23686 Earl Webster Rd · Chance, MD 21821

$75,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,338 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 37 Days on market

Built 1915 0.75 ac lot $56/sqft · 63% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks

7.25 acres of country living. The current home is considered a tear-down, but could be a great renovation for someone looking for a project with plenty of land to explore. Current owners do not know the operating condition of any of the appliances or mechanics, including the septic system. Being sold as-is, but let your imagination run wild as this could be the perfect property for you!

Key facts

• 0.75 acre lot
• Built 1915
• Listed 37 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking
• Utilities: Private water source; Septic system
• Home design: Detached structure; Above-grade finished living area reported as 1,338; Ownership is fee simple
• Construction: Mixed construction materials; Pilings foundation; Other structures both above grade and below grade
• Exterior features: Property located outside city limits; Not in tidal water area

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level
• Interior features: No basement; Two or more access exits

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $73k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#427 in MD) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living B+; Watch: employment D, schools F, crime F.
• Somerset County Public Schools (town): math 12% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #22 of 24 in MD (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 49 units permitted in Somerset County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($519 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Somerset County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1915 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $72,750 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1915 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.67% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 61.50%
• DSCR: 3.74
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $200,169
• List price: $75,000
• Delta: -62.53%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
23540 Deal Island Rd	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,304 (-2%)	6mo	$109,900	$84	70
23488 Deal Island Rd	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,456 (+9%)	12mo	$210,000	$144	49
23659 Thomas Price Rd	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,456 (+9%)	5mo	$230,000	$158	45
23494 Temple Ln	0.73mi	3/1.5	1,440 (+8%)	20mo	$340,000	$236	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 73.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.21×
• Total profit: $109,413
• Equity at exit: $67,566

10-year hold

• IRR: 67.4%
• Equity multiple: 13.78×
• Total profit: $268,343
• Equity at exit: $145,709

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21821

• Home prices YoY: 19.4%
• Active inventory: 26
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$79 /mo · $951/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $1,076

Break-even live

Break-even rent $638

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 41%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
23451 Deal Island Rd Deal Island, MD	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,000	$1.25	13d	1	0.59mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $75,000 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $75,000 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $75,000 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $75,000 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $75,000 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $75,000 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $75,000 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $75,000 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $75,000 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $75,000 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $75,000 Active 21 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $75,000 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $75,000 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $75,000 Active 18 DOM
15. 2026-05-12
    listed $75,000 Active 389-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $951 · $79/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $951 · $79/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 63% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$951
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,920
• − Management: −$1,920
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $12,451
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,988
• After-tax cash flow: $9,926/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Somerset County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400570
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $38,810
• Composite: 14.73/100
• National rank: #9396
• State rank: #22 of 24 in MD

Livability — Chance

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #427
• US rank: #24063

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Chance, MD
• Population (ZIP): 736

Population outlook (Somerset County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,474 people
• By 2030: 23,547 · -3.8%
• By 2040: 21,498 · -12.2%
• By 2050: 20,427 · -16.5%
• By 2075: 16,594 · -32.2%
• By 2100: 12,132 · -50.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Slovak 3% Polish 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Somerset

• 2024 margin: R (+17.4) · D 40.2% · R 57.5% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.8pp toward R · 2008: -2.6pp · 2024: -17.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.4 2020: R+14.8 2016: R+17.9 2012: R+2.5 2008: R+2.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 48.66%
• Current HPI: 299.89
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $75,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $951 · +15.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.