16622 Jolie St · Porter Heights, TX 77302

$424,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,317 sqft · Land · 87 Days on market

Built 2026 6,500 sqft lot $183/sqft · 8% below area Est $462k · 8% under $107/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.1/15.0
• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.9/10.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Experience the charm of the Davenport Elevation A. A stunning 1- story residence designed for comfort and style. Boasting 4 Bedrooms, 3full baths, and a dedicated study, this home is perfect for modern living. The Primary suite offers a serene retreat with a bay window and a spa like bath featuring a freestanding tub. Enjoy extended outdoor living on the patio perfect for entertaining or unwinding. This home seamlessly blends elegance and functionality for your ultimate enjoyment.

Key facts

• 6,500 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $425k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-688 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $303k (28.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $250k (41.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $250k (41.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 2.5% in Porter Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#663 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: San Jacinto El (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,921 of 4,322 statewide, top 45%, 547 students, 81% FRL); Moorhead J H (math 35% / reading 42%, grade F, #704 of 1,662 statewide, top 43%, 1,391 students, 82% FRL); Conroe H S (math 32% / reading 51%, grade F, #767 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 4,915 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 34% district-wide (40 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 39% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 1117 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($399k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $250,423 (41.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 41% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.59% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.35%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.94%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 14.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $462,400
• List price: $424,990
• Delta: -8.09%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-112,072
• Equity at exit: $63,367

10-year hold

• IRR: -26.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.27×
• Total profit: $-151,427
• Equity at exit: $36,745

Cash invested: $118,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77302

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 1117
• Price-to-rent: 14.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,504 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,229
• Tax from tax record: −$154 /mo · $1,846/yr
• Insurance: −$177
• HOA: −$107
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$526
• Net cashflow: $-688

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,375

Max offer price $303,407

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-448	-5% $-568	+0% $-688	+5% $-809	+10% $-929
Rent	-10% $-886	-5% $-787	+0% $-688	+5% $-589	+10% $-490
Rate	-1.0pp $-474	-0.5pp $-580	base $-688	+0.5pp $-798	+1.0pp $-910

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $106,248
• Closing costs: $12,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $107 · $1,284/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $424,990 Active 87 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $424,990 Active 84 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $424,990 Active 83 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $424,990 Active 82 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $424,990 Active 81 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $424,990 Active 79 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $424,990 Active 75 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $424,990 Active 74 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $424,990 Active 73 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $424,990 Active 70 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $424,990 Active 69 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $424,990 Active 68 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $424,990 Active 67 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $424,990 Active 66 DOM
15. 2026-04-14
    price $419,990 485-char remark

    Show marketing remark (485 chars)

    Experience the charm of the Davenport Elevation A. A stunning 1- story residence designed for comfort and style. Boasting 4 Bedrooms, 3full baths, and a dedicated study, this home is perfect for modern living. The Primary suite offers a serene retreat with a bay window and a spa like bath featuring a freestanding tub. Enjoy extended outdoor living on the patio perfect for entertaining or unwinding. This home seamlessly blends elegance and functionality for your ultimate enjoyment.

16. 2026-04-10
    price $419,990 486-char remark

    Show marketing remark (486 chars)

    Experience the charm of the Davenport Elevation A. A stunning 1- story residence designed for comfort and style. Boasting 4 Bedrooms, 3 full baths, and a dedicated study, this home is perfect for modern living. The Primary suite offers a serene retreat with a bay window and a spa like bath featuring a freestanding tub. Enjoy extended outdoor living on the patio perfect for entertaining or unwinding. This home seamlessly blends elegance and functionality for your ultimate enjoyment.

17. 2026-03-26
    listed $421,890 Active 486-char remark

    Show marketing remark (486 chars)

    Experience the charm of the Davenport Elevation A. A stunning 1- story residence designed for comfort and style. Boasting 4 Bedrooms, 3 full baths, and a dedicated study, this home is perfect for modern living. The Primary suite offers a serene retreat with a bay window and a spa like bath featuring a freestanding tub. Enjoy extended outdoor living on the patio perfect for entertaining or unwinding. This home seamlessly blends elegance and functionality for your ultimate enjoyment.

18. 2026-03-21
    listed $421,890 Active 485-char remark

    Show marketing remark (485 chars)

    Experience the charm of the Davenport Elevation A. A stunning 1- story residence designed for comfort and style. Boasting 4 Bedrooms, 3full baths, and a dedicated study, this home is perfect for modern living. The Primary suite offers a serene retreat with a bay window and a spa like bath featuring a freestanding tub. Enjoy extended outdoor living on the patio perfect for entertaining or unwinding. This home seamlessly blends elegance and functionality for your ultimate enjoyment.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,846 · $154/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,777 · $648/mo
• Expected delta: +$5,931/yr (+$494/mo · 321.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,051
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,806
• − Property taxes: −$1,846
• − Insurance: −$2,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,404
• − Management: −$2,404
• − HOA: −$1,284
• − Depreciation: −$12,363
• Taxable loss: −$16,182
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,884
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,375/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Porter Heights

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #663
• US rank: #12479

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,546
• Household income: $84,673
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 205.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 19% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -187.56%
• Current HPI: 262.1879
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-0.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $419,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $419,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-26 Listed $421,890 HARMLS
• 2026-03-21 Listed $421,890 Zillow