7769 157th St W · Apple Valley, MN 55124

$180,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 852 sqft · Other public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1989

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

All new appliances - selling as is.

Key facts

• Built 1989
• Listed 20 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $237 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $178k (1.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $177k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 4.0% in Apple Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#10 in MN, #379 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F.
• Rosemount-Apple Valley-Eagan (suburban): math 50% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #58 of 301 in MN (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 277 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,134 units permitted in Dakota County in 2024 (898 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dakota County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($177k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $55k; list at $180k implies a 227% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $177,300 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.63%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.27% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-13,634
• Equity at exit: $26,839

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.19×
• Total profit: $9,456
• Equity at exit: $15,563

Cash invested: $50,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55124

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 277
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,781 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax from tax record: −$151 /mo · $1,814/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$374
• Net cashflow: $237

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,481

Max offer price $180,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $338	-5% $288	+0% $237	+5% $186	+10% $135
Rent	-10% $96	-5% $166	+0% $237	+5% $307	+10% $377
Rate	-1.0pp $327	-0.5pp $282	base $237	+0.5pp $190	+1.0pp $142

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,000
• Closing costs: $5,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7624 157th St W Apple Valley, MN	1.0	1.0	720	$1,395	$1.94	25d	1	0.13mi
7802 Whitney Dr Apple Valley, MN	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,400	$1.40	25d	2	0.30mi
7472 157th St W Apple Valley, MN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1031	$1,468	$1.42	0d	2	0.38mi
15380 Garrett Ave Saint Paul, MN	1.0–2.0	1.0–3.0	1676	$3,296	$1.97	3d	10	0.67mi
15600 Galaxie Ave Saint Paul, MN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1244	$1,642	$1.32	0d	7	0.80mi
15283 Galante Ln Saint Paul, MN	2.0	1.0–2.0	880	$2,250	$2.56	0d	17	0.90mi
7925 166th St W Lakeville, MN	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	18d	1	0.95mi
6859 152nd St W Apple Valley, MN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1062	$2,022	$1.90	0d	13	1.02mi
6780 Fortino St Saint Paul, MN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1117	$4,085	$3.66	0d	12	1.05mi
15734 Foliage Ave Saint Paul, MN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1130	$1,810	$1.60	0d	15	1.06mi
15533 Flight Way Apple Valley, MN	2.0	1.5	976	$1,995	$2.04	25d	1	1.11mi
15531 Flyboat Ln Apple Valley, MN	2.0	1.5	1010	$1,865	$1.85	25d	1	1.13mi
15539 Float Ln Apple Valley, MN	2.0	1.5	927	$1,795	$1.94	25d	1	1.18mi
16947 Garcia Way Unit 2 Rosemount, MN	2.0	1.0	900	$1,595	$1.77	17d	1	1.25mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $180,000 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $180,000 Active 18 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $180,000 Active 17 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $180,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $180,000 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $180,000 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-04
   days on market $180,000 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $180,000 Active 8 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $180,000 Active 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $180,000 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $180,000 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-05-26
    listed $180,000 Active
13. 1993-07-27
    soldstatus $55,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,814 · $151/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,915 · $160/mo
• Expected delta: +$101/yr (+$8/mo · 5.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,367
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,083
• − Property taxes: −$1,814
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,709
• − Management: −$1,709
• − Depreciation: −$5,236
• Taxable loss: −$85
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$20
• After-tax cash flow: $2,859/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rosemount-Apple Valley-Eagan
• NCES district ID: 2732390
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $85,559
• Composite: 49.48/100
• National rank: #2000
• State rank: #58 of 301 in MN

Livability — Apple Valley

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #10
• US rank: #379

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living C Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Apple Valley, MN
• County: Dakota County · 417,704 people
• City population: 55,658
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 55,658
• Household income: $97,727
• Rent vs Own: 26.5% rent · 73.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1406.0

Population outlook (Dakota County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 450,671 people
• By 2030: 465,068 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 486,770 · +8.0%
• By 2050: 498,743 · +10.7%
• By 2075: 533,865 · +18.5%
• By 2100: 550,133 · +22.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Black 10% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 10% Romanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dakota

• 2024 margin: D (+12.9) · D 55.4% · R 42.5% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.5pp · 2024: 12.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+4.7 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+5.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -275.56%
• Current HPI: 227.4734
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.27%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+227.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $180,000 FSBO.com
• 1993-07-27 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,814 · -1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.