12019 Cartwright Dr · Bayonet Point, FL 34667

$129,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Manufactured public records · 68 Days on market

Built 1971 5,399 sqft lot Est $130k · at est. $20/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.8/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.7/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

OWNER FINANCING AVAILABLE AND PREFERRED! Welcome to this beautifully updated 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom home in the popular Ponderosa Park community in Hudson. This home has been completely remodeled and is truly move-in ready, with a clean, modern feel throughout. Inside, you’ll find a spacious living room filled with natural light that flows into the dining area and updated kitchen. The kitchen features newer cabinetry, countertops, and stainless steel appliances, making it both functional and stylish. Both bedrooms are located side by side and offer comfortable space, with the primary bedroom featuring a large walk-in closet and its own private bath. The second bathroom has also bee

Key facts

• 5,399 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Unfurnished
• Financial info: Total annual association fee $250; total monthly fees $20.83
• HOA & community: Has HOA (Ponderosa Park Marylou Ecksteing); HOA required, $250 annually ($20.83/month); HOA includes pool, maintenance of grounds, and recreational facilities; Community amenities: clubhouse, pool, recreation facilities, shuffleboard court; Deed restrictions; Senior community; Cats and dogs allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Public utilities
• Home design: Residential mobile home (single wide); One story; Faces east; Entry on one level
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built on a 0.12-acre lot (approx. 0 to less than 1/4 acre)
• Exterior features: Sidewalk

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Laundry: Other

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $129k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $473 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $129k).
• Recommended offer: $121k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.7% vs local median 5.3% in Bayonet Point — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#485 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities D+, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Hudson Academy (math 35% / reading 30%, grade F, #443 of 571 statewide, top 78%, 964 students, 80% FRL); Fivay High School (math 20% / reading 28%, grade F, #529 of 667 statewide, top 80%, 1,610 students, 78% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 48% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 28% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-23 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.3%/yr); 800 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $892 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $100k; 29% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $121,260 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.70%
• DSCR: 1.70
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $129,600
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7309 Blue Lake Dr	0.12mi	2/2.0 (-1)	960 (0%)	4mo	$115,000	$120	86
12110 Bonanza Dr	0.16mi	2/2.0 (-1)	962 (+0%)	2mo	$90,000	$94	85
7303 Blue Lake Dr	0.12mi	2/2.0 (-1)	960 (0%)	13mo	$165,000	$172	78
7412 Grand Pine Dr	0.27mi	2/2.0 (-1)	960 (0%)	12mo	$145,000	$151	73
12119 Bonanza Dr	0.16mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,056 (+10%)	1mo	$120,000	$114	70
12201 Bonanza Dr	0.18mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,056 (+10%)	11mo	$142,500	$135	61
7304 Osage Dr	0.29mi	2/2.0 (-1)	896 (-7%)	13mo	$94,000	$105	60
12210 Bonanza Dr	0.22mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,056 (+10%)	12mo	$178,500	$169	58
12343 Lariat Way	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,068 (+11%)	13mo	$165,000	$154	55
7318 Allyson St	0.32mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,080 (+12%)	11mo	$145,000	$134	50
7200 Johnson Rd	0.60mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,080 (+12%)	17mo	$148,000	$137	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.11×
• Total profit: $4,140
• Equity at exit: $19,234

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.63×
• Total profit: $22,814
• Equity at exit: $11,154

Cash invested: $36,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34667

• Rents YoY: -2.3%
• Active inventory: 800
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,738 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax from tax record: −$150 /mo · $1,801/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$20
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$365
• Net cashflow: $473

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,140

Max offer price $129,000

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $546	-5% $509	+0% $473	+5% $436	+10% $400
Rent	-10% $335	-5% $404	+0% $473	+5% $541	+10% $610
Rate	-1.0pp $538	-0.5pp $505	base $473	+0.5pp $439	+1.0pp $405

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,250
• Closing costs: $3,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12027 Hoosier Ct #203 Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1103	$1,550	$1.41	26d	1	0.40mi
12041 Hoosier Ct #204 Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1103	$1,495	$1.36	20d	1	0.42mi
12041 Hoosier Ct #204 Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1103	$1,495	$1.36	26d	1	0.42mi
7616 Danube Dr Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1125	$1,350	$1.20	26d	1	0.44mi
7602 Danube Dr Unit 7602 Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1125	$1,600	$1.42	26d	1	0.48mi
7433 Greystone Dr #7433 Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1029	$1,300	$1.26	20d	1	0.53mi
7539 Gulf Highlands Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.5	936	$1,550	$1.66	7d	1	0.55mi
12702 Social Dr Hudson, FL	2.0	1.0	1032	$1,500	$1.45	7d	1	0.61mi
7715 Sue Ellen Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1080	$1,495	$1.38	5d	1	0.69mi
12809 College Hill Dr Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1114	$1,780	$1.60	7d	1	0.76mi
7300 Country Club Dr Hudson, FL	2.0	1.0	926	$1,400	$1.51	4d	1	0.77mi
11611 Constance Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	984	$1,540	$1.57	13d	1	0.78mi
11611 Constance Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	984	$1,540	$1.57	26d	1	0.78mi
7804 Topay Ln Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1125	$1,795	$1.60	1d	1	0.79mi
12200 Hudson Ridge Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1107	$1,704	$1.54	4d	10	0.87mi
7213 Seward Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	700	$1,500	$2.14	26d	1	0.94mi
6731 Sandra Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	816	$1,575	$1.93	26d	1	0.97mi
11103 Harding Dr Unit 2 Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	760	$1,450	$1.91	22d	1	1.01mi
13113 Bartow St Hudson, FL	2.0	1.0	528	$1,190	$2.25	26d	1	1.05mi
11031 Hassle Ave Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	1006	$1,595	$1.59	26d	1	1.06mi
8304 Mill Creek Ln Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,650	$1.65	26d	1	1.07mi
11138 Yellowwood Ln Unit NA Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,800	$1.80	26d	1	1.13mi
8161 Braddock Cir #1 Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,595	$1.59	20d	1	1.14mi
13128 Beacon Ct Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1070	$1,600	$1.50	26d	1	1.30mi
10803 Hyssop St Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	1120	$1,500	$1.34	13d	1	1.32mi
11635 Salmon Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.5	816	$1,500	$1.84	26d	1	1.33mi
7438 Coventry Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	985	$1,600	$1.62	14d	1	1.37mi
13315 Neptune Dr Hudson, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$2,000	$2.22	26d	1	1.39mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $20 · $240/yr

Listing history 49 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $129,000 Active 68 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,000 Active 65 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,000 Active 64 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,000 Active 63 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,000 Active 62 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,000 Active 60 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,000 Active 56 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,000 Active 55 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $129,000 Active 54 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $129,000 Active 51 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,000 Active 50 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,000 Active 49 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,000 Active 48 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,000 Active 47 DOM
15. 2026-05-12
    price $129,000
16. 2026-04-14
    listed $134,900 Active
17. 2025-06-23
    soldstatus $100,000
18. 2025-05-14
    historical
19. 2025-05-13
    price $109,000
20. 2025-05-01
    listed $129,000 Active
21. 2024-08-01
    soldstatus $72,000
22. 2024-01-20
    price $139,000
23. 2024-01-09
    price $149,900
24. 2023-12-12
    price $159,900
25. 2023-12-12
    status Active
26. 2023-10-04
    price $129,900
27. 2023-09-26
    price $139,900
28. 2023-09-19
    listed $149,900 Active
29. 2023-06-23
    soldstatus $112,500 Closed
30. 2023-06-23
    soldstatus $112,500
31. 2023-06-11
    status Pending
32. 2023-04-14
    status Active
33. 2023-04-08
    status Pending
34. 2023-01-03
    listed $112,500 Active
35. 2022-04-05
    soldstatus $85,000
36. 2021-09-30
    historical
37. 2021-05-20
    listed $84,900 Active
38. 2020-09-05
    historical
39. 2020-03-05
    listed $85,000 Active
40. 2020-02-20
    historical
41. 2020-01-10
    listed $83,000 Active
42. 2017-06-05
    soldstatus $45,000
43. 2017-05-23
    soldstatus $44,800 Sold
44. 2017-05-10
    status Pending
45. 2017-03-22
    price $50,000
46. 2017-01-24
    price $55,000
47. 2016-12-11
    price $57,900
48. 2016-10-24
    listed $60,000 Active
49. 1972-11-01
    soldstatus $15,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,801 · $150/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,801 · $150/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 43% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥114°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,856
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,226
• − Property taxes: −$1,801
• − Insurance: −$645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,668
• − Management: −$1,668
• − HOA: −$240
• − Depreciation: −$3,753
• Taxable income: $3,854
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$925
• After-tax cash flow: $4,747/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bayonet Point

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #485
• US rank: #8934

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bayonet Point, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 30,689
• Household income: $51,280
• Rent vs Own: 23.0% rent · 77.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 946.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -183.96%
• Current HPI: 307.5552
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.26%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+732.3% since first listed

35 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $129,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-14 Listed $134,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-23 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records
• 2025-05-14 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-13 Price Changed $109,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-01 Listed $129,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $72,000 Public Records
• 2024-01-20 Price Changed $139,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-09 Price Changed $149,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-12-12 Price Changed $159,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-12-12 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-04 Price Changed $129,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-26 Price Changed $139,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-19 Listed $149,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-06-23 Sold (Public Records) $112,500 Public Records
• 2023-06-23 Sold (MLS) $112,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-06-11 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-04-14 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-04-08 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-01-03 Listed $112,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-04-05 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records
• 2021-09-30 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-05-20 Listed $84,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-09-05 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-03-05 Listed $85,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-02-20 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-01-10 Listed $83,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-06-05 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records
• 2017-05-23 Sold (MLS) $44,800 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-05-10 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-03-22 Price Changed $50,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-01-24 Price Changed $55,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-12-11 Price Changed $57,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-10-24 Listed $60,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1972-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $15,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,801 · +78.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.