10649 Orbit Ter · Palmer Ranch, FL 34241

$273,959

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,187 sqft · Townhouse · 155 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition $172/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to the Ivy at 10649 Orbit Terrace in The Towns at Skye Ranch! Explore this townhome designed for maximum living space and filled with natural light. This home features modern details and plenty of storage, starting with a spacious pantry off the kitchen at the front of the home. The open layout flows through the casual dining area and great room, which extends to an outdoor patio for relaxing or entertaining. Upstairs, the primary suite offers a private retreat with a dual sink vanity and a roomy shower, while an additional bedroom with its own full bath and convenient laundry space complete the second floor. Located in Skye Ranch, a gated, master-planned community in the heart of Sarasota, you'll enjoy Taylor Morrison quality surrounded by preserved natural beauty, including grand oaks, lush palms, forested wetlands, pristine lakes, and native wildlife. With easy access to Clark Road and Lorraine Road, this premier destination offers endless opportunities to explore, experience, and enjoy life. Additional highlights include: updated tile in the main floor living areas, quartz countertops, and window blinds throughout the home. Photos are for representative purposes only. MLS#A4678298

Key facts

• 1st floor living
• Roomy shower
• Spacious pantry

Tags

• 1ST FLOOR LIVING
• SPACIOUS PANTRY
• OUTDOOR PATIO
• PRIVATE RETREAT
• DUAL SINK VANITY
• ROOMY SHOWER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $274k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $209 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $274k).
• Recommended offer: $241k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Sarasota (urban): math 63% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #7 of 73 in FL (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 564 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 7,466 units permitted in Sarasota County in 2024 (2,138 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sarasota County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 155 days — a 12% lower offer ($241k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $241,083 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 155 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.26%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-39,394
• Equity at exit: $40,848

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-49,190
• Equity at exit: $23,687

Cash invested: $76,709 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34241

• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 564
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,878 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,437
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$342 /mo · $4,109/yr
• Insurance: −$114
• HOA: −$172
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$604
• Net cashflow: $209

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,614

Max offer price $273,959

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,490
• Closing costs: $8,219
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $172 · $2,064/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $273,959 Active 155 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $273,959 Active 154 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $273,959 Active 153 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $273,959 Active 152 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $273,959 Active 150 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $273,959 Active 149 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $273,959 Active 147 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $273,959 Active 146 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $273,959 Active 145 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $273,959 Active 144 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $273,959 Active 141 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $273,959 Active 140 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $273,959 Active 139 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $273,959 Active 138 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $273,959 Active 137 DOM
16. 2026-01-14
    listed $273,959 Active 1211-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1351 chars)

    Under Construction. What's Special: Close to Park |Close to Amenities | Convenient 1st Floor Living. New Construction - June Completion! Built by America's Most Trusted Home Builder. Welcome to the Ivy at 10649 Orbit Terrace in The Towns at Skye Ranch! Explore this townhome designed for maximum living space and filled with natural light. This home features modern details and plenty of storage, starting with a spacious pantry off the kitchen at the front of the home. The open layout flows through the casual dining area and great room, which extends to an outdoor patio for relaxing or entertaining. Upstairs, the primary suite offers a private retreat with a dual sink vanity and a roomy shower, while an additional bedroom with its own full bath and convenient laundry space completes the second floor. Discover modern, open-concept townhomes in the gated, master-planned Skye Ranch community in Sarasota. Ideally located at Clark and Lorraine Roads, this premier setting offers endless opportunities to explore and enjoy life. The community preserves natural beauty with grand oaks, lush palms, forested wetlands, pristine lakes, and native wildlife. Additional highlights include: updated tile in the main floor living areas, quartz countertops, and window blinds throughout the home. Photos are for representative purposes only. MLS#A4678298

17. 2026-01-14
    listed $273,959 Active 1351-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1351 chars)

    Under Construction. What's Special: Close to Park |Close to Amenities | Convenient 1st Floor Living. New Construction - June Completion! Built by America's Most Trusted Home Builder. Welcome to the Ivy at 10649 Orbit Terrace in The Towns at Skye Ranch! Explore this townhome designed for maximum living space and filled with natural light. This home features modern details and plenty of storage, starting with a spacious pantry off the kitchen at the front of the home. The open layout flows through the casual dining area and great room, which extends to an outdoor patio for relaxing or entertaining. Upstairs, the primary suite offers a private retreat with a dual sink vanity and a roomy shower, while an additional bedroom with its own full bath and convenient laundry space completes the second floor. Discover modern, open-concept townhomes in the gated, master-planned Skye Ranch community in Sarasota. Ideally located at Clark and Lorraine Roads, this premier setting offers endless opportunities to explore and enjoy life. The community preserves natural beauty with grand oaks, lush palms, forested wetlands, pristine lakes, and native wildlife. Additional highlights include: updated tile in the main floor living areas, quartz countertops, and window blinds throughout the home. Photos are for representative purposes only. MLS#A4678298

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,540
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,346
• − Property taxes: −$4,109
• − Insurance: −$1,370
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,763
• − Management: −$2,763
• − HOA: −$2,064
• − Depreciation: −$7,970
• Taxable loss: −$1,846
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$443
• After-tax cash flow: $2,946/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This townhome is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It is move-in ready and offers a great value for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and make it more inviting
• Rental Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can attract more renters and increase rental value
• Both Add smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more convenient and energy-efficient

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Painting interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and make it more inviting ↑
• Rental Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can attract more renters and increase rental value ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more convenient and energy-efficient ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sarasota
• NCES district ID: 1201680
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $51,167
• Composite: 53.68/100
• National rank: #1428
• State rank: #7 of 73 in FL

Livability — Palmer Ranch

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Sarasota County · 448,376 people
• City population: 22,808
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 16,408
• Household income: $116,412
• Rent vs Own: 11.1% rent · 88.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 69.0

Population outlook (Sarasota County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 452,380 people
• By 2030: 474,175 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 511,577 · +13.1%
• By 2050: 541,467 · +19.7%
• By 2075: 604,947 · +33.7%
• By 2100: 621,965 · +37.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Slovak 3% Scandinavian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Sarasota

• 2024 margin: R (+18.2) · D 40.5% · R 58.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.1pp toward R · 2008: -0.1pp · 2024: -18.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.2 2020: R+10.4 2016: R+11.6 2012: R+7.4 2008: R+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -363.72%
• Current HPI: 278.3404
• Rent YoY: ▬ -0.05%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-14 Listed $273,959 Zillow
• 2026-01-14 Listed $273,959 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid