300 Poker Chip #11 · Horseshoe Bay, TX 78657

$185,000

1 bd · 2.0 ba · 744 sqft · Condo public records · 343 Days on market

Built 1987 $150/mo HOA · 11% of rent ↓ 31% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.8/30.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nestled in the heart of the picturesque Horseshoe Bay, this one-bedroom, one-and-a-half-bathroom fully renovated townhome offers a serene retreat with unrivaled views of the of Lake LBJ. A large private deck off the living room and close proximity to local restaurants, shops and amenities makes this a great option in the community.

Key facts

• Private deck
• Unrivaled views
• $150 HOA

Tags

• PRIVATE DECK
• UNRIVALED VIEWS
• CLOSE PROXIMITY TO RESTAURANTS
• CLOSE PROXIMITY TO SHOPS
• CLOSE PROXIMITY TO AMENITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-368 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $120k (35.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $137k (25.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $120k (35.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 3.9% vs local median 1.0% in Horseshoe Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#625 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A-, housing A-; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Llano ISD (town): math 40% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #359 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 1223 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 121 units permitted in Llano County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (0.9% local appreciation)).
• Llano County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 343 days — a 12% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask is 14700% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 55% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $119,977 (35.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 343 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.53%
• DSCR: 0.62
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.95% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-20,351
• Equity at exit: $62,630

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-13,257
• Equity at exit: $82,825

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78657

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 1223
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,372 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$255 /mo · $3,056/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$150
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$288
• Net cashflow: $-368

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,838

Max offer price $119,977

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $150 · $1,800/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-05-06
   historical $995
2. 2026-04-29
   price $995
3. 2025-12-16
   price $1,100
4. 2025-10-23
   price $185,000 333-char remark

   Show marketing remark (333 chars)

   Nestled in the heart of the picturesque Horseshoe Bay, this one-bedroom, one-and-a-half-bathroom fully renovated townhome offers a serene retreat with unrivaled views of the of Lake LBJ. A large private deck off the living room and close proximity to local restaurants, shops and amenities makes this a great option in the community.

5. 2025-10-01
   price $190,000 333-char remark

   Show marketing remark (333 chars)

   Nestled in the heart of the picturesque Horseshoe Bay, this one-bedroom, one-and-a-half-bathroom fully renovated townhome offers a serene retreat with unrivaled views of the of Lake LBJ. A large private deck off the living room and close proximity to local restaurants, shops and amenities makes this a great option in the community.

6. 2025-08-09
   price $195,000 333-char remark

   Show marketing remark (333 chars)

   Nestled in the heart of the picturesque Horseshoe Bay, this one-bedroom, one-and-a-half-bathroom fully renovated townhome offers a serene retreat with unrivaled views of the of Lake LBJ. A large private deck off the living room and close proximity to local restaurants, shops and amenities makes this a great option in the community.

7. 2025-08-09
   listed $1,250

   Show marketing remark (333 chars)

   Nestled in the heart of the picturesque Horseshoe Bay, this one-bedroom, one-and-a-half-bathroom fully renovated townhome offers a serene retreat with unrivaled views of the of Lake LBJ. A large private deck off the living room and close proximity to local restaurants, shops and amenities makes this a great option in the community.

8. 2025-06-25
   price $200,000 333-char remark

   Show marketing remark (333 chars)

   Nestled in the heart of the picturesque Horseshoe Bay, this one-bedroom, one-and-a-half-bathroom fully renovated townhome offers a serene retreat with unrivaled views of the of Lake LBJ. A large private deck off the living room and close proximity to local restaurants, shops and amenities makes this a great option in the community.

9. 2025-06-17
   listed $225,000 Active 333-char remark

   Show marketing remark (333 chars)

   Nestled in the heart of the picturesque Horseshoe Bay, this one-bedroom, one-and-a-half-bathroom fully renovated townhome offers a serene retreat with unrivaled views of the of Lake LBJ. A large private deck off the living room and close proximity to local restaurants, shops and amenities makes this a great option in the community.

10. 2025-01-31
    historical $1,150
11. 2025-01-22
    listed $1,150
12. 2025-01-07
    historical $1,400
13. 2024-09-26
    listed $1,400
14. 2024-02-14
    historical $1,300
15. 2023-10-20
    price $1,300
16. 2023-10-08
    price $1,500
17. 2023-09-23
    listed $1,600
18. 2006-02-28
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,056 · $255/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,386 · $282/mo
• Expected delta: +$330/yr (+$27/mo · 10.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 55% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,463
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$3,056
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,317
• − Management: −$1,317
• − HOA: −$1,800
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable loss: −$7,697
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,847
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,570/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Llano ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827810
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $46,746
• Composite: 35.42/100
• National rank: #4940
• State rank: #359 of 826 in TX

Livability — Horseshoe Bay

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #625
• US rank: #11913

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A- Health & safety B- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Horseshoe Bay, TX
• County: Llano County · 16,310 people
• City population: 7,591
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 7,591
• Household income: $91,452
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 45.0

Population outlook (Llano County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,847 people
• By 2030: 21,350 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 22,281 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 23,173 · +11.2%
• By 2075: 25,526 · +22.4%
• By 2100: 25,866 · +24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Portuguese 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Llano

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.9) · D 19.2% · R 80.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.6pp toward R · 2008: -52.2pp · 2024: -60.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.9 2020: R+60.1 2016: R+62.2 2012: R+60.4 2008: R+52.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.95%
• Current HPI: 229.9918
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-31.2% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Rental Removed $995 HLMLS
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $995 HLMLS
• 2025-12-16 Price Changed $1,100 HLMLS
• 2025-10-23 Price Changed $185,000 HLMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2025-10-01 Price Changed $190,000 HLMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2025-08-09 Price Changed $195,000 HLMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2025-08-09 Listed for Rent $1,250 HLMLS
• 2025-06-25 Price Changed $200,000 HLMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2025-06-17 Listed $225,000 HLMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2025-01-31 Rental Removed $1,150 HLMLS
• 2025-01-22 Listed for Rent $1,150 HLMLS
• 2025-01-07 Rental Removed $1,400 HLMLS
• 2024-09-26 Listed for Rent $1,400 HLMLS
• 2024-02-14 Rental Removed $1,300 HLMLS
• 2023-10-20 Price Changed $1,300 HLMLS
• 2023-10-08 Price Changed $1,500 HLMLS
• 2023-09-23 Listed for Rent $1,600 HLMLS
• 2006-02-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+10.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,056 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.