18200 Normandeau St · Shady Hills, FL 34610

$159,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,392 sqft · Manufactured public records · 19 Days on market

Built 1997 1.16 ac lot Est $271k · 41% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Bring your homestead vision to life on this gated and fenced 1.16-acre AR-zoned property offering privacy, space, and a country style living with no HOA! Situated on a paved road, No Flood Zone this 1997 double-wide manufactured home features 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, a split-bedroom layout, and a spacious primary suite with en-suite bath and large walk-in closet. Interior features include wood plank-style flooring, an inside utility/laundry utility space, kitchen with dining space, and plenty of opportunity to personalize and make it your own. Outside, enjoy room for animals, gardening, and other fun recreational use. A workshop/shed (2023) with electricity conveys as-is, along with private well and septic systems already in place. HVAC replaced in 2023. Ideal opportunity for buyers seeking a light fixer-upper, investment potential, or a place to create their own homestead lifestyle on over an acre of land. Property is being marketed site unseen only at this time. Interior access will be granted during the inspection period following an accepted contract. Please do not disturb occupants or access the property without authorization.

Key facts

• Split-bedroom layout
• Paved road
• No flood zone

Tags

• 1.16-ACRE AR-ZONED PROPERTY
• NO HOA
• PAVED ROAD
• NO FLOOD ZONE
• SPLIT-BEDROOM LAYOUT
• SPACIOUS PRIMARY SUITE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Homestead exempt; Other structures include shed(s) and workshop; Lot size approximately 1.18 acres; One well and one septic on property; Unfurnished
• HOA & community: No HOA association listed; Pets allowed: cats and dogs

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank; Electricity available; Water available
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; One story; Facing west; Residential property in AR zoning; Property condition: fixer
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built as a double-wide manufactured home
• Exterior features: Front porch; Rear porch; Outdoor lighting; Private mailbox; Sidewalk; Oversized, paved lot in an unincorporated area; Publicly maintained concrete/paved road

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Thermostat; Window shades
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Inside laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $159k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $159k).
• Recommended offer: $157k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.7% vs local median 3.5% in Shady Hills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#467 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, commute D+.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Shady Hills Elementary School (math 48% / reading 45%, grade D-, #1,223 of 2,144 statewide, top 57%, 471 students, 77% FRL); Hudson High School (math 45% / reading 40%, grade F, #264 of 667 statewide, top 41%, 1,387 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 71% FRL vs 48% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 252 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($157k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $105k; list at $159k implies a 51% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $156,615 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.64% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.00%
• DSCR: 2.33
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $271,440
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17736 Medley Ave	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,458 (+5%)	3mo	$285,000	$195	68
17718 Rockledge Ave	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,252 (-10%)	4mo	$155,000	$124	62
18008 Greensboro St	0.66mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,512 (+9%)	1mo	$280,000	$185	49
18446 Alexson St	0.57mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,592 (+14%)	14mo	$348,000	$219	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.01×
• Total profit: $45,078
• Equity at exit: $23,707

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.93×
• Total profit: $130,335
• Equity at exit: $13,747

Cash invested: $44,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34610

• Home prices YoY: -13.8%
• Active inventory: 252
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,615 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax from tax record: −$53 /mo · $634/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$549
• Net cashflow: $1,113

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,206

Max offer price $159,000

Occupancy floor 52%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,203	-5% $1,158	+0% $1,113	+5% $1,068	+10% $1,023
Rent	-10% $906	-5% $1,010	+0% $1,113	+5% $1,216	+10% $1,320
Rate	-1.0pp $1,193	-0.5pp $1,154	base $1,113	+0.5pp $1,072	+1.0pp $1,030

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,750
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18321 Edgewood Dr Spring Hill, FL	2.0	2.0	1633	$2,800	$1.71	25d	1	0.50mi
156 Rose Bud Ln Spring Hill, FL	4.0	2.5	1875	$2,200	$1.17	3d	1	0.98mi

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $159,000 Pending 19 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,000 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $159,000 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $159,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $159,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $159,000 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $159,000 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $159,000 Active 8 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $159,000 Active 7 DOM
10. 2026-05-24
    listed $159,000 Active 1149-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1149 chars)

    Bring your homestead vision to life on this gated and fenced 1.16-acre AR-zoned property offering privacy, space, and a country style living with no HOA! Situated on a paved road, No Flood Zone this 1997 double-wide manufactured home features 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, a split-bedroom layout, and a spacious primary suite with en-suite bath and large walk-in closet. Interior features include wood plank-style flooring, an inside utility/laundry utility space, kitchen with dining space, and plenty of opportunity to personalize and make it your own. Outside, enjoy room for animals, gardening, and other fun recreational use. A workshop/shed (2023) with electricity conveys as-is, along with private well and septic systems already in place. HVAC replaced in 2023. Ideal opportunity for buyers seeking a light fixer-upper, investment potential, or a place to create their own homestead lifestyle on over an acre of land. Property is being marketed site unseen only at this time. Interior access will be granted during the inspection period following an accepted contract. Please do not disturb occupants or access the property without authorization.

11. 2026-05-24
    listed $159,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (1149 chars)

    Bring your homestead vision to life on this gated and fenced 1.16-acre AR-zoned property offering privacy, space, and a country style living with no HOA! Situated on a paved road, No Flood Zone this 1997 double-wide manufactured home features 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, a split-bedroom layout, and a spacious primary suite with en-suite bath and large walk-in closet. Interior features include wood plank-style flooring, an inside utility/laundry utility space, kitchen with dining space, and plenty of opportunity to personalize and make it your own. Outside, enjoy room for animals, gardening, and other fun recreational use. A workshop/shed (2023) with electricity conveys as-is, along with private well and septic systems already in place. HVAC replaced in 2023. Ideal opportunity for buyers seeking a light fixer-upper, investment potential, or a place to create their own homestead lifestyle on over an acre of land. Property is being marketed site unseen only at this time. Interior access will be granted during the inspection period following an accepted contract. Please do not disturb occupants or access the property without authorization.

12. 2019-11-11
    historical
13. 2017-10-10
    soldstatus $105,000
14. 2017-10-06
    soldstatus $105,000 Sold
15. 2017-08-17
    status Pending
16. 2017-06-23
    status Active
17. 2017-05-30
    status Pending
18. 2017-05-18
    listed $115,000 Active
19. 2015-06-22
    historical
20. 2014-09-22
    listed $44,900
21. 2014-09-21
    status Active
22. 2014-09-09
    historical
23. 2014-06-14
    historical Contingent - Pending 3rd Party Approval
24. 2014-05-20
    price $44,900
25. 2014-05-20
    price $49,900
26. 2014-05-20
    price $57,500 Active
27. 2014-05-20
    status Active
28. 2014-05-14
    historical
29. 2014-03-13
    listed $59,900 Active
30. 2008-09-08
    soldstatus $120,000
31. 2008-09-05
    soldstatus $120,000
32. 2007-03-28
    listed $139,950
33. 1996-10-21
    soldstatus $17,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $634 · $53/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,320 · $110/mo
• Expected delta: +$686/yr (+$57/mo · 108.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,382
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$634
• − Insurance: −$795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,511
• − Management: −$2,511
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable income: $11,400
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,736
• After-tax cash flow: $10,621/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Shady Hills

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #467
• US rank: #8437

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shady Hills, FL
• Population (ZIP): 16,544

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 12% Asian 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Serbian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.13%
• Current HPI: 342.8714
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+835.3% since first listed

24 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-24 Listed $159,000 HCAR
• 2026-05-24 Listed $159,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-11-11 Listing Removed — HCAR
• 2017-10-10 Sold (Public Records) $105,000 Public Records
• 2017-10-06 Sold (MLS) $105,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-08-17 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-06-23 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-05-30 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-05-18 Listed $115,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-06-22 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-09-22 Listed $44,900 HCAR
• 2014-09-21 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-09-09 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-06-14 Contingent — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-05-20 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-05-20 Price Changed $57,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-05-20 Price Changed $49,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-05-20 Price Changed $44,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-05-14 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-03-13 Listed $59,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-09-08 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records
• 2008-09-05 Sold (MLS) $120,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-03-28 Listed $139,950 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1996-10-21 Sold (Public Records) $17,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $634 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.