (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Middletown Area Hs (math 72% / reading 10%, grade F, #251 of 437 statewide, top 58%, 747 students, 51% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 146 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 540 units permitted in Dauphin County in 2024 (194 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $546 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.6% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.93% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 40.37%
• DSCR: 2.80
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $17,136
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18 Caravan Ct	0.14mi	2/1.0 (-1)	924 (-3%)	8mo	$17,000	$18	77

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.58% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.28×
• Total profit: $28,226
• Equity at exit: $11,779

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.24×
• Total profit: $71,631
• Equity at exit: $6,830

Cash invested: $22,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17057

• Home prices YoY: -23.9%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 146
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,528 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$414
• Tax from tax record: −$16 /mo · $190/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$321
• Net cashflow: $678

Break-even live

Break-even rent $670

Max offer price $79,000

Occupancy floor 51%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,750
• Closing costs: $2,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
415 Aspen St Unit 1 Middletown, PA	2.0	1.0	864	$1,495	$1.73	13d	1	0.17mi
105 Woodland Ave Middletown, PA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	996	$1,714	$1.72	13d	9	0.62mi
43 E Main St Apt 4 Middletown, PA	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,195	$1.20	44d	1	0.83mi
1900 Pineford Dr Middletown, PA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1020	$1,690	$1.66	13d	1	0.84mi
213 S Union St Apt 1 Middletown, PA	2.0	1.0	780	$1,400	$1.79	13d	1	1.32mi
144 Wilson St Middletown, PA	3.0	1.0	1120	$1,495	$1.33	23d	1	1.32mi
219 S Union St Fl REAR Middletown, PA	2.0	1.0	700	$900	$1.29	13d	1	1.33mi
219 S Union St Unit 2nd Floor Middletown, PA	2.0	1.0	700	$1,250	$1.79	43d	1	1.33mi
167 Ann St Unit 4 Middletown, PA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,300	$1.62	13d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,000 Active 12 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,000 Active 11 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,000 Active 10 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,000 Active 9 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $79,000 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $79,000 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $79,000 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $79,000 Active 2 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   listed $79,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $190 · $16/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $719 · $60/mo
• Expected delta: +$529/yr (+$44/mo · 277.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 78% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,339
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,425
• − Property taxes: −$190
• − Insurance: −$1,192
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,467
• − Management: −$1,467
• − Depreciation: −$2,298
• Taxable income: $7,298
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,752
• After-tax cash flow: $6,382/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Middletown Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4215240
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $53,128
• Composite: 33.08/100
• National rank: #5567
• State rank: #368 of 539 in PA

Livability — Lower Swatara

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Dauphin County · 247,857 people
• Metro: Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
• Population (ZIP): 23,560
• Household income: $73,407
• Rent vs Own: 33.4% rent · 66.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 748.0

Population outlook (Dauphin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 281,628 people
• By 2030: 283,549 · +0.7%
• By 2040: 285,385 · +1.3%
• By 2050: 286,188 · +1.6%
• By 2075: 291,053 · +3.3%
• By 2100: 282,374 · +0.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 7%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dauphin

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.9) · D 52.4% · R 46.5% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.1pp toward R · 2008: 9.1pp · 2024: 5.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.9 2020: D+8.5 2016: D+2.8 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+9.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.17%
• Current HPI: 265.6077
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.58%
• Metro: Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-06 Listed $79,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $190 · +4.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.