Is 883 Gulf Cedar Dr in Bolivar Peninsula, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it C- with a 5.8% cap rate and $-988/mo modeled cash flow at a $785,000 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 883 Gulf Cedar Dr?

The modeled cap rate is 5.8% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $6,552/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

C- Composite 50.21

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +15.0/15.0
Cash flow +11.1/30.0
Schools +5.1/10.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
1% rule +3.3/10.0
DSCR +3.2/10.0
Livability +3.2/5.0
Appreciation +2.7/10.0
Rent growth +2.5/5.0

$785,000

883 Gulf Cedar Dr · Bolivar Peninsula, TX 77650

5 bd · 4.5 ba · 2,470 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 123 Days on market

Built 2009 Good condition 0.53 ac lot 2-car garage $318/sqft · 30% below area Est $1.124M · 30% under ↓ 5% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

Experience coastal living at its finest in this custom-built beach home where thoughtful design meets exceptional craftsmanship. The spacious primary suite offers a private retreat with a beautifully appointed ensuite bathroom and double doors that open directly to the deck, allowing you to enjoy the coastal breeze and stunning views. Four additional bedrooms provide plenty of space for family and guests, with two also featuring double doors leading to the deck. Upstairs, you'll find two full bathrooms, a stylish wet bar, and access to another expansive deck, making it the perfect space for entertaining or relaxing after a day at the beach.

Key facts

Stylish wet bar
Double doors
Private retreat

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 5-bed/4.5-bath single-family listed at $785k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-988 ($-12k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $610k (22.2% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $655k (16.5% below list).
Recommended offer: $610k (22.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 2.6% in Bolivar Peninsula — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

Location reads 65/100 on livability (#719 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
High Island ISD (rural): math 65% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #177 of 1,141 in TX (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: High Island School (math 42% / reading 42%, 151 students, 60% FRL).
Zoned-school proficiency averages 42% at this address vs 58% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the High Island ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Market conditions: 1065 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
At $6,552/mo this rent would consume 110% of the median local household income ($72k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $24k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 123 days — a 12% lower offer ($691k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
6 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $669/mo.
Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone VE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $610,390 (22.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 123 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.83% ✗
Cap rate: 5.80%
Cash-on-cash: -1.74%
DSCR: 0.92
GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $1,124,337
List price: $785,000
Delta: -30.18%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3228 Gulf Castle Dr	0.73mi	4/4.5 (-1)	2,628 (+6%)	12mo	$1,100,000	$419	40
3297 Prides Way	0.54mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,056 (-17%)	2mo	$627,000	$305	39
3116 James	0.99mi	5/4.5	2,804 (+14%)	4mo	$1,395,000	$498	39
2930 Tropicana	1.45mi	4/4.0 (-1)	2,574 (+4%)	20mo	$1,385,000	$538	35
3244 Gulf Castle Dr	0.67mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,028 (+23%)	3mo	$1,550,000	$512	32
907 S Cv	1.27mi	6/3.0 (+1)	2,496 (+1%)	24mo	$710,000	$284	32
19 N Stingaree Dr	1.48mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,380 (-4%)	22mo	$650,000	$273	29
3001 Vista Del Mar Ct	1.19mi	4/3.0 (-1)	1,920 (-22%)	2mo	$775,000	$404	27
3025 Carioca Ct	1.13mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,790 (+13%)	13mo	$699,000	$251	24
950 Copacabana Dr	1.22mi	4/3.0 (-1)	1,926 (-22%)	31mo	$619,900	$322	9
956 Copacabana Dr	1.22mi	4/3.0 (-1)	1,930 (-22%)	32mo	$625,000	$324	9

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -25.4%
Equity multiple: 0.14×
Total profit: $-189,604
Equity at exit: $117,046

10-year hold

IRR: -21.4%
Equity multiple: -0.11×
Total profit: $-243,918
Equity at exit: $67,872

Cash invested: $219,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 9 active · 5 under contract
Months of supply: 18.0 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $699,000 ($315/sqft)
Median days on market: 168 d
This list price: 56% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +44.4% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77650

Home prices YoY: -1.9%
Active inventory: 1065
Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $6,552 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$4,117
Tax from tax record: −$1,052 /mo · $12,622/yr
Insurance: −$327
Flood insurance flood zone: −$669 /mo · $8,028/yr
HOA: −$0
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,376
Net cashflow: $-988

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,803

Max offer price $610,390

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-544	-5% $-766	+0% $-988	+5% $-1,211	+10% $-1,433
Rent	-10% $-1,506	-5% $-1,247	+0% $-988	+5% $-730	+10% $-471
Rate	-1.0pp $-593	-0.5pp $-789	base $-988	+0.5pp $-1,192	+1.0pp $-1,399

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $196,250
Closing costs: $23,550
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
907 S Cove Dr Unit 1223255P Crystal Beach, TX	6.0	3.0	2497	$6,552	$2.62	0d	1	1.27mi

Property features AI

Exterior

Parking: 2-car garageGarage parking
Security: Storm/security shutters
Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
Home design: Residential propertyHas a view
Construction: Built in 2009Cement sidingWood sidingComposition and metal roofPillar/post/pier foundation
Exterior features: Covered patioDeckPorchPatioPrivate yardStorm/security shuttersCleared lotCorner lotViews

Interior

Kitchen: DishwasherElectric ovenElectric rangeFree-standing rangeMicrowaveDisposalOven
Bedrooms: Up to 6 possible bedrooms
Flooring: CarpetTileWood
Bathrooms: 4 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central air conditioning (electric)Thermostat (programmable)
Interior features: Wet barBreakfast barCrown moldingDouble vanityGranite countersHigh ceilingsKitchen/family room comboPrimary bedroom with private bathPantry / Walk-in pantryTub/showerWindow treatmentsProgrammable thermostatSatellite dish
Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookup

Listing history 50 events

2026-11-08

days on market $785,000 Active 123 DOM
2026-11-07

days on market $785,000 Active 122 DOM
2026-11-06

days on market $785,000 Active 121 DOM
2026-11-05

days on market $785,000 Active 120 DOM
2026-11-04

days on market $785,000 Active 119 DOM
2026-11-02

days on market $785,000 Active 117 DOM
2026-11-01

days on market $785,000 Active 116 DOM
2026-10-31

days on market $785,000 Active 115 DOM
2026-10-31

days on market $785,000 Active 114 DOM
2026-10-29

days on market $785,000 Active 113 DOM
2026-10-28

days on market $785,000 Active 112 DOM
2026-10-27

days on market $785,000 Active 111 DOM
2026-10-26

days on market $785,000 Active 110 DOM
2026-10-25

days on market $785,000 Active 109 DOM
2026-10-24

days on market $785,000 Active 108 DOM
2026-10-23

days on market $785,000 Active 107 DOM
2026-10-22

days on market $785,000 Active 106 DOM
2026-10-21

days on market $785,000 Active 105 DOM
2026-10-20

days on market $785,000 Active 104 DOM
2026-10-19

days on market $785,000 Active 103 DOM
2026-10-18

days on market $785,000 Active 102 DOM
2026-10-17

days on market $785,000 Active 101 DOM
2026-10-16

days on market $785,000 Active 100 DOM
2026-10-15

days on market $785,000 Active 99 DOM
2026-10-14

days on market $785,000 Active 98 DOM
2026-10-13

days on market $785,000 Active 97 DOM
2026-10-12

days on market $785,000 Active 96 DOM
2026-10-11

days on market $785,000 Active 95 DOM
2026-10-10

days on market $785,000 Active 94 DOM
2026-10-09

days on market $785,000 Active 93 DOM
2026-10-08

days on market $785,000 Active 92 DOM
2026-10-07

days on market $785,000 Active 91 DOM
2026-10-06

days on market $785,000 Active 90 DOM
2026-10-05

days on market $785,000 Active 89 DOM
2026-10-04

days on market $785,000 Active 88 DOM
2026-10-03

days on market $785,000 Active 87 DOM
2026-10-02

days on market $785,000 Active 86 DOM
2026-10-01

days on market $785,000 Active 85 DOM
2026-09-30

days on market $785,000 Active 84 DOM
2026-09-29

days on market $785,000 Active 83 DOM
2026-09-28

days on market $785,000 Active 82 DOM
2026-09-27

days on market $785,000 Active 81 DOM
2026-09-26

days on market $785,000 Active 80 DOM
2026-09-25

days on market $785,000 Active 79 DOM
2026-09-24

days on market $785,000 Active 78 DOM
2026-09-23

days on market $785,000 Active 77 DOM
2026-09-21

days on market $785,000 Active 75 DOM
2026-09-20

days on market $785,000 Active 74 DOM
2026-09-19

days on market $785,000 Active 72 DOM
2026-09-17

days on market $785,000 Active 71 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

Current annual tax: $12,622 · $1,052/mo
Projected year-2 tax: $14,366 · $1,197/mo
Expected delta: +$1,744/yr (+$145/mo · 13.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone VE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $78,624
− Mortgage interest: −$43,972
− Property taxes: −$12,622
− Insurance: −$11,953
− Repairs & maintenance: −$6,290
− Management: −$6,290
− Depreciation: −$22,836
Taxable loss: −$25,339

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,081
After-tax cash flow: $-5,780/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $12,350–$37,050 screening

This custom-built beach home offers a good condition with minimal repairs needed. It's move-in ready with a good ROI potential for both resale and rental.

Components & finishes AI

Roof tile · good Flooring tile Counters granite Appliances stainless steel HVAC central · new lt5

Value-add opportunities

Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
Both Replace worn flooring — Improves comfort and aesthetics ↑
Both Update kitchen appliances — Modernizes the space and attracts buyers ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

Zoned Schools

High High Island School

Schools (NCES district)

District: High Island ISD
NCES district ID: 4823160
Math proficiency: 65% ▲ 30.00%
Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 15.00%
Median HH income: $49,447
Composite: 50.69/100
National rank: #3933
State rank: #177 of 1141 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 65/100

Livability — Bolivar Peninsula

Score: 65/100
State rank: #719
US rank: #13437

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place: Bolivar Peninsula, TX
County: Galveston · 390,640 people
City population: 2,957
Metro: Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX
Population (ZIP): 2,362
Household income: $71,700
Rent vs Own: 7.9% rent · 92.1% own

Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 390,640 people
By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 10% Black 8%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 14% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -4.52%
Current HPI: 231.5074
Rent YoY: —
Metro: —
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

-4.8% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

2026-07-08 Listed $785,000 HARMLS
2026-06-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
2025-11-02 Listed $850,000 HARMLS
2025-10-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
2025-09-11 Price Changed $850,000 HARMLS
2025-04-17 Listed $875,000 HARMLS
2023-09-18 Listing Removed — HARMLS
2023-03-28 Listed $975,000 HARMLS
2022-12-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
2022-02-04 Relisted — HARMLS
2022-01-17 Pending — HARMLS
2022-01-11 Pending — HARMLS
2021-04-23 Listed $825,000 HARMLS
2006-12-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
2006-12-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $12,622 · -30.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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