864 Bluffview Dr · Cleburne, TX 76031

$238,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,804 sqft · Land · 29 Days on market

Built 2025 5,663 sqft lot $40/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

MLS# 21277516 - Built by NHC - Sep 2026 completion! ~ Model 1804-1 A1 - Monroe The Monroe Plan from our Liberty Series combines thoughtful design and everyday functionality, offering 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, a 2-car garage, and 1,804 square feet of well-planned living space. This single-story home features a split-bedroom layout for added privacy. At the front of the home, you’ll find three secondary bedrooms, a full bathroom, and a conveniently located laundry room. A versatile flex room near the main living area offers the perfect space for a home office, playroom, or sitting area. The bright and open kitchen is the heart of the Monroe Plan, complete with an island and a clear view

Key facts

• Split-bedroom layout
• Walk-in closet
• Versatile flex room

Tags

• SPLIT-BEDROOM LAYOUT
• VERSATILE FLEX ROOM
• BRIGHT AND OPEN KITCHEN
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• ENSUITE BATHROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Builder special listing condition; Possession at closing/funding
• Financial info: Financing accepted: Cash, Conventional, FHA, VA; Treat as clear loan type; No second mortgage
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; HOA fees $480 annually; HOA covers grounds maintenance and management fees

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (garage faces front); 2 covered parking spaces
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Electricity available; Not in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; New construction (2025, incomplete)
• Construction: Frame construction; Composition shingle roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 58' x 100' (less than 0.5 acre); Subdivision: Villages of Mayfield

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (all on one level)
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Loft; Pantry; One living area; One dining area; Room count: 8
• Laundry & utility: Utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $239k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $322 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $231k (3.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $231k (3.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 3.6% in Cleburne — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#460 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Cleburne ISD (town): math 34% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #537 of 826 in TX (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Adams El (math 37% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,995 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 431 students, 76% FRL); Lowell Smith Jr Middle (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,077 of 1,662 statewide, top 66%, 929 students, 68% FRL); Cleburne H S (math 46% / reading 38%, grade F, #730 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 1,976 students, 67% FRL).
• Market conditions: 338 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($235k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $231,141 (3.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.77%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-18,284
• Equity at exit: $35,634

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $10,247
• Equity at exit: $20,663

Cash invested: $66,917 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76031

• Home prices YoY: -17.6%
• Active inventory: 338
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,311 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,253
• Tax from tax record: −$111 /mo · $1,336/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$40
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$485
• Net cashflow: $322

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,904

Max offer price $238,990

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $457	-5% $389	+0% $322	+5% $254	+10% $187
Rent	-10% $139	-5% $231	+0% $322	+5% $413	+10% $504
Rate	-1.0pp $442	-0.5pp $383	base $322	+0.5pp $260	+1.0pp $197

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,748
• Closing costs: $7,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
853 Eagles Nest Dr Cleburne, TX	5.0	3.0	2600	$2,695	$1.04	26d	1	0.03mi
853 Eagles Nest Dr Cleburne, TX	5.0	3.0	2600	$2,490	$0.96	4d	1	0.03mi
516 Quail Meadows Dr Cleburne, TX	5.0	3.0	1804	$2,400	$1.33	6d	1	0.03mi
872 Eagles Nest Dr Cleburne, TX	4.0	2.5	2203	$2,200	$1.00	45d	1	0.05mi
544 Quail Meadows Dr Cleburne, TX	4.0	2.0	1804	$2,100	$1.16	26d	1	0.09mi
805 Bluffview Dr Cleburne, TX	4.0	2.5	2203	$2,245	$1.02	45d	1	0.17mi
605 Mayfield Dr Cleburne, TX	3.0	3.0	2140	$2,340	$1.09	45d	1	0.18mi
303 Eastland St Cleburne, TX	3.0	3.0	1254	$1,950	$1.56	45d	1	0.83mi
1601 Annabelle St Cleburne, TX	4.0	2.0	1763	$2,280	$1.29	0d	1	0.88mi
119 Kylie St Cleburne, TX	4.0	2.0	1763	$2,290	$1.30	0d	1	0.96mi
1218 E James St Cleburne, TX	3.0	2.0	1335	$1,695	$1.27	45d	1	0.97mi
438 Sabine Ave Cleburne, TX	3.0	2.0	1230	$1,650	$1.34	14d	1	1.00mi
301 Pearl St Cleburne, TX	3.0	2.0	1405	$1,900	$1.35	26d	1	1.10mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $40 · $480/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   statusdays on market $238,990 Pending 29 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $238,990 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $238,990 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $238,990 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $238,990 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $238,990 Active 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $238,990 Active 19 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $238,990 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $238,990 Active 17 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $238,990 Active 14 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $238,990 Active 13 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $238,990 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $238,990 Active 11 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $238,990 Active 10 DOM
15. 2026-05-21
    listed $238,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,336 · $111/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,374 · $364/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,038/yr (+$253/mo · 227.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,737
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,387
• − Property taxes: −$1,336
• − Insurance: −$1,195
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,219
• − Management: −$2,219
• − HOA: −$480
• − Depreciation: −$6,952
• Taxable loss: −$51
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$12
• After-tax cash flow: $3,874/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cleburne ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814310
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,788
• Composite: 29.0/100
• National rank: #6618
• State rank: #537 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cleburne

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #460
• US rank: #9292

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cleburne, TX
• City population: 29,538
• Population (ZIP): 18,697

Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,678 people
• By 2030: 189,208 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 207,261 · +15.4%
• By 2050: 223,064 · +24.1%
• By 2075: 259,979 · +44.7%
• By 2100: 275,395 · +53.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 12% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 22% Vietnamese 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.4) · D 23.9% · R 75.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -51.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.4 2020: R+53.0 2016: R+58.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -59.43%
• Current HPI: 277.598
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $238,990 NTREIS

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,336 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.