159 Ponce DE Leon Dr · Ormond Beach, FL 32176

$289,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,724 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 1950 10,000 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.6/30.0
• DSCR +9.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Fixer-Upper Opportunity: Coastal Gem One Block from Ormond Beach! Metal roof installed 2019 and A/C 2020. Discover this prime investment property in the heart of Ormond Beach, Florida – just one block from the sandy shores and crashing waves of the Atlantic! This spacious 4-bedroom, 3-bathroom home offers endless potential for savvy flippers or renovators looking to transform it into a beach"y" paradise. This home features a  Brand-New Metal Roof with four well-sized bedrooms and three full bathrooms, ideal for family living or vacation rentals once updated. Just minutes to the beach, nearby shops, restaurants, and parks –

Key facts

• Brand-new metal roof
• 0.23 acre lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• ONE BLOCK FROM ORMOND BEACH
• BRAND-NEW METAL ROOF
• PRIME INVESTMENT PROPERTY
• HIGH-DEMAND COASTAL MARKET

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.23 acres (about 929 m²); Asphalt road access; Zoned XA
• Financial info: Homestead exemption claimed
• HOA & community: Located in the Rosemont development; No association indicated

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Broadband/high-speed internet available; Cable available; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Faces west; Residential property
• Construction: Frame construction; Shingle roof; Block foundation; Built with living area ~1724 sq ft (public records)
• Exterior features: Private in-ground spa; Sidewalk

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Masonry family room fireplace; French doors
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $777 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $290k).
• Recommended offer: $281k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 3.9% in Ormond Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#55 in FL, #965 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Volusia (suburban): math 44% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #47 of 73 in FL (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 406 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,402 units permitted in Volusia County in 2024 (681 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,239/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($78k/yr) (locally 298% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Volusia County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.2% rent growth), your $81k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $155k; list at $290k implies a 87% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $281,290 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.49%
• DSCR: 1.51
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.22% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $9,832
• Equity at exit: $43,238

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.28×
• Total profit: $103,717
• Equity at exit: $25,073

Cash invested: $81,197 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32176

• Rents YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 406
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,239 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,521
• Tax from tax record: −$139 /mo · $1,674/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$680
• Net cashflow: $777

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,254

Max offer price $289,990

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $942	-5% $860	+0% $777	+5% $695	+10% $613
Rent	-10% $522	-5% $650	+0% $777	+5% $905	+10% $1,033
Rate	-1.0pp $924	-0.5pp $851	base $777	+0.5pp $702	+1.0pp $626

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,498
• Closing costs: $8,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
94 Ivanhoe Dr Ormond Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	2074	$4,500	$2.17	24d	1	0.30mi
497 Grandview Ave Ormond Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1590	$2,800	$1.76	24d	1	0.48mi
462 Magnolia St Ormond Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1502	$2,100	$1.40	15d	1	0.56mi
122 Magnolia Dr Ormond Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1484	$2,275	$1.53	24d	1	0.79mi
288 Boylston Ave Daytona Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1320	$2,200	$1.67	24d	1	0.90mi
733 Buena Vista Ave Ormond Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1485	$2,400	$1.62	24d	1	0.95mi
2300 N Atlantic Ave #502 Daytona Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	2000	$4,000	$2.00	24d	1	1.07mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-04
   price $289,990
3. 2026-05-01
   status Active
4. 2026-04-14
   status Pending
5. 2026-03-12
   listed $329,990 Active
6. 2013-07-03
   soldstatus $155,000
7. 1999-10-26
   soldstatus $88,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,674 · $139/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,407 · $201/mo
• Expected delta: +$733/yr (+$61/mo · 43.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 26% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,863
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,244
• − Property taxes: −$1,674
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,109
• − Management: −$3,109
• − Depreciation: −$8,436
• Taxable income: $4,842
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,162
• After-tax cash flow: $8,168/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Volusia
• NCES district ID: 1201920
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $42,946
• Composite: 39.2/100
• National rank: #4019
• State rank: #47 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ormond Beach

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #55
• US rank: #965

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ormond Beach, FL
• County: Volusia County · 556,871 people
• City population: 69,624
• Metro: Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 14,841
• Household income: $78,410
• Rent vs Own: 16.3% rent · 83.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 298.0

Population outlook (Volusia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 572,749 people
• By 2030: 598,695 · +4.5%
• By 2040: 644,880 · +12.6%
• By 2050: 681,451 · +19.0%
• By 2075: 759,957 · +32.7%
• By 2100: 778,902 · +36.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Volusia

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.8) · D 38.7% · R 60.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.4pp toward R · 2008: 5.7pp · 2024: -21.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.8 2020: R+14.1 2016: R+13.1 2012: R+1.2 2008: D+5.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -476.64%
• Current HPI: 319.6419
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.22%
• Metro: Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+229.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $289,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-01 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-14 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-12 Listed $329,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-07-03 Sold (Public Records) $155,000 Public Records
• 1999-10-26 Sold (Public Records) $88,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,674 · +4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.